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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 6 (2026)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Oct 17, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Oct 17, 2026
NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 6 (2026)

Welcome back to yet another edition of Andrew Erickson’s NFL Betting Primer powered by BettingPros.

My Week 5 betting card finished 7-4 (4-2 on sides/totals and 3-2 on player props), marking five straight weeks in the black. Over five weeks, the official plays went 7-4, 6-5, 6-4, 6-5 and 7-4.

We are 32-22 overall for a strong 59% hit rate. The best of the bunch was the Packers as home underdogs against the Bears. I called that one a lock, and Green Bay won outright, 31-7. Divisional home underdogs? Trust the process.

The Steelers laying a field goal and the Bills Moneyline in overtime against the Rams cashed, too. I was kicking myself for not making the Steelers a top pick on the Best Bets Show ahead of Week 5 - given that Indianapolis was coming off an international game and had no bye week.

The one that stung was the Eagles-Jaguars spread: Jacksonville won, but only by two points.

But I survived my back-to-back double-header wedding weekend (again, congrats to my sister, Rachael, and new big brother-in-law Matt, and my close friends, Mollie and Mike).

Let's get back to business with all remaining games for Week 16 featured below (including the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football matchups).

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    Two things stand out in the league-wide trends heading into Week 6. First, prime-time underdogs have covered nine straight games, and all nine won outright. Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Buffalo kept it going last week.

    Dallas-Green Bay on Sunday night and Washington-San Francisco on Monday night are the next tests.

    Second, the home-underdog edge cooled off slightly. After starting the season 14-8-1 ATS, home underdogs went just 1-4-1 in Week 5 and sit at 15-12-2 against the spread (ATS) for the season, a bit under 56% of decided bets. They still have won 12 out of 29 games outright (41%).

    Divisional home underdogs are still the sweet spot at 6-2 ATS (5-3 straight up).

    Based on the early lines, the Week 6 slate has home underdogs in the Buccaneers (vs. Steelers), Browns (vs. Ravens, in-division), Giants (vs. Saints), Falcons (vs. Bears) and Raiders (vs. Bills), and possibly the Packers if the Cowboys stay favored. The Browns-Ravens game is the only divisional game of the group.

    A reminder that Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are on bye, so we have 14 games this week, excluding Thursday’s Seahawks-Broncos matchup.

    We took the Seahawks laying less than a field goal. And it hit, despite Bo Nix’s horrific performance; Seattle fell short in overtime in Denver. After Week 6, prime-time underdogs have covered in 10 straight games, and all 10 won outright. Pretty crazy.

    League-Wide Trends

    Week 5 Recap

    • Favorites went 7-7-1 ATS; underdogs went 7-7-1 ATS (15 games).
    • Home teams went 4-9-1 ATS; road teams went 9-4-1 ATS (one neutral-site game excluded).
    • Home underdogs went 1-4-1 ATS (the Packers covered and won outright; the Dolphins pushed at -7).
    • Overall O/U: 8-7.

    Full Season 2026 (through Week 5)

    • Favorites went 34-40-5 ATS; underdogs went 40-34-5 ATS (79 games).
    • Home teams went 36-35-4 ATS; road teams went 35-36-4 ATS (4 neutral-site games excluded).
    • Overall O/U: 39-40.

    Home Underdogs (through Week 5)

    • Home underdogs are 15-12-2 ATS (29 games; neutral-site games excluded), which is 55.6% of decided bets.
    • Home underdogs have won 12 of those 29 games outright (41%), and the OVER went 14-15.
    • Divisional home underdogs are 6-2 ATS (5-3 straight up); all divisional underdogs are 14-4 ATS (18 games).

    Prime-Time Highlight (Wed Opener/TNF/SNF/MNF, through Week 5)

    • Favorites went 3-12-1 ATS; underdogs went 12-3-1 ATS (16 games).
    • Home teams went 8-6-1 ATS; road teams went 6-8-1 ATS (one neutral-site game excluded).
    • Overall O/U: 9-7.
    • Streaks: Prime-time underdogs have covered in nine straight games (and won all nine outright, dating back to Falcons-Packers in Week 3). Prime-time home teams have failed to cover in four straight. The OVER has hit in the last two prime-time games.

    For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 6 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube Channel.

     

    Week 6 NFL Betting Primer

    Official Plays

    Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Panthers -3.5

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (where the line opened), Carolina has not yet been in that role in 2026 (Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U. 1-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.
    • As a home favorite (where the line opened), Philadelphia is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. 0-1 ATS as a home underdog. Overall: across all home games, 0-2 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 0-3 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-4 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • Carolina streaks through Week 5: 2-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-2 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
    • Philadelphia streaks through Week 5: 2-3 straight up (three-game losing streak), 1-4 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
    • Carolina comes in off a bye week after a massive 32-26 home win over Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog, covering (Week 4; Week 5 bye). Philadelphia comes in off a 19-17 neutral-site loss to Jacksonville as a 7.5-point underdog, covering (Week 5).
    • Carolina’s last three road games have all stayed under the total: 2025 Week 18 at Tampa Bay (30 points vs. 43), 2026 Week 2 at Atlanta (37 vs. 44.5) and 2026 Week 3 at Cleveland (39 vs. 42.5). The streak actually extends to five straight unders for Panthers' road games.
    • Philadelphia is 6-11 ATS after a loss since 2023; the Week 5 cover in London (as a 7.5-point underdog) moved it from 5-11, which was the worst mark in the NFL entering Week 5.
    • Carolina is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Wild Card Round through 2026 Week 5).
    • So far in 2026, NFL teams returning from international play without a bye week (Rams, 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys, Commanders, Colts) are 4-1-1 SU and 3-3 ATS.
    • 0-2 ATS for the teams coming off no rest after playing in London this year.
    • Of the 27 NFL teams to have played the week after an international game: 16-10-1 SU, 12-15 ATS.
    • But since the start of last season: 5-4-1 SU, 3-7 ATS (updating number from Mo Egger).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    Fade the Eagles.

