NFL Week 4 Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Colts Picks

The NFL International Series continues in Week 4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England. And we have an NFL Week 4 Betting Primer just for this game.

Neutral-site travel tends to lean toward favorites/unders.

NFL International Series games have averaged just under 44 total points per game from 2007-2024, with designated visitors outscoring designated home teams 24-20 on average - a real historical trend pushing toward the UNDER relative to this 47.5 total. So far in 2026, the international games are 1-1 toward the O/U.

Per Covers.com: Favorites are 48-17 straight up (SU) and 40-24-1 against the spread (ATS) for a 62% hit rate. The O/U is 30-35 (46%).

Favorites tend to fare well overseas, and Indianapolis profiles better as a favorite under Shane Steichen (who finds himself in a familiar spot). The Colts, as favorites, are 17-5 straight up since the start of 2023.

The Colts played in Germany last season and won 31-25 (the game went into overtime), and the OVER on 48.5 points cashed. They covered as a 4.5-point favorite. Steichen has coached twice internationally (both in Germany), going 2-0 SU and ATS.

This will be Commanders head coach Dan Quinn’s second international trip as an NFL head coach. They lost last year as 4.5-point favorites (game total sailed UNDER 47.5 points) to Miami, 16-13, in Spain.

Marcus Mariota started that game and is now 0-2 in his two international starts, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Mariota is now 4-5 ATS dating back to the start of last season, but 7-2 toward the OVER. Covered in his first home start last year, and again in 2026.

Travel schedule for both teams: The Colts won’t disrupt what has worked for them in the past by flying to London on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Commanders have already been in London, spending the week there practicing. The Commanders left early in the week last season as well, but that didn’t translate to a victory.

So much to unpack from a betting perspective in this matchup between two teams trying to avoid a 1-3 start.

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NFL Week 4 Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Colts Picks

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (London Game)

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson's Pick: Colts -3.5

Trends

Indianapolis’ current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-1 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game UNDER streak).
Washington’s current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-1 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 3-0 toward the total (three-game OVER streak).
Indianapolis is 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3).
Washington is 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, Washington is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 O/U in 2026.
Washington has lost 10 of its last 12 games overall, despite snapping a longer skid with a Week 3 home upset win over Seattle.
The Commanders are 7-0 toward the OVER in their last 7 games - a longer sample than the three-game current OVER streak alone.
Washington has gone OVER in 10 of their last 12 games (one of the unders was an international game).
The road team has covered in each of the Colts’ last six games.
The Colts, as favorites, are 17-5 straight up since the start of 2023.
Colts have lost nine of their last 10 games.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Seven of the last 12 international games have gone OVER the total.
10 of the last 17 international games have gone UNDER the total.

Injuries

Injury Report: pic.twitter.com/t768raDwQ3

— Commanders PR (@Wash_PR) October 1, 2026

Commanders

OG Sam Cosmi (Concussion/Throat) and S Nick Cross (Illness) did not travel to London and will not play. RB Rachaad White is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Betting Preview

After what transpired for the Los Angeles Rams as late arrivals into Australia, I’m surprised more love isn’t coming for the Washington Commanders. But it’s probably the market being sharp on Shane Steichen being solid in this spot, as the international favorite.

My play on the total would usually be the UNDER… but the Commanders’ strong streak to the OVER does slightly concern me. Washington is not only the nation’s capital but “OVER city”.

The Colts’ defense has been poor, which is why these two teams have combined for a 5-1 O/U over three games. They both rank in the bottom four in expected points added (EPA)/pass attempt and pressure rate generated.

And offensively, both the Colts and Commanders are averaging at least 24 points per game (above league average).

Now, Washington has been better versus the run (1oth in EPA/rush faced), but stopping RB Jonathan Taylor is a whole different ballgame.

And it’s still Marcus Mariota likely starting. Give credit where credit is due for his gutsy performance last week (9-of-31 for 183 yards and three touchdowns, with zero interceptions and just two sacks) against Seattle’s elite defense. They still struggled to run the ball consistently, which Indianapolis showed last week it was capable of slowing down bad offensive lines/run games by holding the Texans to 70 rushing yards (3.3 yards per carry).

It’s very possible that it’s a one-dimensional drop-back passing game with Mariota being the engine of the Commanders’ offense. The turnovers (including a pick-six and an easy red-zone-to-touchdown conversion fumble) helped Washington a lot last week, as Seattle out-gained the Commanders by a wide margin:

437 total net yards to 258
28 first downs to 17
6.8 yards per play to 4.0
33.3% third-down conversion rate to Washington's 23.1%.

They succeeded with the turnover luck working in their favor, whereas the Colts shot themselves in the foot last week. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 but still gutted out a win (credit to Houston’s defense putting Daniel Jones in a tough spot). Indianapolis still out-gained Houston and controlled time of possession. They stalled out in the red zone, but that likely won’t be an issue versus Washington’s defense (26th in red-zone conversion rate).

With a higher conversion rate in goal-to-goal situations, the Colts likely beat Houston handily in Week 3. They had the chance to ice the game by more than a touchdown before Jones was strip-sacked late in the fourth quarter.

I’ll lay the 3.5 with Indy as the “road” team in this neutral matchup. The offense has too many weapons for the Commanders to stop, and the defense played dramatically better in Week 3 against a non-Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes-led offense. No team allowed fewer yards on defense than the Colts in Week 3 (4.4 yards per play).

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Josh Downs has averaged a team-high 2.4 yards per route on a 32.8% target rate in Weeks 2 and 3 while the Colts have mostly been without Alec Pierce.
Downs has registered 20 total targets while snagging at least five passes for at least 70 yards in each contest.

Downs led Indianapolis in targets (11, 30.6% adjusted share) last week despite a lower offensive snap share (68%) than both Laquon Treadwell (79%) and Allen (73%) - his target volume is holding up on comparatively fewer snaps than those two. Downs caught five of a team-high 11 targets for 77 yards. His target share climbed for the second straight week (from 27.3% to 30.6% adjusted), even as his catch rate dipped. He left more production on the table, with 114 incomplete air yards (62% of air yards). Also ran a route on 83% of the dropbacks (resuming his new full-time role).

On Sunday in London, Downs faces a Commanders defense that has allowed a league-high 46.7 fantasy points per game to receivers and the fourth-highest passer rating to quarterbacks targeting the slot (127.7). This season, Downs has run 68.1% of his routes out of the slot, the fifth-highest mark among qualified wideouts. I like his yardage prop to go OVER 62.5 yards this week. I also like dabbling in his touchdown props. He has the third-most yards among receivers without a touchdown this season.

Colts defensive back Justin Walley has played a team-high 72 snaps (54.1%) from the slot this season. In coverage against slot receivers, Walley has allowed 13 receptions on 15 targets for 213 yards and two touchdowns, the most yards allowed by any defender, and 84 more yards than the next closest cornerback. Opponents have recorded a perfect 158.3 passer rating targeting Walley in those matchups.

The Commanders’ offense has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt when targeting the slot this season, compared to 5.2 yards per attempt on all other targets, the lowest in the NFL. Stefon Diggs has played mostly from the slot (tied for third in total slot targets in the NFL) among the Commanders’ primary receivers this season, so I expect him to draw the favorable matchup against Walley. He has gone OVER 43.5 yards in two out of three games this season, and had the volume to get there last week (caught four of his seven targets for 33 yards). His target share increased from 16.2% to 21.9%.