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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 4 (2026)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Oct 3, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Oct 3, 2026
NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 4 (2026)

Welcome back to yet another edition of the NFL Betting Primer.

My Week 3 betting card was slightly positive because of player props (again), not sides/totals, going 6-5 overall (2-3 on game picks/totals, 4-1 on player props). Same as last week. Props continue to carry the load, but we know the regression will hit in our favor on sides/totals soon enough. We’re off to a decent start with Browns Moneyline/+3 from Thursday Night Football, as divisional underdogs continue to cook on Thursday nights.

Week 3 Recap

  • Favorites went 6-9-1 against the spread (ATS); underdogs went 9-6-1 ATS (16 games).
  • Home teams went 10-5 ATS; road teams went 5-10 ATS (one neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 8-8.

Full Season Recap (Weeks 1-3)

  • Favorites went 23-23-2 ATS; underdogs went 23-23-2 ATS (48 games).
  • Home teams went 26-19-1 ATS; road teams went 19-26-1 ATS (two neutral-site games excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 22-26.

Prime-Time Highlights (Weeks 1-3)

  • Favorites went 3-6-1 ATS; underdogs went 6-3-1 ATS (10 games).
  • Home teams went 6-2-1 ATS; road teams went 2-6-1 ATS (one neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 4-6.

For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 4 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube Channel.

And make sure to read my full solo article on the Indianapolis Colts-Washington Commanders London game (which features one of my favorite bets of the week). Nothing builds momentum like waking up to money (for those West Coasters, like Chris Welsh).

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Find the best +EV NFL bets at BettingPros based on where the sharpest sportsbooks think the expected value is.

Week 4 NFL Betting Primer

Official Plays

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Patriots +7.5

Trends

  • NE current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (SU) (one-game losing streak), 1-1-1 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 0-3 toward the total (three-game Under streak).
  • BUF current streaks through Week 3: 3-0 straight up (three-game win streak), 3-0 ATS (three-game cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • NE is 0-1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, NE is 0-1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U in 2026.
  • BUF is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, BUF is 3-0 ATS and 2-1 O/U in 2026.
  • New England is 4-5 SU as an underdog since 2025 (4-2 specifically as road underdogs).
  • Patriots have covered five of their last seven games as a road underdog.
  • Drake Maye is 2-0 ATS (1-1 straight up) despite Buffalo being 9- and 14-point favorites at home the last two seasons.
  • NE has covered in five of their last six games versus Buffalo.
  • Bills are 11-5 toward the Over as a home favorite since 2024.
  • Buffalo has won 17 of its last 19 home games.
  • New England won nine of its last 11 true road games. O/U as underdog: 4-5.
  • The Patriots are 9-3 SU (75%), 7-3 ATS on the road since 2025. ATS as road underdog: 5-2 in the last seven games (71.4%).

Injuries

    Overall

    I picked against the Patriots last week as one of my best bets (one of the few ATS picks I made that actually hit). So taking them with the points isn’t just a homer pick (or not a huge one).

    Last week’s line for the Buffalo Bills’ home game was Chargers +7.5. You’re telling me that on a neutral field NE-LAC is close to a pick’em?

    I think NE would be favored, with the road divisional underdogs catching a touchdown-plus at some books. I think there’s value here with this number. Buffalo was lucky to cover last week with all their turnovers.

    And the Patriots left so much production on the table last week.

    TL;DR:

    • Drake Maye had a rushing touchdown called back.
    • WR Mack Hollins dropped a touchdown.
    • DeMario Douglas was overthrown for a touchdown.
    • Kyle Williams ran out of bounds; it would have been a 50-yard score.

    Per NFL Next Gen Stats:

    The Patriots have scored a touchdown on only one of their six red-zone trips this season (16.7%), the lowest rate in the NFL. New England has called a pass on 86.7% of its red-zone plays, the highest rate in the NFL, and has posted a 15.4% success rate on dropbacks inside the red zone, the lowest in the league, after ranking fifth in 2025 (47.3%).