    The Eagles are 0-3 ATS as a favorite, on a three-game losing streak, and 1-5 ATS in their last six. They also average 18.4 points per game. Carolina is off its bye and 4-2 ATS in its last six.

    More often than not, betting against the “Go Birds” has been a recipe for betting success. Especially given this matchup, where they have to play immediately after a back-breaking loss in London, against a well-rested team coming off their bye week.

    • So far in 2026, NFL teams coming off international games without a bye week (Rams, 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys, Commanders, Colts) are 4-1-1 SU and 3-3 ATS.
    • 0-2 ATS for the teams coming off no rest after playing in London this year.
    • Of the 27 NFL teams to have played the week after an international game: 16-10-1 SU, 12-15 ATS.
    • But since the start of last season: 5-4-1 SU, 3-7 ATS (per Mo Egger).

    NFL teams coming off a bye week facing a team coming off an international game the prior week are 4-0 all time, according to NFL NFL Next Gen Stats.

    The consensus line moved 1.5 points away from Philadelphia, from Philadelphia -2 to Carolina -1.5. And then it moved again after the news broke regarding quarterback Jalen Hurts.

    We talked about liking the Panthers a ton on the early lookahead lines shown, with the expectation that the market would move quickly on the Cardiac Cats.

    Hopefully, you’ve got some strong closing line value (CLV) on the Panthers. But if not, I still like Carolina -3.5.

    With Jalen Coker returning (along with some offensive line pieces), I expect Carolina to cook versus an overrated Eagles defense.

    According to NFL NFL Next Gen Stats, the Eagles have used Cover 3 on 36.9% of opposing dropbacks this season, the 10th-highest rate in the league. They have allowed the fifth-highest success rate (51.4%) and second-highest yards per attempt (9.9) when using Cover 3 this season.

    Bryce Young’s 48.3% success rate against Cover 3 this season ranks 10th-highest among qualified passers, with 8.5 yards per attempt (8th-highest). With him and Coker on the field, their 9.0 yards per attempt would rank second in the NFL.

    Young has targeted receivers on in-breaking routes on 38.3% of his pass attempts this season, the fourth-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. On those throws, he has posted a 72.6% completion rate, tied for the fourth-highest, and thrown for 591 yards (4th-most), with a league-high 267 of them coming after the catch.

    The Eagles’ defense has allowed 635 yards to in-breaking routes this season, the second-most in the NFL. Much of that yardage has also come after the catch, as they have surrendered a league-high 302 such yards, 51 more than the next-closest team, the Bengals (251).

    The Eagles' defense has allowed 300+ passing yards in back-to-back games. They rank seventh in passing yards allowed per game. Coker has 55+ yards in his two healthy games to start the year. Philadelphia has allowed 108 yards per game to slot targets (3rd-worst) and has faced the second-most slot targets.

    Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith still seem like long shots to play, according to the "Are They Playing" Tool on FantasyPros. Barkley had logged back-to-back did-not-practice sessions (DNPs) to start the week, whereas Smith appears to be trending in a more positive direction. Either way, I still like Carolina.

    But if you are gun-shy about getting a “worse” line, I added another official play to the card above for the Jaguars-Texans international game.

    Props

    Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 42.5 Points

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Los Angeles is 0-1-1 ATS (0%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 0-1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 0-2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 O/U.
    • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), Kansas City is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • Los Angeles streaks through Week 5: 0-5 straight up (five-game losing streak), 0-4-1 against the spread (four-game non-cover streak), 1-4 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
    • Kansas City streaks through Week 5: 4-0 straight up (four-game win streak), 2-2 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
    • The Chargers come in off a 23-17 home loss to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 5). Kansas City comes in off a 30-27 road win at Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 4; Week 5 bye).
    • The Chargers have lost eight straight games (seven entering Week 5), dating to the 2025 season (0-8 ATS).
    • Each of the Chiefs’ previous six AFC West games had stayed Under the total before the Week 4 game at Las Vegas went Over (30-27, 57 points vs. a 47.5 total).
    • Each of the Chiefs’ last 10 home games versus AFC West teams has gone Under.
    • Los Angeles is 0-5-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2025 Wild Card Round through 2026 Week 5).
    • Andy Reid has an exceptional record of 22-4 after a regular-season bye week: 9-4 with the Chiefs, 6-2 with Patrick Mahomes, Close to 50% ATS.
    • The better bet is the Chiefs' Under after a bye week: Since their bye week in 2018, the Chiefs are just 3-10 to the Over.
    • Kansas City is tied with the Vikings and Bears for the highest under hit rate (66.7%, 7-14 O/U) among the Chiefs at home since 2024. Just 2-9 toward the Over at home since the start of last season.
    • Chargers on the road since 2024: 7-13-1 toward the Under (35% second-worst mark). Since 2025: 3-7-1 toward the Over.
    • Season-long trend: 14-7 Under for closing totals of 42 or lower (66%, 21 games) through Week 5 and Week 6 TNF.

