Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Bears vs. Falcons (Week 6)
The Chicago Bears visit the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, October 18, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Looking for the best NFL player props for Bears vs. Falcons? Our BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet produced +25 units of profit and a 3.2% ROI across 803 picks through Weeks 1-5, led by passing yard props at +37.8 units and a 59.2% win rate. Explore our top Week 6 prop bets below, featuring player usage analysis, matchup breakdowns and projections.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Falcons
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Bears vs. Falcons. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 6.
Best Bets for Bears vs. Falcons
We have a 5-star bet courtesy of the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet: Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 31.5 pass attempts. These props are up +25.4 units this season (through Week 5).
The Falcons quarterback has exceeded this number only once in his last five games (32 attempts last week). Averaged just 22.5 pass attempts per game in his first two games. The Bears are facing the fewest pass attempts this season, at 26 per game. The only quarterback that the Bears have faced has surpassed 31 attempts this season (Bryce Young, Week 1).
Given the rib injury, I feel strongly that the Falcons won't overload their quarterback with pass attempts. They can run wild against this banged-up defense (Falcons rank 30th in pass rate over expected), so I don’t expect a ton of Penix dropbacks.
Caleb Williams will likely return to the Bears’ starting lineup in Week 6, and I think that’s a big boost for the Bears’ pass-catching corps. I’m keying in on Luther Burden III to score, given how heavily he’s been deployed in the red zone this season. Burden ranks fifth in red-zone targets this season (8) and is tied for third among receivers/tight ends in total red-zone opportunities per game (S/O to the BettingPros revamped anytime touchdown tool).
Atlanta is allowing nearly two passing touchdowns/game.
Erickson’s Picks
- Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts
- Luther Burden III Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175)
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Bears vs. Falcons
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Bears vs. Falcons. And you can view all of our Week 6 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Drake London 90+ Receiving Yards (-123)
- Leg 2: Luther Burden III 50+ Receiving Yards (-117)
- Leg 3: D'Andre Swift Under 66.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Chicago and Atlanta both have quarterback injury situations to monitor ahead of this matchup. Michael Penix Jr. has been cleared to play for the Falcons after suffering a rib injury last week. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is questionable for the Bears and appears likely to suit up.
With Penix under center, Drake London should be the immediate focus. The Falcons wideout now has 118, 96 and 194 receiving yards in Penix's three games this season. London is also averaging 117.7 yards per game in the last nine with Penix at quarterback, including last season. He's cleared 90+ yards in eight of those nine games as well.
On the other side, look for Luther Burden III to be productive for Chicago. The Falcons are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. A Williams return would certainly help Burden, but he can still get to 50+ yards in this matchup. He has 60+ yards in three out of five games, and his 35 targets lead the team so far.
D'Andre Swift, though, could be held in check this week. Atlanta boasts a strong run defense, allowing 3.8 yards per carry and just 80.2 rushing yards per game. The defense has also allowed fewer than 60 rushing yards to a lead back in four out of five games. As for Swift, he's been held to fewer than 60 yards in three games.
Parlay Odds: +455
Best NFL Player Props for Bears vs. Falcons
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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