    Maye has scrambled past the line of scrimmage (LOS) on 11.9% of his dropbacks from a clean pocket this season, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. That’s higher than his 10.2% rate in 2025 (second-highest), and 2.1% higher than his scramble run rate under pressure this season (9.8%). On these scramble runs, he’s gained 58 yards, the third-most in the league.

    The bad plays/turnovers were so bad they have a compounding effect on how the market views New England. But the Patriots drove into Jaguars territory on seven occasions but failed to score a touchdown on any of those drives.

    The Patriots also out-gained Jacksonville by two yards despite the 29-point final margin.

    Turnovers destroyed them, as they have all season.

    I rewatched the Patriots game from Week 3, and I didn't think Drake Maye played nearly as badly as the real-time social posts made it sound.The few bad plays were really bad. He fumbled on a pump fake and threw 2 interceptions on really bad decisions.But he also just missed on a bunch of TDs.

    — Scott Spratt (@scottspratt.bsky.social) 2026-09-29T19:57:28.582Z

    The Pats are being undervalued here, especially given how good they have been on the road in the Mike Vrabel era. The Patriots are 9-3 SU (75%), 7-3 ATS on the road since 2025. As road underdogs, they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games (71.4%). Also 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU after a loss.

    And versus Buffalo, they have had ATS success. Maye is 2-0 ATS (1-1 straight up) despite Buffalo being 9- and 14-point favorites at home the last two seasons. NE has covered in five of their last six games versus Buffalo. And even though it looks like CB Christian Gonzalez might not play, Bills CB Christian Benford also looks like he might miss this game.

    Props

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Over 51.0 Points

    Trends

    • JAX current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
    • CIN current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (one-game losing streak), 2-1 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
    • JAX is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, JAX is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U in 2026.
    • CIN is 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, CIN is 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U in 2026.
    • Bengals are 12-5 toward the Over at home since 2024.
    • Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
    • Four of the Bengals’ last five home games have gone UNDER - Week 1 (33-27 over Tampa Bay) was the lone Over this season. Worth noting: Two of those Unders were division games. One of them still saw 51 total points, despite missing the projected total, so it’s not as clean an Under signal as the headline number suggests.

    Injuries

    Bengals

    • S Kyle Dugger (quad), DT B.J. Hill (Achilles), OL Dalton Risner (knee) and WR Colbie Young (knee) all did not practice Wednesday/Thursday. S Jordan Battle (hamstring) and S Bryan Cook (ankle) were each limited. But more noteworthy is that they just had to place starting slot CB Jalen Davis on injured reserve (IR). Backup DB Ja’Sir Taylor is also on IR. The secondary is banged up for the home team.

    Overall

    My official play here is the OVER. Cincinnati is 12-5 (71%) toward the Over at home since 2024, and it’s not hard to wonder why - the total is sitting up at 51-51.5, among the highest on the board this week, which tells you the number is already pricing in a shootout rather than fighting one.

    Now, four of the Bengals’ last five home games have actually gone Under, with Week 1 (the 33-27 win over Tampa Bay) the lone Over in that stretch. I don’t think it’s as damning as it looks, though - two of those Unders were division games, which tend to run tighter and lower-scoring on their own, and one of them still scored 51 total points despite missing the number. So the recent home-Under window and the longer-run home-Over trend don’t contradict each other as much as the raw records suggest.

    Jacksonville’s defense is the other piece of this. They’re on a two-game Under streak right now, and it’s not luck - they held New England to six points and Denver to 20 the last two weeks, even as their own offense kept scoring (13 and 35 points in those same games). They’ve also been excellent ATS lately, 10-2 in their last 12 games. But I’d confidently rank those two offenses behind the Bengals heading into Week 4.

    The high total and small spread suggest a back-and-forth contest, with both teams trying to keep pace offensively.

    The Bengals’ defense just allowed a peak performance from the Steelers’ enemic offense last week, losing 30-27. If Cincinnati could play in a game that totaled 57 points against that offense, they can clearly go over 51 points against an actual good offense (that has not been pushed offensively so far this season).

    The Bengals’ defense has allowed 27+ points in two of three games this season (with Houston being the only offense not to hit this mark, due to their own offensive issues).