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    One of the best bets last week was the first-half and full-game total under in the Chargers-Broncos game. Time to rinse and repeat. The trends I’ve listed above point so strongly toward this game finishing under 42.5 points.

    I don't need to sell anybody on the Chargers’ offense struggling. They have been a disaster this season under Mike McDaniel, and the team has been gutted by injuries.

    Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Los Angeles’ offense ranks in the bottom five in points per game (16.8), pressure rate (43.3%), sack rate (9.6%) and expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.23, lowest in the league). They have a league-high 13 giveaways, as Justin Herbert has thrown at least one interception in every game and has thrown no more than one touchdown in any game.

    And to further back the full-game total under, Kansas City will likely be without No. 1 WR Rashee Rice as he battles a hamstring injury.

    And the Bolts’ defense has played better the last few games. As I outlined last week:

    • In Week 4 against Seattle, they finished eighth in EPA/play allowed, 10th in yards/play and ranked third in quarterback pressure rate. Seattle went just 3-for-12 on third downs.
    • In Week 5 versus Denver, they ranked in the top six in total yards and yards per play allowed (currently rank 10th in pressure rate). Denver went 1-for-12 on third downs.

    The Chargers’ run defense has been solid. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they have allowed a rushing success rate of 35.4% this season (5th-lowest) despite recording a run-stuff rate of just 13.9% (8th-lowest). Los Angeles has allowed 1.3 yards before contact per carry this season (NFL Average: 1.3) but has allowed just 2.5 yards after contact per carry, which is the fifth-fewest in the league.

    Both defenses are top-10 in the red zone as well.

    In the last five times these teams have met, only once has the game exceeded 36 points (in an international game last season).

    Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Browns +3

    Trends

    • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), Baltimore is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 2-0 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-2-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2-1 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • As a home underdog, Cleveland is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • Baltimore streaks through Week 5: 4-1 straight up (three-game win streak), 2-2-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
    • Cleveland streaks through Week 5: 3-2 straight up (one-game losing streak), 3-2 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
    • Baltimore comes in off a 30-23 road win at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog, covering (Week 5). Cleveland comes in off a 17-12 road loss at the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 5).
    • Divisional underdogs are 14-4 ATS in 2026 through Week 5 (18 games), and divisional home underdogs are 6-2 ATS; Cleveland is a divisional home underdog here.
    • Cleveland was 6-1 ATS in its previous seven games as a home underdog entering Week 4 (13-8, 61.9%, since 2021), then covered that Week 4 home game against Pittsburgh (a 27-24 win as a 2.5-point underdog). Now 7-1 ATS since the start of last season as a home underdog.
    • Seven of the last eight games between AFC North teams have been won outright by underdogs
    • The Browns are 6-0 ATS at home against the AFC North.
    • Last 5 games between Baltimore and Cleveland have gone Over.
    • Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); Cleveland is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    The consensus line moved 2.5 points away from Cleveland, from Cleveland +2.5 to Cleveland +5, crossing the key number of 3. This spread has moved all over the place given the ambiguity surrounding Lamar Jackson.

    Jackson was a DNP on Wednesday/Thursday with an ankle injury. Trending toward him not playing - hence the line moving closer to the Browns. It was later confirmed on Friday that Jackson would not play in Week 6. Tyler Huntley will start.

    Gave out Browns +5.5 on the Best Bets Show for Week 6.

    But regardless of the quarterback, I want to back the home divisional underdogs.

    Divisional underdogs are 14-4 ATS in 2026 through Week 5 (18 games), and divisional home underdogs are 6-2 ATS; Cleveland is the lone divisional home underdog in Week 6.

    But nobody covers better than the Brownies at the #DawgPound:

    • Cleveland is 2-0 ATS and 2-0 straight up as a home underdog this year.
    • The Browns are 6-0 ATS at home against the AFC North.
    • Seven of the last eight games between AFC North teams have been won outright by underdogs
    • Now 7-1 ATS since the start of last season as a home underdog.

    Trust the process.

    Todd Monken knows the Ravens’ personnel very well, given he spent several years there as the team’s offensive coordinator.  Baltimore constantly plays down its competition.

    New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Over 44.5 Points

    Trends

    • Overall: across all road games, New Orleans is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 0-2 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • As a home underdog, New York is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 3-0 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
    • Since the start of 2025, the Giants are 7-4 toward the over at home (2-1 this season).
    • In Jameis Winston's last 11 full starts: 8-3 toward the over (4-1 toward the over since the start of last season).
    • New Orleans streaks through Week 5: 1-4 straight up (three-game losing streak), 2-3 against the spread (three-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
    • New York streaks through Week 5: 3-1-1 straight up (last game was a tie; no active win/loss streak), 4-1 against the spread (three-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (two-game Over streak).
    • New Orleans comes in off a 23-13 home loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 5). The Giants come in off a 27-27 tie at Washington as a 3.5-point underdog, covering (Week 5).
    • New Orleans covered eight straight games before the Week 3 loss to Las Vegas and has not covered in three straight games; the Saints are 6-3 ATS over their last nine games.
    • Saints quarterback Tyler Shough was 9-4 ATS to start his career entering Week 5 (7-1 as an underdog, 2-3 as a favorite).
    • The Saints have covered in seven straight road games.
    • New Orleans is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); New York is 5-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5).
    • Per BetMGM, in 29 games as a market favorite, Jameis owns a 9-20-1 ATS record. Much better ATS bet as an underdog.

