Best Long-Shot Bets on College Football Conference Championship Winners (2022)
We’re just a week away from the 2022 college football campaign kicking off, so it’s time to check out the futures market to see where we can find some value. Last week, I put out my best picks for who I believe will win each Power Five conference. This time I’ll dive into my top four schools that, if everything goes right, can cash in as long-shots and win their conference.
Click here to compare all conference championship odds.
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ACC Best Long-Shot Bet
In my opinion, the ACC is the conference that is the most “up for grabs.†Clemson comes in as the favorite (-155 via FanDuel), but I don’t think they’ll have as much of a cakewalk as most of the experts expect. DJ Uiagalelei was very underwhelming in his first full year at the Tigers’ helm. Dabo Swinney is losing both of his coordinators, with Tony Elliot heading to Virginia and Brent Venables to Oklahoma. It could be an unstable year for Clemson, leading to upsets.
Enter Pittsburgh. While they’re losing Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett to the draft and Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison to USC, I think the Panthers have an excellent opportunity to make some noise again this year. They will return all five offensive linemen in 2022, which is massive news. That will take much of the burden off Kedon Slovis, who came over from USC in the transfer portal. The senior quarterback boasts a 68.4% career completion rate and a 58/24 TD/INT ratio. I think he’s set to excel behind an offensive line that will keep him upright for the most part. Give me No. 17 Pittsburgh at 10/1 to win the ACC.
Bet: Pittsburgh (+1000 via FanDuel)
Big 12 Best Long-Shot Bet
No. 10 ranked Baylor doesn’t seem to be getting much love after a year where they went 12-2, won the Big 12 Championship and topped Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. They enter the 2022 campaign with the fourth-shortest odds to repeat as Big 12 Champs, trailing Oklahoma (+190), Texas (+300) and Oklahoma State (+550).
Similar to Pittsburgh, the Bears will return a very experienced offensive line featuring at least three players with five years of experience. That should help redshirt sophomore Blake Shapen settle in and find success. Shapen went 62-86 (72.1%) last year with five touchdowns and no interceptions in a limited role. On the flip side, the Bears will build off of a year where they were ranked 12th in points allowed (19.2 ppg) and 30th in yards allowed per game (353.2 ypg). This conference features a rebuilding Oklahoma team and a youthful Texas program, which could very well be looking forward to their upcoming moves to the SEC. Let’s take a shot with No. 10 Baylor this year.
Bet: Baylor (+650 via Caesars)
Big Ten Best Long-Shot Bet
I don’t think I’ve ever been as confident in a team as I am in Ohio State heading into the 2022 campaign. They return an offensive duo of C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and it seems the Buckeyes are on a revenge tour this time around. Ryan Day’s squad comes in as high as (-250 via Caesars) to win the Big Ten, giving them the shortest odds out of any school in the country to win their respective conference.
However, if you’re looking for a value play, look no further than Paul Chryst and the 18th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers. This is a hard-nosed team playing in the Big Ten West, which is the easier side of the conference. It will be another season of running the ball and playing defense for the Badgers, who ranked first in the country last year in yards against per game (239.7 ypg) and third in points against (16.2 points per game). Wisconsin’s defense is losing several starters, but they’ve always proven the ability to plug in play on the defensive side of the ball. The defense will be key if it comes down to taking on a high-flying OSU team in the championship game.
Offensively, the Badgers will turn to Graham Mertz to handle the quarterback play. Mertz hasn’t been very reliable during his tenure at Wisconsin. However, this will be his third year running the offense, so the Badger faithful are hoping he can finally take the leap forward. If not, they can rely on a backfield featuring Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi to carry the load. This one is a long shot, but Wisconsin doesn’t have an overwhelming schedule and should be able to make its way to the conference title game.
Bet: Wisconsin (+1200 via Caesars)
SEC Best Long-Shot Bet
Like Ohio State in the Big Ten, I think the SEC is Alabama’s to lose entering 2022. The Tide are returning Heisman winner Bryce Young under center and standout Will Anderson Jr. on defense. Alabama dropped just two games last year, one of them being to Texas A&M.
They say that lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice, but I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the Aggies can pull off another upset against Nick Saban and the Tide. Aside from Alabama, Jimbo Fisher’s team will have their work cut out for them as they take on the vaunted SEC West, featuring matchups against No. 19 Arkansas (at AT&T Stadium), No. 21 Ole Miss, Auburn and LSU. So, the +1800 that you get with TAMU is well-earned if they can make it through and punch their ticket to the SEC Championship.
I think they have the talent to make a splash this year. Whether it be Haynes King, LSU transfer Max Johnson or five-star freshman Conner Weigman to win the quarterback battle, they’ll have a talented offense around them. Devon Achane will look to build off of a season where he ran for 910 yards (7.0 ypc) and caught 24 passes for 261 yards (10.9 ypr). On the outside, the starting quarterback will have Ainias Smith and five-star freshman Evan Stewart to throw to. Smith hauled in 47 balls last year for 509 yards (10.8 ypr) and scored six touchdowns. It’ll have to be a flawless season for the Aggies, but I think +1800 is too nice of a payday to pass up, considering the hype around this team. Let’s ride with No. 6 Texas A&M to win the SEC in 2022.
Bet: Texas A&M (+1800 via FanDuel)
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