    We also saw this matchup early last season. Before QB Trevor Lawrence fully grasped the Liam Coen offense. The final score was 31-27, for 58 points, when these teams played last year in Cincinnati. And Joe Burrow got hurt. They combined for 750 yards of total offense. Even with Burrow exiting in the second quarter, WR Ja’Marr Chase still delivered, earning a team-high 16 targets and catching 14 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown.

    The Jaguars rank 22nd versus the deep ball this season; the Bengals rank first in that category. Bombs away.

    Between the home-scoring trend lining up with the market number and a genuinely compromised Bengals defense, I’m comfortable making the OVER my official play here. Weather also projects 67 and sunny.

    You’ll find no bigger fan of Chase Brown than yours truly. The fact that I’m taking an Under on him this week is telling (and it’s not just sorry grapes after he fell a few yards short of his rushing yardage last week). This number (16.5 carries) is just way too high. Projections have him at 14.9 carries. He has only gone over this once in three games this season. But dating back to last season, he’s gone over it five times in 20 games (20%). The Under has hit in 15 out of 20 games. No running back the Jaguars have faced has surpassed 12 carries.

    Brown topped out at 16 carries in this matchup last season (mind you, in a game Burrow did not play in). Two backs (Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor) totaled over 16.5 carries against the Jaguars’ run defense in 2025. Take the UNDER on Brown’s attempts prop.

    But that’s the only Under you’ll find me betting in this game. Jaguars TE Brenton Strange is slated for a big outing against the Bengals’ defense, which bleeds yardage to the position, nearly 100 yards per game (second-most in the NFL).

    Strange is coming off his most productive game of the season in Week 3: 3 catches/32 yards/5 targets. Strange has the seventh-highest route participation at 82% over the last two games. He’s also hit the over in five out of seven Jaguars road games.

    And for you absolute sickos, my favorite first touchdown bet is in this game: TE Nate Boerkircher (65-1). Bengals can’t stop tight ends, and he had one red-zone target last week.

    Welsh also has some feelings about Parker Washington (Smash City).

    Props

    Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 39.5 Points

    Trends

    • MIA current streaks through Week 3: 0-3 straight up (three-game losing streak), 0-3 ATS (three-game non-cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
    • MIN current streaks through Week 3: 3-0 straight up (three-game win streak), 3-0 ATS (three-game cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
    • MIA is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, MIA is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 O/U in 2026.
    • MIN is 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, MIN is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2026.
    • Miami is just 5-13 ATS as a road underdog dating back to 2023.
    • The Dolphins have lost eight of their last nine games as a road underdog, straight up.
    • Miami is just 5-13 ATS as a road underdog dating back to 2023.
    • Vikings have won nine of their last 13 home games.
    • Ten of the last 12 Vikings games have gone Under.
    • Favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Dolphins’ last eight games.
    • The Vikings have won nine straight games.
    • Miami’s last 21 road games are 13-8 Under (~62%), including an Under in their Week 1 loss at Vegas.
    • Both teams individually are 2-1 Under so far in 2026.
    • Miami’s offense has been bad - 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, averaging fewer than 13 points in two of three games.
    • Minnesota is 9-16 at home toward the total since Brian Flores took over as the defensive coordinator, the third-best under-mark in the NFL over that span at 36% (trailing only KC/NO).

    Injuries

      Overall

      Seth Woolcock and I are squad riding this as one of our “stone-cold” locks for the Week 4 slate. Brian Flores’ “revenge game” at home against Malik Willis.

      I don’t need to sell anybody on how/why the Dolphins’ offense will struggle in this game. But how good is the Vikings’ offense (especially with a banged-up Justin Jefferson)?

      Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Vikings have the second-fewest total yards (715) of any team to start 3-0 since 1970, trailing only the 2004 Jaguars (654). Minnesota’s -244 total yards margin is also the second-worst among all 3-0 teams in that span, behind only the 2020 Seahawks (-268).

      The offense with Kyler Murray under center last week ranked 31st in expected points added (EPA)/play. On the year, Minnesota ranks fifth-worst in EPA/play and dead last in yards per play.