    Injuries

     

    Betting Preview

    New Orleans' games are averaging 53.8 combined points against an average closing total of 45.9, and the Saints allow 30.2 per game. The Giants have gone Over in their last two games (60 and 54 points).

    I think there’s some value on the total after the Saints’ offense got erased by the Vikings’ defense in Week 5. I know they are dealing with offensive line injuries, but the fact that they are so pass-heavy keeps the total going over well within striking distance.

    There will be some bad plays for Tyler Shough for sure, given he will see a lot of blitzes.

    Per NFL Next Gen Stats: Shough has been blitzed on 32.4% of dropbacks this season (league average: 32.2%) and has averaged 5.4 yards per attempt (6th-lowest) and a 6.8% explosive pass rate (2nd-lowest). When facing four or fewer pass-rushers, Shough has averaged the ninth-lowest yards per attempt (6.8) but the sixth-highest explosive pass rate (17.1%).

    Shough has also recorded a 49.2% passing success rate against man coverage this season, the eighth-highest in the NFL. The Giants’ defense has played man coverage on 35.9% of dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

    Following Brian Burns’ season-ending knee injury in Week 3, the Giants’ defense has blitzed on 57.9% of dropbacks since Week 4, trailing only the Vikings (63.8%).

    This feels like a very boom-or-bust type of game for the Saints’ second-year signal-caller. But if the blitz doesn’t come home, New York can get burned on the back end for chunk plays.

    Neither defense is good:

    • The Saints have the second-worst defense in points per game allowed this season (30.2) and a bottom-10 pressure rate
    • Both defenses are bottom-10 in yards per play allowed (Saints 7th-worst in EPA/pass attempt faced)
    • Both are bottom-12 in EPA/play allowed.
    • Both are bottom-six run defenses.
    • Both are below-average red-zone defenses.

    The Giants have played in the rain for three straight weeks, but the forecast looks decent for this matchup here.

    This should be a fun matchup with Jameis Winston in a revenge game versus New Orleans. In Winston's last 11 full starts: 8-3 toward the over (4-1 toward the over since the start of last season). New Orleans’ defense is allowing the second-highest separation to opposing wide receivers (tied with Dallas).

    Winston should be extremely efficient (or as efficient as a Winston-led pass attack can be). But the Giants’ rushing attack should also produce.

    The Saints’ defense has allowed a league-high 133.4 rushing yards per game to running backs; no defense has allowed more yards per carry before (1.3) and after (3.8) contact this season (6th-highest run rate faced). Seven running backs have hit at least 54 yards in five games versus the Saints. Cam Skattebo has 56.5 rushing yards in four out of five games this season and in every healthy game since Week 3 of last season.

    Seth mentioned Najee Harris to score as a strong long-shot touchdown bet on the Best Bets Show for Week 6, and I like it as well. Harris has seven red-zone carries this season without a touchdown (including a goal-line rush last week). The Saints are last in rushing touchdowns allowed this season. No player has longer touchdown odds with as many red-zone carries as Harris does this season.

    Props

    Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: See Props Below

    Trends

    • As a road favorite, Chicago is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 1-4 O/U.
    • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), ATL is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • Chicago streaks through Week 5: 3-2 straight up (one-game losing streak), 3-2 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 1-4 toward the total (four-game Under streak).
    • ATL streaks through Week 5: 2-3 straight up (one-game losing streak), 2-3 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (three-game Over streak).
    • Chicago comes in off a 31-7 road loss at Green Bay as a 1.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 5). Atlanta comes in off a 30-23 home loss to Baltimore as a 3.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 5).
    • Under head coach Ben Johnson, Chicago is 6-5 ATS on the road (2-1 as a road favorite) after the Week 5 loss at Green Bay, where it was a 1.5-point favorite; it was 6-4 and 2-0 entering the week.
    • Chicago is 14-8-1 ATS since 2024 (9-3-1 at home) after the Week 5 non-cover.
    • Chicago is 4-2 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2025 Divisional Round through 2026 Week 5); ATL is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5).

    Injuries

     

    Betting Preview

    We have a 5-star bet courtesy of the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet: Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 31.5 pass attempts. These props are up +25.4 units this season (through Week 5).

    The Falcons quarterback has exceeded this number only once in his last five games (32 attempts last week). Averaged just 22.5 pass attempts per game in his first two games. The Bears are facing the fewest pass attempts this season, at 26 per game. The only quarterback that the Bears have faced has surpassed 31 attempts this season (Bryce Young, Week 1).

    Given the rib injury, I feel strongly that the Falcons won't overload their quarterback with pass attempts. They can run wild against this banged-up defense (Falcons rank 30th in pass rate over expected), so I don’t expect a ton of Penix dropbacks.

    Caleb Williams will likely return to the Bears’ starting lineup in Week 6, and I think that’s a big boost for the Bears’ pass-catching corps. I’m keying in on Luther Burden III to score, given how heavily he’s been deployed in the red zone this season. Burden ranks fifth in red-zone targets this season (8) and is tied for third among receivers/tight ends in total red-zone opportunities per game (S/O to the BettingPros revamped anytime touchdown tool).

    Atlanta is allowing nearly two passing touchdowns/game.

