Best NFL Futures to Bet Before Week 18 (2022)
We have one week to go in the NFL regular season and most playoff spots have already been clinched. The futures markets have sorted out who will win most of the league’s awards and have whittled down the list of Super Bowl contenders. I found some value on three bets this week featuring three teams that have already locked up their spots in this year’s playoffs.
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Joe Burrow to win Comeback Player of the Year (+110)
I am disappointed that I didn’t jump on this bet sooner, as Burrow was hovering around +500 to win this award last week. This award is a two horse race between Burrow and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. When you take a closer look at these guys, Burrow should be the clear favorite. First off, Burrow has the statistical edge. He outpaces Dak in passing yards (457 yard lead), passing touchdowns (two TD lead), yards per attempt (8.9 to 7.3), and passer rating (111.1 to 100.9). The only stat that hurts Burrow’s case for CBPOY is the 14 interceptions he’s thrown in comparison to Dak’s 10, but that’s not a huge difference. Both quarterbacks are also on teams seeing similar success. The Bengals have 10 wins, clinched the division, and still have an outside chance at the AFC’s #1 seed. The Cowboys have one more win, and can get the NFC’s #2 seed at best. Dak will likely have an edge when it comes to team success, but it’s not by much. The narrative surrounding Burrow and the Bengals is also a huge point in his favor. They are the talk of the league right now after Burrow has put up back to back 400+ yard, 4 TD performances, beating the Chiefs in the process. It’s tough for me to find an angle as to why Burrow is not the current favorite for this award and while we are getting to this bet pretty late, I think it still has value. Joe Burrow has also proven time and time again, it’s never a bad idea to bet on him.
Arizona Cardinals to win NFC West (+340)
This line is a bit confusing to me. All Arizona needs to win the division is a win over Seattle, and a Rams loss to San Francisco. The market implied odds of those two things happening is currently about 27% and my numbers make it closer to 29%. If you shop around for these odds, you can find Arizona in the +300 to +340 range which gives us around a five percent edge on this bet. Confidence in the Cardinals was waning after three straight losses, but a huge win in Dallas last week set Arizona up for an opportunity to regain their division lead in Week 18. They handled the Seahawks pretty easily on the road in their first matchup and are nearly touchdown favorites against them this week. The key part of this bet is the 49ers managing to take down the Rams. San Francisco has dominated this matchup in recent history going 7-3 straight up and against the spread in their last ten games vs LA. Shanahan has had McVay’s number and with the 49ers’ Week 18 starter uncertain, the Rams will be forced to prepare for both Jimmy G and Trey Lance. I like either starter to get the job done as Garoppolo can manage the 49ers offense efficiently and Lance offers upside in Shanahan’s system that the Rams haven’t seen yet. It’s also do or die for San Francisco as a loss this week could cause them to fall out of a playoff spot. Arizona should be able to handle their business at home vs the Seahawks, and I like the 49ers to pull off the upset. Getting this bet at +340 gives us a nice edge that I’m pretty confident in.
Green Bay Packers to win the NFC (+175)
I’ve written up a few pro-Packers bets already in this futures series and I like them again this week. The path to postseason success continues to get brighter for Green Bay as they are only going to get healthier and the teams contending with them have lost key pieces. Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Randall Cobb, Zadarius Smith, and Josh Myers have all missed time due to either injury or COVID. They are expecting to get at least a few of those guys, if not all, back for the postseason. They’ve locked up the first round bye, so getting the next two weeks off will give those guys a chance to get back. Rodgers will also have a chance to recover from the toe injury that’s been ailing him down the stretch. While Green Bay is getting stonger, the NFC’s other contenders have grown weaker. Tampa Bay has lost Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Lavonte David. Dallas didn’t look great against Arizona this week and lost key receiver Michael Gallup. The Rams also barely escaped a Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore, and Matthew Stafford has tossed six interceptions in the last three games. All of these contenders will have to win their first-round matchup and then travel to the tundra at Lambeau Field to face a full strength Packers team that has looked like one of the league’s best all year. +175 is a high price to pay for this but I would make this line closer to +150 so I still like it. As a Vikings fan it pains me to say this, but the Packers are looking like they’re set for a Super Bowl run.
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Jack O’Brien is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jack, check out his archive and follow him @JackOBrienNFL.