      The Vikings are 3-0 because of their elite defense, and I expect that script to continue in Week 4. Minnesota home games (and in general) trend UNDER, so avoid the sides and slam the total.

       

      Miami will be without its best offensive player, RB De’Von Achane, for the remainder of the season. In his absence, the Dolphins will call upon Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright to fill the void.

      Context matters. Wright was inactive last week, even though he was previously Achane's backup. Hence, Gordon drew the majority of the work in Week 3.

      I handle the handcuff index on FantasyPros, so I've been watching every backfield closely.

      Wright was day-to-day(foot/stinger) but was upgraded to a full participant in practice on Thursday. Even so, Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley was adamant that he would use all of his backs to fill the void left by his star ball carrier. The books are suggesting, based on their lines, that Wright (as the previous/confirmed backup on the depth chart) is the favorite to lead the backfield (at least when the lines opened).

      Wright’s rushing yards and attempts are slightly higher than Gordon’s. It’s anybody’s guess on who actually is the lead back. The most likely outcome is a committee approach. Given that Wright’s prop line is higher and he is coming off an injury, he’s the under I want to bet against.

      Not to mention this matchup is brutal. The Vikings allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest EPA/rush allowed (-0.29). Dolphins All-Pro center Aaron Brewer also appeared on the injury report with a hand injury this week (though he’s expected to play).

      Props

      Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

      Betting Lines & Odds

      Erickson’s Pick: Broncos +3

      Trends

      • DEN current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (two-game win streak), 2-1 ATS (two-game cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
      • SF current streaks through Week 3: 3-0 straight up (three-game win streak), 2-1 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (two-game Over streak).
      • DEN is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, DEN is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2026.
      • SF is 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, SF is 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U in 2026.
      • Sean Payton's career ATS record as a head coach specifically in Week 4 games is independently verified at 13-4-0 (consensus lines) or 13-3-1 (one minority-book line on an ambiguous 2023 game).
      • Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
      • 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 18 of their last 25 home games - a real trend against them, being 3-0 straight up this season.
      • San Francisco has gone Over the total in each of its last five games as a favorite.
      • 49ers ATS as home favorite since 2023: 12-14.
      • 49ers are just 11-17-1 at home ATS since 2023.

      Injuries

        Overall

        San Francisco’s team is getting more banged up by the week, and the fact that they didn’t cover at home against Arizona gives me enough to like Denver getting the points on the road. Sean Payton is a notorious Week 4 cash cow for betting, and the 49ers are just overrated as home favorites. 49ers ATS as home favorite since 2023: 12-14. 49ers are just 11-17-1 at home ATS since 2023. Given the CVS receipt length of injuries the 49ers are dealing with and the fact that Denver is the best defense they have faced thus far, I think they are the sharp side to back. And even if the 49ers build an early lead, you know the Broncos’ second-half heroics suggest they are never “dead” in this matchup. If the 49ers can’t get pressure on Bo Nix (24th in pressure rate), the Broncos’ offense can find success.

        Nix ranks dead last in EPA/dropback under pressure this season (18th without pressure). I’d also imagine that against a high-powered offense, the Broncos look to be aggressive out of the gate on the road. Denver has faced much tougher teams (KC, JAX, LAR) than the 49ers up to this point (LAR, MIA, ARI).

        Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

        Betting Lines & Odds

        Erickson’s Pick: Rams -3.5

        Trends

        • LAR current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (one-game losing streak), 1-2 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
        • PHI current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (one-game losing streak), 0-3 ATS (three-game non-cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
        • LAR is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, LAR is 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U in 2026.
        • PHI is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3).
        • The Rams have gone Over the total in six straight games.
        • Eight of the Rams' last nine road games have gone OVER the total (10-2 O/U in last 12 road games).
        • Eagles went 8-2 toward the Under across the final 10 games of the 2025 season, but that angle is a mixed bag so far in 2026 - 1-2 (one Under, two Overs), with the lone Under coming most recently (Week 3 at Chicago).
        • Rams ATS on the road as a favorite: 11-5 ATS/13-3 SU. Interesting quirk: 11-3 ATS as a road favorite when not playing the Carolina Panthers.
        • LAR is 0-5 ATS in their last five road games (typically due to larger spreads). They have been cold lately.