    Props

    Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Over 44.5 Points

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Tennessee is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 0-2 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 0-3 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3 ATS and 1-4 O/U.
    • As a home favorite, Indianapolis has not yet been in that role in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • Tennessee streaks through Week 5: 0-5 straight up (five-game losing streak), 2-3 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 1-4 toward the total (three-game Under streak).
    • Indianapolis streaks through Week 5: 2-3 straight up (one-game losing streak), 3-2 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
    • Tennessee comes in off a 26-3 home loss to Houston as a 7.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 5). Indianapolis comes in off a 34-22 road loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 5).
    • Tennessee has failed to cover in three of its last four road games (2025 Week 18 at Jacksonville, and 2026 Weeks 1 and 3); it covered at Baltimore in Week 4 as an 11.5-point underdog.
    • Tennessee is 2-4 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5).
    • The Colts are 6-0 ATS versus the Titans in their last six matchups.
    • Eight of the Colts’ last nine games as favorites versus Tennessee have gone Over the total.
    • Tennessee is 12-7 toward the Over (66.7%) in the last 19 games since Cam Ward became the starting quarterback.

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    I like the over. Indianapolis is back in the dome after a road trip to Pittsburgh last week, where the offense looked lackluster, and the Steelers kept Jonathan Taylor in check. I’m not sure Tennessee can do the same, and Taylor averages well over 100 rushing yards per game at home. If the Titans can’t stop him, this becomes a better game for points even if the Colts score most of them.

    The Colts’ defense is in bad shape, so I think Tennessee can do enough to push this past the total. Both games last season between these two teams went over 50 points easily. This matchup features two defenses with an EPA/play inside the bottom eight.

    The Colts are another slot-funnel defense, ranking second in yards allowed to slot targets this season. The top five most comparable players to Wan’Dale Robinson versus the Colts have seen the over hit in all five games this season. Robinson has gone over in three out of five games this season. They also rank fifth in slot targets this season.

    And to really make a correlated bet, pair it with the under on Carnell Tate’s 4.5 receptions.

    Welsh gave this out on our Props Show for Week 6, and I might have added it myself had he not beaten me to the show sheet.

    Props

    Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 42.5 Points

    Trends

    • As an underdog (the role it plays here), Houston is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all games as an underdog, 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-4 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
    • As a favorite (the role it plays here), Jacksonville is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all games as a favorite, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 1-4 O/U.
    • Houston streaks through Week 5: 1-4 straight up (one-game win streak), 1-4 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
    • Jacksonville streaks through Week 5: 4-1 straight up (three-game win streak), 3-2 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 1-4 toward the total (four-game Under streak).
    • Houston comes in off a 26-3 road win at Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite, covering (Week 5). Jacksonville comes in off a 19-17 neutral-site win over Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 5).
    • Jacksonville is 12-2 in its last 14 games, dating to the 2025 season: it was 11-2 over the 13-game stretch entering Week 5, then beat Philadelphia 19-17 in London.
    • Under head coach Liam Coen, Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite and was 9-2 ATS as a favorite overall entering Week 5; the Week 5 win over Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite did not cover, so the overall mark as a favorite is 9-3 (the neutral-site game is excluded from the home-favorite split).
    • Jacksonville was 3-2 straight up and against the spread in London over the last three seasons entering Week 5; the 19-17 win over Philadelphia (no cover as a 7.5-point favorite) makes it 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS.
    • Five of the Texans’ last six road games have gone Under, including the 29-point total in their 26-3 Week 5 win at Tennessee.
    • Five of the last Jaguars’ six games at Wembley have gone Under the total.
    • So far in 2026, the international games are 1-3 toward the O/U.
    • Seven of the last 14 international games have gone Over the total.
    • 12 of the last 19 international games have gone Under the total.
    • Per Covers.com, favorites are 50-17 straight up and 41-25-1 against the spread for a 62% hit rate. The O/U is 30-37 (44%).
    • Houston's last five road division games have all gone under.
    • Houston is 1-5 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Divisional Round through 2026 Week 5); Jacksonville is 3-3 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2025 Wild Card Round through 2026 Week 5).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    My opening stance was on the Jacksonville side. The Jaguars were one of my best bets last week. It did not pan out; they won in London but did not cover, but I still like them. Back-to-back games in London are part of it, and Houston still has not beaten a legitimate team; its win came against Tennessee. I wish this game were in Duval County because that is where Jacksonville plays super ATS.

    But to be honest, this is not a confident bet (hence its absence in the official plays). Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Trevor Lawrence is 3-7 in his 10 career starts against the Texans, with eight touchdown passes and 11 interceptions - his most losses and most interceptions against any team. Last year alone, the series was split: Jaguars beat the Texans at home 17-10, but lost on the road 36-29 (after a 26-point fourth-quarter comeback by Houston).

    These close spread division games always seem like they could go either way, so playing the total seems like a better approach. International games lean under, and that has been the trend with the Jaguars in London. The Jaguars are down another starting offensive lineman, left tackle Anton Harrison. Not the person you want to lose before you face Will Anderson Jr.

    Both defenses are good, if not great, units.

    Jaguars:

    • 6th best versus the pass (EPA/attempt faced)
    • 9th in pressure rate
    • Fewest rushing yards allowed per game
    • The defense has also dominated in the red zone, trailing only the Vikings in red-zone conversion rate (33%)
    • Just 14 PPG allowed

    Texans:

    • Allowed a 39.0% success rate on opponent dropbacks this season, the second-lowest in the NFL
    • The Texans have allowed 3.3 yards per designed run this season, the second-fewest in the NFL
    • 22.4 PPG allowed
    • 12th in pressure rate

    The “worst” unit on either defensive side is the Texans’ secondary, which has allowed the fourth-highest rate of explosive plays per dropback (18.5%), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

    Take the under.

