Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Dolphins vs. Vikings (Week 4)
The Miami Dolphins head to Minnesota to face the Vikings in Week 4, with offensive volume and efficiency central to evaluating the player prop markets. Our best Dolphins vs. Vikings player props and picks look at how rushing attempts, pass attempts and targets could develop as the game unfolds.
Through the first three weeks, the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has produced profitable results in both reception and passing-yard markets. Reception picks have returned 18.6 units of profit with an 8.2% ROI, while passing-yard selections have added 7.4 units. Below, we examine the tool's ratings alongside expected workloads and matchup considerations to identify NFL player props worth a closer look, including yardage totals, receptions and touchdown bets.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Vikings
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Dolphins vs. Vikings. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 4.
Best Bets for Dolphins vs. Vikings
Seth Woolcock and I are squad riding this as one of our “stone-cold” locks for the Week 4 slate. Brian Flores’ “revenge game” at home against Malik Willis.
I don’t need to sell anybody on how/why the Dolphins offense will struggle in this game. But how good is the Vikings offense (especially with a banged-up Justin Jefferson).
Per Next Gen Stats, the Vikings have the second-fewest total yards (715) of any team to start 3-0 since 1970, trailing only the 2004 Jaguars (654). Minnesota’s -244 total yards margin is also the second-worst among all 3-0 teams in that span, behind only the 2020 Seahawks (-268).
The offense with Kyler Murray under center last week ranked 31st in EPA/play. On the year…Minnesota ranks 5th-worst in EPA/play and DEAD LAST in yards per play.
The Vikings are 3-0 because of their elite defense, and I expect that script to continue in Week 4. Minnesota home games (and in general) trend UNDER, so avoid the sides and slam the total.
Miami will be without its best offensive player, RB De’Von Achane, for the remainder of the season. In his absence, the Dolphins will call upon Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright to fill the void.
Still, context matters here. Wright was inactive last, even though he was previously Achane's backup. Hence, Gordon drew the majority of the work in Week 3.
I handle the handcuff index on FantasyPros, so I've been watching every backfield closely.
Wright was currently day-to-day(foot/stinger) but was upgraded to a full participant in practice on Thursday. Even so, Dolphins HC Jeff Hafley was adamant that he would use all of his guys to fill the void left by his star RB. The books are suggesting, based on their lines, that Wright (as the previous/confirmed backup on the depth chart) is the favorite to lead the backfield (at least when the lines opened).
His rushing yards and attempts are slightly higher than Gordon’s. Anybody’s guess on who actually is the lead back…and the most likely outcome is a RRBC committee approach. Given Wright’s number is highest and he is coming off the injury…he’s the under I want to bet against.
Not to mention this matchup is BRUTAL. Vikings allow the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game. Lowest EPA/rush allowed (-0.29). And Dolphins’ All-Pro center Aaron Brewer also popped up on the injury report with a hand injury this week (although expected to play).
Erickson’s Picks
- Under 39.5
- Jaylen Wright UNDER 29.5 rushing yards
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Dolphins vs. Vikings
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Dolphins vs. Vikings. And you can view all of our Week 4 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown (-155)
- Leg 2: Jordan Addison 60+ Receiving Yards (-129)
- Leg 3: Malik Washington 40+ Receiving Yards (-118)
The 3-0 Vikings are double-digit home favorites against the 0-3 Dolphins this week. It should be an easy win for Minnesota, and Aaron Jones will likely play a key role in his team's scoring. Let's begin this parlay with the anytime touchdown odds for the Vikings' lead back.
Miami has allowed a league-high seven touchdowns to running backs this season. The Dolphins have also given up two TDs to all three lead backs they've faced so far. Jones could easily be next. He's seeing the lion's share of touches in Minnesota's backfield right now with Jordan Mason on IR. Jones hasn't scored since Week 1, but he's also put up 197 total yards over the past two games combined.
The Vikings will be without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson this week. That leaves Jordan Addison as Kyler Murray's top target in the Vikings' passing attack. Addison had 90 yards with nine targets last week after Jefferson got hurt. That's a good sign that he and Murray are on the same page.
On the Dolphins' side, Malik Washington continues to be a go-to receiver for Malik Willis. His 152 yards, 23 targets, and 12 receptions all lead the team this season. Those targets are also 11 more than the next-closest Miami pass-catcher. Washington has 56, 43, and 53 yards in the three games, making his 40+ yardage prop very doable. Plus, he faces a Minnesota defense that's allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.
Parlay Odds: +425
Best NFL Player Props for Dolphins vs. Vikings
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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