        Injuries

         

        Overall

        I like the Rams. They tend to get undervalued as a true road team with no home-field cushion, and they’ve historically played well ATS as road favorites even when the final score doesn’t show it (although on a bit of a cold streak). Philadelphia’s looked overrated through three games (on offense and defense). I think the Eagles are getting way too much love here after an abysmal Monday Night Football performance. The Rams had a chance to beat Denver, and I think they are the team most likely to rebound from a loss. Puka Nacua should be returning, while Philadelphia won’t have DeVonta Smith. Feels like a layup to take L.A.

        Since 2023, the Rams are 12-7-1 ATS after a loss (fifth-best). The Eagles? They are 5-10 ATS (second-worst).

        Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Philadelphia’s defense has allowed the 10th-highest EPA per play (0.03) this season and has seen a decline in fantasy production each week (5.0 points in Week 1, 4.0 in Week 2, and -1.0 in Week 3). This week, they match up against a Rams offense that ranks sixth in EPA per play (0.09) and has the most total yards (963) over the last two weeks.

        The one prop I like in this game revolves around Eagles starting RB, Saquon Barkley. The number is so low at 69.5 rushing yards even though he has hit 80+ yards in his two full games played this season. The Rams’ defense did not allow much rushing production the last two weeks, but that was when DT Aaron Donald was in the lineup. He is not playing this week. Barkley hit the over on 69.5 rushing yards in the first half versus the Bears. Los Angeles has the sixth-lowest rushing stuff rate of the season. And Barkley has shown explosiveness at the line of scrimmage all year.

        Per NFL Next Gen Stats: Barkley has recorded an average speed of 11.22 miles per hour (MPH) when crossing the line of scrimmage this season, the second-fastest mark among 36 running backs with at least 25 carries, trailing only Bhayshul Tuten (11.46 MPH). Across 20 carries, when he has managed to avoid contact behind the line of scrimmage, Barkley has gained 160 yards, averaging eight yards per carry, the third-most among the same group of backs. The Rams' defense has hit opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 31.7% of carries this season, the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL.

        In Week 1 without Donald, they allowed 1.76 yards before contact per attempt (0.94 season-long average).

        The Eagles’ offense has also used more outside-zone run-blocking concepts (42.2%) on their designed runs under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion this season, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL and nearly 20% higher than their rate of 23.7% under former offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo last season, which ranked 13th-lowest. Barkley has averaged fewer yards per carry on outside-zone attempts (4.9) than on all other run concepts (5.3), but three of his four explosive runs (10+ yards) this season have come on his 19 outside-zone attempts. The Rams’ defense has allowed a single explosive gain on 16 outside-zone carries, tying it with eight other defenses for the fourth-fewest in the NFL.

        But again, in Week 1, without Donald, they allowed 6.6 yards per carry versus outside runs (4.6 season-long average).

        Props

        Remaining Week 4 Matchups

        New York Jets at Chicago Bears

        Betting Lines & Odds

        Erickson’s Pick: Bears -3.5

        Trends

        • NYJ current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (two-game losing streak), 2-1 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
        • CHI current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-1 ATS (one-game cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
        • NYJ is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, NYJ is 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U in 2026.
        • CHI is 1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, CHI is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2026.
        • The Jets have lost 11 straight games to teams with winning records - Chicago enters Week 4 at 2-1.
        • NYJ is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games.
        • Bears are 6-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2024.
        • Chicago's home O/U since 2024 is 7-10 (UNDER-leaning).
        • CHI's home ATS record: 13-7-1. Seven of the Bears’ last eight home games as favorites have gone Under the total.
        • CHI's home total split also flipped: 7-10 O/U at home since 2024 (down from 7-8) after the MIN game closed at 48.5.

        Injuries

         

        Overall

        Aaron Glenn’s group has been competitive every week, not blown out, and they hung with Detroit on the road. But against his former Lions coaching colleague, Ben Johnson, I have to give the edge to the offensive-minded head coach at home regardless of who they have under center.

        Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

        Betting Lines & Odds

        Erickson’s Pick: Under 48.5 Points

        Trends

        • DAL current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (one-game losing streak), 1-1-1 ATS (one-game cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (two-game Over streak).
        • HOU current streaks through Week 3: 0-3 straight up (three-game losing streak), 0-3 ATS (three-game non-cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
        • DAL is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, DAL is 0-0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U in 2026.
        • HOU is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, HOU is 0-2 ATS and 0-2 O/U in 2026.
        • Eleven of the Cowboys’ last 14 games have gone Over the total points line.
        • Seven of the Cowboys’ last eight road games have gone Over.
        • Texans have lost four straight games.
        • Houston's O/U record at home from 2024-2025 was 6-12 (6 overs, 12 unders) - a 66.7% Under rate at NRG Stadium across those two seasons.
          2024 home games went 4-5 (UNDER-leaning, 55.6%), and 2025 home games went 2-7 - a much stronger 77.8%. 1-1 O/U this season (67 and 26 points).
        • The Texans scored fewer than 40 combined points in 10 games in 2025.

        Injuries

          Overall

          Any game with the Texans defense playing can’t have a 48.5-point total. Even with Nico Collins/Ed Ingram back, the Dallas secondary is in shambles. That’s my lean.

          Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

          Betting Lines & Odds

          Erickson’s Pick: Stay Away

          Trends

          • ARI current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (two-game losing streak), 2-1 ATS (one-game cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
          • NYG current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-1 ATS (one-game cover streak), 0-3 toward the total (three-game Under streak).
          • ARI is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). Favorite/underdog role for Week 4 not yet settled by the market.
          • NYG is 2-0 ATS and 0-2 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). NYG is 1-0 ATS/0-1 O/U as a favorite and 1-1 ATS/0-2 O/U as an underdog in 2026 to date, for reference.
          • If Arizona ends up the underdog per the final line, the Cardinals have covered seven of their last 11 road games as the underdog.
          • Arizona has lost 11 of their last 12 games.
          • If New York ends up the underdog, per the final line, the Giants are 18-15-1 ATS at home since 2022 overall, and specifically 15-13-1 ATS as home underdogs in that span.
          • Twelve of the Giants’ last 16 games after a win have gone UNDER.

          Injuries

            Overall

            I’m not buying Jameis Winston as a repeatable market favorite, and I think Arizona just has more offensive firepower. If I’m playing this game, I’d rather take the Cardinals on the Moneyline as a true underdog than mess with the field goal - MetLife is a tough building to score in, so I don’t love leaning into a shootout expectation here. Especially with rain showers forecast yet again.

            This was my take from the early lookahead show, and we have seen the lines move into Arizona’s favor. So with no more value left on the Red Birds as the new market favorites by a field goal, it’s a complete stay-away for me. This is a four-range outcome game.

            Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            Betting Lines & Odds

            Erickson’s Pick: Packers – 9.5

            Trends

            • GB current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (one-game losing streak), 0-3 against the spread (three-game non-cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
            • TB current streaks through Week 3: 0-3 straight up (three-game losing streak), 0-3 against the spread (three-game non-cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
            • GB is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, GB is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2026.
            • TB is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, TB is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2026.
            • Packers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.
            • Buccaneers are 0-12 ATS in their last 12 games.
            • 8 of the Packers’ last 11 games on the road have gone OVER.
            • The Packers have lost seven of their last eight games (one win since Micah Parsons' injury).
            • GB is just 5-11 ATS as a favorite since 2025

            Injuries

              Overall

              Two teams that can’t get out of their own way. Ergo…I don’t love betting either side of this one. Tampa Bay is now missing Baker Mayfield (thumb) for undrafted rookie Jaylon Daniels, and Green Bay, as a road favorite, has historically been close to an auto-fade angle for me.