    Jacksonville has gone under four straight, averaging 37.2 combined points during that specific stretch.

    But still try to have fun and get in on some first touchdown prop action (you’re waking up early anyway). My pick is Marvin Harrison Jr. to score first. Both run defenses are beyond elite, so I think a receiver will strike first. Harrison is going to make his Texans debut in London, while playing in specific packages. Translation? He will be a red-zone target.

    The last time C.J. Stroud played with Harrison in college, he caught 14 touchdowns in 2022. Including two versus Georgia in the last game they played together. I can’t guarantee Harrison will catch an end-zone target thrown his way… But I think the opportunity will be there for him in Week 6. At 22-1 odds, take it.

    The highest-rated first touchdown scorer prop, according to the BettingPros First Touchdown Tool is Harrison.

    Props

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Steelers -2.5

    Trends

    • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), Pittsburgh is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), Tampa Bay is 0-1-1 ATS (0%) and 0-2 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-2-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-3-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
    • Pittsburgh streaks through Week 5: 3-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 3-2 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (three-game Over streak).
    • Tampa Bay streaks through Week 5: 1-4 straight up (one-game win streak), 1-3-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (three-game Under streak).
    • Pittsburgh comes in off a 34-22 home win over Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite, covering (Week 5). Tampa Bay comes in off a 24-16 road win at Dallas as an 8.5-point underdog, covering (Week 5).
    • Tampa Bay’s ATS drought ended in Week 5: the Buccaneers won 24-16 at Dallas as 8.5-point underdogs, snapping a 0-12-1 ATS skid (13 straight games without a cover, including the push against Green Bay in Week 4). 0-8 ATS at home in last 8 home games.
    • Tampa Bay was 61% ATS as an underdog since 2023 entering Week 5 (the Week 5 outright win and cover at Dallas as a road underdog is not included in that figure).
    • Pittsburgh is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Wild Card Round through 2026 Week 5); Tampa Bay is 1-4-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5).

    Injuries

     

    Betting Preview

    I like the Steelers laying the points, even on the road. I think the Buccaneers are getting a little overinflated after the big Thursday night win over Dallas, whose defense is atrocious, and teams often get overvalued after a prime-time island-game performance. That game just says more about Dallas than Tampa Bay.

    Tampa Bay does come in with extra rest, but Pittsburgh is doing things right offensively, starting with feeding Jaylen Warren as the workhorse back. He is balling out. Aaron Rodgers is taking more hits, but he gets the ball out quickly, which helps mitigate the effects of a Todd Bowles blitz.

    In the early look, I would have been happy to take Pittsburgh with more than a field goal, so I saw some value. With the lines unchanged (ie, no Baker Mayfield), I’ll take the road favorites in Jalon Daniels’ third career start. Tampa won last week because they could run the ball on Dallas. The Steelers held Jonathan Taylor in check last week.

    The Bucs have played opponents close this season (1-4 in one-score games), but you only need the Steelers to win by a field goal to cash this bet.

    Week 6 Remaining Matchups

    New York Jets at New England Patriots

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Pass

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), New York is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 1-4 O/U.
    • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), New England is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-1-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
    • New York streaks through Week 5: 2-3 straight up (one-game win streak), 3-2 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 1-4 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
    • New England streaks through Week 5: 3-2 straight up (two-game win streak), 3-1-1 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (two-game Over streak).
    • The Jets come in off a 17-12 home win over Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite, covering (Week 5). New England comes in off a 45-17 home win over Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 5).
    • New England is 8-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2025 (7-2-1 entering Week 5, then the cover against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite). 8-5 toward the over (7-4 toward the over as a home favorite).
    • The Patriots have won 15 straight games as a favorite (14-0 entering Week 5), and favorites have now covered in eight straight games at Gillette Stadium (seven entering Week 5).
    • New York is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); New England is 3-2-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (Super Bowl LX through 2026 Week 5).
    • Each of Pats’ last 4 AFC East games has gone Over.

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    The Over is the play for me here. I think we’ve seen the Patriots’ offense turn back into a wagon, with 29 points against Buffalo and 45 against Las Vegas the last two weeks, and Drake Maye is playing confidently again. New England is going to score on the Jets, but I also think New York might score on the Patriots.

    The Jets have faced tougher matchups against the Browns (in terrible weather) and, the week before that, a Bears team that played bully ball the entire game (New York barely possessed the ball).

    I do have some concerns about the Will Campbell injury, and rookie pass-rusher David Bailey is coming off a monster game and could wreak some havoc against a compromised Patriots offensive line. But Maye is playing so well right now that I like the game total Over (while avoiding laying more than a touchdown in a divisional game).

    That’s the only reason I don’t love the spread: The number. A full touchdown in a divisional game is a lot; these teams know each other, and Aaron Glenn has now faced Mike Vrabel and Maye twice. The Patriots laid a 42-burger on the Jets back in Week 17 in the 2025 season (in New York). Last year at Gillette Stadium, the Pats won 27-14 (total close at 43 points). Geno Smith also lit up the Patriots’ defense in Week 1 of last season (362 passing yards).

    Still, to be clear… this is more of a lean and a game I’ll likely stay away from.

    Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Cardinals +12.5

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Arizona is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), Los Angeles is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • Arizona streaks through Week 5: 1-4 straight up (four-game losing streak), 2-3 against the spread (two-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (three-game Over streak).
    • Los Angeles streaks through Week 5: 2-3 straight up (one-game losing streak), 2-3 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (three-game Over streak).
    • Arizona comes in off a 45-21 home loss to Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 5). The Rams come in off a 37-34 home loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 5).
    • Los Angeles is 12-7-1 ATS after a loss since 2023, fifth-best in the NFL.
    • The Rams’ six-game home winning streak ended in Week 5 with a 37-34 overtime loss to Buffalo, despite being a 3.5-point home favorite.
    • Arizona has covered in seven of its last 11 games as a road underdog.
    • Arizona is 2-0 ATS in 2026 when catching eight or more points: +9.5 at the Chargers in Week 1 (a 26-14 outright win) and +8.5 at San Francisco in Week 3 (a 36-30 loss).
    • Arizona is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2025 NFC Championship through 2026 Week 5).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    I think 12.5 is too big a number. That is the biggest number the Rams have laid this year (with no home-field advantage to factor in).

    Short week after an overtime loss against a head coach, Mike LaFleur, who spent three years with the Rams as their offensive coordinator. The Rams will also be without starting left tackle Alaric Jackson because of a one-game suspension.

    The Rams have failed to cover the spread with a rest disadvantage in the last four instances.

    Against that line, the Rams would have covered one of five games this season, the +22 over the Giants, while Arizona would have covered three times. Arizona is 2-0 ATS in 2026 when getting eight or more points. The risk is that Arizona has lost by 24 twice (Weeks 2 and 5) and allows 32.4 points per game. Woof.

    It’s scary because the Cardinals are willing to drop back and throw 40 to 45 times per game with a combination of Jacoby Brissett/Michael Wilson/Trey McBride, and that creates garbage-time opportunities.

    I like the value with Arizona at this number. Arizona’s biggest cover this season came in Week 1 at the Chargers in Los Angeles, where the Cardinals were 9.5-point underdogs and won outright, and I’ll take them playing in Los Angeles again.

    This is also one of those classic “close your eyes” specials: Team gets blown out by 21+ points one week, then catches double-digit points the following week, etc. This matchup doesn’t align with the official “close your eyes” special (21 points versus the spread, so technically the Raiders qualify this week after getting blown out by New England), but you catch my drift.

    Even so…

    The Cardinals got blown out twice last year by the Rams, 37-20 and 45-17, but I think we can all agree that last year’s Rams team might be better than the 2026 version. L.A. covered the double-digit spread in both games, although Arizona was winning late into the third quarter in the second matchup.

    If you can’t stomach the Cardinals, the over is another option. Four of the last five games between these two teams have gone over the closing line total.

    Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Over 53.5Points

    Trends

    • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), Buffalo is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 2-0 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-1 ATS and 4-1 O/U.
    • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), Las Vegas is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-1 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • Buffalo streaks through Week 5: 4-1 straight up (one-game win streak), 4-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 4-1 toward the total (two-game Over streak).
    • Las Vegas streaks through Week 5: 3-2 straight up (two-game losing streak), 4-1 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (three-game Over streak).
    • Buffalo comes in off a 37-34 road win at the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog, covering (Week 5). Las Vegas comes in off a 45-17 road loss at New England as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 5).
    • Josh Allen is 24-16-2 ATS in his career (60%) after the Week 5 cover at the Rams (23-16-2 entering the week), and has an 8-1 career record in domes.
    • Buffalo is averaging 32.8 points per game in 2026 (164 points in five games).
    • Buffalo is 4-2 ATS and 5-1 O/U over its last six games (2025 Divisional Round through 2026 Week 5); Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5).

    Injuries

     

    Betting Preview

    I like the Over. The Raiders’ loss to the Patriots said more about the Patriots than the Raiders. Las Vegas is very boom-or-bust on defense, and when its pressure doesn’t get home, it gives up explosive downfield plays. Drake Maye had plenty of time to throw, even after Will Campbell got hurt.

    When you play the Buffalo Bills, saddle up, as there are going to be a lot of explosive plays. Josh Allen indoors is a rare occurrence, and I expect it to remind us how much fun he is on fast turf with all of these playmakers.

    Buffalo games average 61.0 combined points and are 4-1 to the Over. Las Vegas games average 52.2, and the Raiders are on a three-game Over streak.

    Seth Woolcock dropped this as one of his best bets for Week 6, riding the over in Sin City.

    I tend to agree, given that these high-total games have not closed high enough so far this season.

    Through Week 5, games with a closing total of 50+ points are 7-2 to the Over (78%). Dropping the cutoff to 49.5 makes it 9-2 across 11 games.

    NFL Sunday Night Football

    Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Cowboys Moneyline

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Dallas is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-0-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2-1 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
    • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), Green Bay is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 0-2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-3-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
    • Dallas streaks through Week 5: 2-3 straight up (one-game losing streak), 2-2-1 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
    • Green Bay streaks through Week 5: 3-2 straight up (two-game win streak), 1-3-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
    • Dallas comes in off a 24-16 home loss to Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 5). Green Bay comes in off a 31-7 home win over Chicago as a 1.5-point underdog, covering (Week 5).
    • Green Bay ended a 0-9-1 ATS skid (10 straight games without a cover) in Week 5, a 31-7 win over Chicago as a 1.5-point home underdog.
    • Green Bay is 5-11 ATS as a favorite since 2025 (the Week 4 game at Tampa Bay, a push at -3, is not counted).
    • Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); Green Bay is 1-4-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Wild Card Round through 2026 Week 5).
    • Prime-time record in 2026 (through Week 5): Dallas is 0-2 ATS and 0-2 O/U in 2 prime-time games; Green Bay is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U in 1 prime-time game.

