Best NFL Futures to Bet Before Week 17 (2021)
All but eight NFL teams have clinched a playoff spot or are still alive. This leaves many slight edges available on the futures market as the playoff race winds down. I like these three futures bets involving AFC teams before Week 17.
Check out our consensus NFL futures odds for a range of bets >>
Los Angeles Chargers to make playoffs (+163)
The Chargers were in a great position to make the playoffs before their shocking loss to Davis Mills and the Texans last week. Brandon Staley’s defense continues to get gashed on the ground, and they now rank 31st in EPA/rush allowed.
My writeup on betting the Chargers to win the Super Bowl from two weeks ago has taken a big hit. However, the fundamental reasons why I like them as a longshot bet to make some noise in the playoffs, if they make it, are still there.
While his defense has fallen far short of expectations, Staley is a good coach with sound philosophy. A tough stretch of COVID and injury absences has knocked key players out of the lineup. With the NFL adopting new COVID rules, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and Corey Linsley are all eligible to return this week and boost a roster depleted of its star players.
Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, so the offense will put up points at full strength. Getting back star players will help the defense at least return to league-average. That makes the Chargers dangerous for their final two games, both of which they likely must win to make the playoffs. I give Los Angeles a 40% chance to do so against Denver and Las Vegas remaining. They’d then could battle Baltimore for the AFC’s final wild-card seed. Both teams are 8-6, and the Ravens have the tiebreaker, but Baltimore finishes the season against the Rams and Steelers. I give the Ravens just a 19% chance of winning both of those games, and that is assuming Lamar Jackson is back at full strength. If he misses another game or is still hampered by an ankle injury, the Chargers’ postseason chances increase further.
It’s tough to put your faith in a team that just lost to the Texans, but that upset should be a wake-up call for a good team with the potential to be great. I’m riding Herbert and the Bolts in the AFC playoff race.
Kansas City Chiefs under 12.5 wins (-105)
I project the 11-4 Chiefs to finish with exactly 12.5 wins, but I give them a 54.2% chance to lose at least one of their two remaining games. They travel to Cincinnati to face Joe Burrow and the red-hot Bengals this week before finishing the season in Denver. Although I don’t like betting against Kansas City, the under offers a slight edge.
Kansas City’s defense has been better recently, but it’ll be difficult stopping Burrow and all the weapons at his disposal. If Kansas City wins, a Titans loss to Miami will lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Andy Reid has rested his starters in the past, so this scenario would set up a Week 18 game of backups at Denver. There’s value on the under with their starters playing, so this bet is even more enticing with the chance of Kansas City resting Patrick Mahomes and other starters in Week 18.
Cleveland Browns to win AFC North (+550)
I wish I would’ve taken this bet last week at longer odds, as the Browns’ close loss to the Packers didn’t significantly change their playoff outlook.
A few things need to happen for Cleveland to win the AFC North. First, the Bengals must lose to the Chiefs. They are 5.5-point underdogs, and I give them a 67% chance of losing. Second, the Ravens need to lose one of their final two games. I project an 81% chance of them losing to either the Rams or Steelers. Finally, the Browns have to win out.
Cleveland plays Pittsburgh this week on Monday Night Football. The Browns are three-point favorites, and I give them a 62% chance of winning on primetime. They finish the season at home against Cincinnati in a possible AFC North championship game. I’d make the Browns just one-point underdogs in that matchup with a 49% win probability.
While all of these events hitting is certainly a longshot, that’s why the Browns are +550 to win the division. The implied odds of this bet are 15.4%, but I give the Browns a 17% chance to win the division. Betting on Baker Mayfield may feel dangerous following a four-interception outing, but we’ve seen him play at a high level. All he needs to do in most cases is not give the game away.
With a solid group of playmakers, an elite offensive line, a good defense, and sharp coaching, I like this longshot bet on the Browns to win their first division title since 1989.
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Jack O’Brien is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jack, check out his archive and follow him @JackOBrienNFL.