              If I had to pick a side for the show, I like Green Bay, but my real lean is the under — neither offense inspires much confidence right now, and the total was already sliding fast (42.5 down to 38.5) as the Mayfield news broke. With the total nuked to 38.5 points, I think I’d rather just bet on the wide range of outcomes in this game. Either alternate bet the Packers to smoke Tampa versus a rookie UDFA QB, or take the Bucs to win outright. No in-between. GB -9.5 pays out more than Bucs’ straight ML, so that would be my approach.

              Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

              Betting Lines & Odds

              Erickson’s Pick: Over 42.5 Points

              Trends

              • TEN current streaks through Week 3: 0-3 straight up (three-game losing streak), 1-2 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
              • BAL current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (one-game win streak), 1-1-1 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
              • TEN is 0-2 ATS and 0-2 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, TEN is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2026.
              • BAL is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, BAL is 1-1-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U in 2026.
              • Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
              • Tennessee has the third-highest game-Over rate in the league since Cam Ward became their starting quarterback in 2024 (12-5 O/U, 70.6%).
              • Ravens have gone just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games, despite the current win streak.
              • Baltimore has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games.
              • Five of the Ravens’ last six games have gone OVER.

              Injuries

                Overall

                I’d rather not lay 11.5 with the Ravens at home given how notoriously bad this team has been at covering these massive numbers. Instead, I do like the over at 42.5; that feels low for how the Ravens’ offense has been playing, and Cam Ward on the road is a low-key print fest for more scoring. Also keep in mind that Derrick Henry gets to face his old team for the first time, which isn’t the kind of game a veteran takes his foot off the gas in. Lock in his touchdown props.

                Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

                Betting Lines & Odds

                Erickson’s Pick: Chiefs -4.5

                Trends

                • KC current streaks through Week 3: 3-0 straight up (three-game win streak), 2-1 ATS (one-game cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
                • LV current streaks through Week 3: 3-0 straight up (three-game win streak), 3-0 ATS (three-game cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
                • KC is 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, KC is 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U in 2026.
                • Chiefs are 1-6 straight up in their last seven true road games.
                • Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine straight games as a favorite.
                • Underdogs have covered in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 11 games.
                • Each of the Chiefs’ last six games in the AFC West has gone UNDER.
                • Las Vegas has failed to cover seven of their last 12 games as an underdog - but that's cut against by their very hot current form (3-0 SU/ATS to open 2026, including as a home underdog in Week 1).

                Injuries

                  Overall

                  I like Kansas City here - 4.5 isn’t the kind of number that scares me off laying points with this offense, even on the road, and I expect them to win by about two touchdowns, as they usually do. Las Vegas has been a legitimately good team statistically (top-five in scoring and point differential), but this is a real step up in competition, and I don’t think their defense slows down Patrick Mahomes.

                  Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

                  Betting Lines & Odds

                  Erickson’s Pick: Seattle -7, Under 42.5 Points

                  Trends

                  • LAC current streaks through Week 3: 0-3 straight up (three-game losing streak), 0-3 ATS (three-game non-cover streak), 0-3 toward the total (three-game Under streak).
                  • SEA current streaks through Week 3: 2-1 straight up (one-game losing streak), 1-1-1 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 1-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
                  • LAC is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, LAC is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U in 2026.
                  • SEA is 0-0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, SEA is 1-1-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U in 2026.
                  • Chargers are 3-6 ATS on the road since 2025 (4-3 specifically as road underdogs since 2024) - but cutting the other way, they're 6-2 ATS as an underdog in any location over their last eight games.
                  • LAC's road games have trended Under since 2025: 2-6-1 O/U.
                  • LAC is 0-6 ATS in last six games. Also 0-6 toward the total.
                  • Seattle went 8-1 SU as a home favorite in the 2025 season (won last eight home games). Also worth noting: Seattle's SU win streak reached 12 games before snapping in Week 3 - this is their first game since that streak ended.

                  Injuries

                    Overall

                    I like this as a two-way combo - lay the points with Seattle at home off a loss, and take the UNDER. The Chargers were gifted five turnovers by Buffalo last week and still couldn’t cover, which tells me the offense is the real problem, not just bad luck. Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be the best player in football right now, and I don’t think L.A.’s defense slows him down either.

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