College Football Longshot Odds & Picks to Win the Heisman Trophy (2023)
The Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback returns to school for the second consecutive season, looking to join Ohio State’s Archie Griffin as the only two-time Heisman winner. USC’s Caleb Williams had +700 odds and was the third-biggest preseason favorite to take home the hardware last year, and Bryce Young had +800 preseason odds the year before that.
While the Heisman winners have had a chalky feel for the last two years, we are more interested in the “lottery ticket” type winners, like Devonta Smith in 2020, who did not even have odds posted until Week 7 of that year, and those were still massive +5000 odds. And going back two and three years before that, Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray were eventual Heisman Trophy winners overcoming preseason odds of +4000 and +3000, respectively.
Is there a player among this year’s crop of college football players vying for the Heisman that can return a big payday for bettors, like in 2016 when Lamar Jackson was +10000 in the preseason? And is it almost guaranteed to be a quarterback, the position that has won the award in six of the previous seven seasons?
Here are our best longshot bets to win the 2023 Heisman Trophy. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Best Longshot Bets to Win the Heisman Trophy (2023)
Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington) +1600
Caleb Williams’ +550 odds are enticing out of Lincoln Riley’s electric USC offense, as are Jayden Daniels’ +1100 odds out of LSU, as he became the fifth SEC quarterback in the last 20 years with 2,900+ passing yards and 800+ rushing yards in a season. However, Marcus Mariota in 2014 was the only player in the previous 12 years to win the Heisman as a preseason top-two favorite, so we have to look further down the odds board.
Penix Jr. is one of eight players with odds between +1400 and +1800, but he is the one we like the best, given his experience. Penix is coming off a season where he threw for 4,641 yards (a UW single-season record), 31 touchdowns, and led the nation in passing yards per game (357.0). In addition, his 81.1 QBR ranked 13th-best in FBS. It helps that Penix is protected by an offensive line that finished last year leading the country in tackles for loss allowed and second in sacks allowed.
While Williams found a path to individual success piggybacking off his team’s successful Pac-12 campaign, Penix similarly leads a preseason top-10 AP team with lofty ambitions. And considering each Heisman winner since 2010 played for a team that won 9+ games, Penix’s chances would be buoyed significantly if the Huskies can reach double-digit wins (their preseason O/U is 9.5) for the sixth time since 1992.
Tanner Mordecai (QB – Wisconsin) +10000
Penix Jr. ranks tied for sixth on the DraftKings Heisman odds board, so he may not be a “longshot” by the average bettors’ definition. Thus, we are throwing darts at two players with five-figure odds for a bigger payday, starting with Wisconsin quarterback Tanner Mordecai.
For decades, Wisconsin quarterbacks have been considered mere game managers and players that were asked to hand off to their stud running backs and get out of the way. But under new head coach Luke Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo, the Badgers have vowed to move to an “Air Raid” offense and ditch their more traditional ground-and-pound game.
Mordecai, the SMU transfer, threw for 3,524 yards and accounted for 35 total touchdowns, which is not far off from the 44-touchdown plateau that every quarterback Heisman winner has reached since 2010. Longo recently praised Mordecai for the improvements his quarterback made in the offseason.
The OC has a proven track record utilizing the Air Raid offense, starting with his 2014 Sam Houston State team that broke the single-season FCS passing touchdown record. Russell Wilson is the only Wisconsin quarterback to ever throw for 3,000 yards. However, if Mordecai sets all kinds of school records under Longo, whose UNC team ranked 28th nationally in plays per minute last season, he will generate Heisman buzz.
Jalon Daniels (QB – Kansas) +10000
Why can’t Jalon Daniels be this year’s version of 2016 Lamar Jackson? The Kansas Jayhawks return 85 percent of their total production, the second-most in FBS, behind Florida State’s 87 percent. And most of that returning production is on the offensive side of the football, as their 91 percent rate is the highest in FBS.
Daniels finished with an 87.9 Total QBR last season, ranked third in FBS. He also finished ahead of reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams in Expected Points Added (EPA), with a mark of 0.528 compared to Williams’ 0.512.
Daniels may perpetually be hurt by a lack of team success as long as he is wearing a Jayhawks uniform, but Kansas did finish with more wins (six) than in the previous three seasons combined (five). Kansas started on a five-game winning streak last season before losing seven of its final eight games. Thus, with more success in conference play and a stronger finish to the season, Daniels certainly figures to have the statistics to merit Heisman consideration.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.