    Injuries

      Betting Preview

      This has to be a shootout, right? The last time these teams met was a 40-40 tie on Sunday Night Football last year. In the last six games these teams have played, the total has gone Over.

      As for sides… I’ll take the team with the points, the Cowboys, as painful as that sounds after taking them to cover and win outright last week against the Buccaneers, and then watching them lose outright.

      In retrospect, why would I think they could cover that line? Anytime they are heavy favorites, you fade them to oblivion, and anytime they get written off as underdogs, that is when you want to be on their side.

      I also don’t think Green Bay has totally erased its issues. The offensive line is still really bad, and you saw the cracks up front at times against Jordan Love when the Bears’ pressure got home. When it didn’t, he was able to rip off explosive plays, which he will be able to do against Dallas too.

      It will be back-and-forth and come down to the last possession, so I’ll take the team catching the points with Dak Prescott as a slight underdog (7-2 ATS as an underdog since 2025, second-best mark in the NFL).

      Conversely, you never want to bet on the Packers as favorites in any capacity… they are 6-11 ATS as a favorite since last season (0-2-1 this season), fresh off their first cover in their last 10 games. Don’t let Week 5 change your entire outlook on both of these teams.

      Not to mention… the prime-time underdogs this season have covered 10 straight games, and won all of them outright.

      Back to the total briefly, because there’s a chance of some wind in the forecast that bettors should be wary of. Gusts up to 27 miles per hour (MPH) could be problematic, so be sure to do your due diligence before firing on the game total.

      And the full integration of Joey Porter Jr. could eventually turn the tide of the Dallas defense starting in Week 6. Meanwhile, Green Bay could be down another cornerback in Brandon Cisse.

      Christian Watson has scored the first touchdown in his last three home games with Jordan Love as his quarterback (Green Bay has scored the first touchdown in six straight games). That was Welsh’s favorite first touchdown call on our Week 6 Props Show. I already mentioned my first touchdown call, but I’m still interested in touchdown props for this game.

      Let me introduce Packers wide receiver J. Michael Sturdivant. He caught a 43-yard touchdown last week that was overturned on an offensive pass interference call. But the coaches acknowledged this week that it would have been awesome to get him his first touchdown, but that it will be coming pretty soon (S/O The Coachspeak Index).

      Props

      NFL Monday Night Football

      Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

      Betting Lines & Odds

      Erickson’s Pick: 49ers -7.5

      Trends

      • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Washington is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-2 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3 ATS and 4-1 O/U.
      • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), San Francisco is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-1 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
      • Washington streaks through Week 5: 1-3-1 straight up (last game was a tie; no active win/loss streak), 2-3 against the spread (two-game non-cover streak), 4-1 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
      • San Francisco streaks through Week 5: 5-0 straight up (five-game win streak), 4-1 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
      • Washington comes in off a 27-27 tie with the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 5). San Francisco comes in off a 32-29 road win at Seattle as a 3-point underdog, covering (Week 5).
      • San Francisco had gone Over the total in each of its previous five games as a favorite before the Week 4 game against Denver went Under (24-14, 38 points vs. 48.5).
      • Washington is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 5); San Francisco is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2025 Divisional Round through 2026 Week 5).
      • Washington games are averaging 52.8 combined points in 2026 (264 in five games), and San Francisco games are averaging 49.4 (247 in five games).
      • Prime-time record in 2026 (through Week 5): Washington has not played a prime-time game in 2026; San Francisco is 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U in 1 prime-time game.

      Injuries

        Betting Preview

        Originally, I wanted to back the Commanders. Getting more than a touchdown with Jayden Daniels, a quarterback who performs well when his team is the underdog, is appealing, and he looked fantastic running the ball in his return last week versus the New York Giants (despite also taking five sacks).

        But this Washington defense is so bad that Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans and whoever else is healthy are going to have a field day against it. The biggest difference in the 49ers’ defense is linebacker Fred Warner.

        Warner is the tide that lifts all boats, and he can spy Daniels as a runner, which is what concerns me about backing Washington. If he slows Daniels down on the ground, you are left needing Washington’s offense to pass its way back, and the Commanders can’t consistently run the ball behind a shaky offensive line that traveled cross-country after an overtime tie.

        I usually don’t like laying this many points with the 49ers, so in the early look this was a shy-away spot for me. But upon further research, the 49ers’ 10-3-1 mark ATS as a favorite ranks No. 1 in the NFL since 2025. It’s not as great at home (4-3-1), but positive nonetheless.

        San Francisco as a favorite is still a lean I like, and I’d rather be with the 49ers than the Commanders. It’s rare to see an injury report for a 49ers game when they look like the healthiest team.

        I’m treating it as a lean rather than a play at this number. My favorite play in this game is betting against the Commanders quarterback and his legs.

        The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, including mobile quarterbacks like Malik Willis and Bo Nix. They combined for 16 yards. No quarterback has rushed for more than 10 yards against the 49ers this season, with four out of five going Under their rushing projection. Willis had six rushing yards on a 37.5-yard rushing prop.

        Daniels has recorded 201 yards on scrambles this season, second-most in the NFL, and has averaged a league-leading 12.6 yards per carry on those runs (minimum five carries). The 49ers’ defense has faced five scrambles, tied for the fewest in the NFL, and has allowed 5.6 yards per carry on those runs (6th-fewest) according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

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