Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Jaguars vs. Bengals (Week 4)
The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4, presenting bettors with a range of passing, receiving and touchdown markets to explore. Finding the best Jaguars vs. Bengals player props and picks requires looking beyond the potential for big plays to assess expected volume, offensive efficiency and opportunities near the goal line.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has delivered positive early-season results in several relevant markets. Through three weeks, passing-touchdown props have generated 8.9 units of profit with a 19.8% ROI, while anytime touchdown picks have returned 12.2 units with a 17.6% ROI. Below, we examine the tool's ratings alongside the matchup to identify NFL player props worth considering, from yardage totals and receptions to touchdown bets.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Jaguars vs. Bengals
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Jaguars vs. Bengals. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 4.
Best Bets for Jaguars vs. Bengals
My official play here is the Over. Cincinnati is 12-5 (71%) toward the Over at home since 2024, and it’s not hard to wonder why — the total is sitting up at 51-51.5, among the highest on the board this week, which tells you the number is already pricing in a shootout rather than fighting one.
Now 4 of the Bengals’ last 5 home games have actually gone Under, with Week 1 (the 33-27 win over Tampa Bay) the lone Over in that stretch. I don’t think it’s as damning as it looks, though — two of those Unders were division games, which tend to run tighter and lower-scoring on their own, and one of them still scored 51 total points despite missing the number. So the recent home-Under window and the longer-run home-Over trend don’t contradict each other as much as the raw records suggest.
Jacksonville’s defense is the other piece of this. They’re on a 2-game Under streak right now, and it’s not luck — they held New England to 6 points and Denver to 20 the last two weeks, even as their own offense kept scoring (13 and 35 points in those same games). They’ve also been excellent ATS lately, 10-2 in their last 12 games. But I’d confidently rank those two offenses behind the Bengals heading into Week 4.
The high total and small spread suggest a back-and-forth contest, with both teams trying to keep pace offensively.
The Bengals’ defense just allowed a peak performance from the Steelers’ enemic offense last week, losing 30-27. If Cincy could play in a game that totaled 57 points against that offense…they can clearly go over 51 points against an actual good offense (that has not been pushed offensively so far this season).
The Bengals defense has allowed 27-plus points in two of three games this season (with Houston being the only offense failing to hit this mark because they have their own offensive issues).
We also saw this matchup early last season. Before QB Trevor Lawrence fully captured the Liam Coen offense. The final score was 31-27, totaling 58 points total when these teams played last year in Cincy. And Joe Burrow got hurt (31-27). Teams combined for 750 yards of total offense. Even with Burrow exiting in the second quarter, WR Ja’Marr Chase still delivered, earning a team-high 16 targets and catching 14 for 165 yards and a touchdown.
The Jags rank 22nd versus the deep ball this season; Bengals rank 1st in that category (EPA). Bombs away.
Between the home-scoring trend lining up with the market number and a genuinely compromised Bengals defense, I’m comfortable making the Over my official play here. Weather also projects 67 and sunny.
You’ll find no bigger fan of Chase Brown than yours truly. So the fact that I am taking an under on him this week is telling (and it’s not just sorry grapes after he fell a few yards short of his rushing yardage last week). This number (16.5 carries) is just way too high. Projections have him at 14.9 carries. He has only gone over this once in 3 games this season. But dating back to last season, he’s gone over 5 times in 20 games (20%). Under has hit in 15/20 games. No RB the Jags have faced this year has surpassed 12 carries.
Brown in this matchup last year topped out at 16 carries (mind you, in a game that Burrow did not play in full). Two RBs (CMC and JT) totaled over 16.5 carries versus the Jaguars’ run defense in 2025. UNDER.
But that’s the only under you’ll find me betting in this game. Jaguars TE Brenton Strange is slated for a big outing versus the Bengals defense that bleeds yardage to TEs. Nearly 100 yards per game to TEs (2nd-most in the NFL).
Strange is coming off his most productive game of the season in Week 3: 3 catches for 32 yards on 5 targets. But Strange has most of the best roles for fantasy TEs that are predictive of scoring. Route participation. 7th-highest route participation at 82% over the last two games. He’s also hit the over in 5/7 Jags’ road games.
And for you absolute sickos…my favorite 1st TD bet is in this game at 65-1. TE Nate Boerkircher. Bengals can’t stop TEs, and he had one RZ target last week.
Welsh also has some feelings about Parker Washington (SMASH CITY).
Erickson’s Picks
- Over 51
- Chase Brown UNDER 16.5 rush attempts
- Brenton Strange OVER 33.5 receiving yards
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Jaguars vs. Bengals
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Jaguars vs. Bengals. And you can view all of our Week 4 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Brenton Strange 35+ Receiving Yards (-113)
- Leg 2: Chase Brown Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Leg 3: Ja'Marr Chase 80+ Receiving Yards (-123)
Let's keep fading the Bengals' defense against tight ends. Last year, Cincinnati allowed a league-high 84.9 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. Those struggles have continued this season, as the defense is giving up 99.7 yards per game to the position.
Houston's Dalton Schultz put up 140 yards against Cincy two weeks ago. The Steelers' TE duo of Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth combined for 97 yards last week. So, it's Brenton Strange's turn in Week 4. The Jaguars' tight end only has 72 total yards over three games, but this could be a breakout performance. The 35+ yardage line is too low for the matchup.
On the other side, Bengals running back Chase Brown faces a tough test. Jacksonville had the NFL's top rush defense last year, and it's strong again this season. The Jags are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry while holding opposing running backs to 57.7 rushing yards per game, ranking fourth in the league.
Brown has been solid this year, averaging 65.7 rushing yards per week. However, the matchup says he'll be limited. Cincinnati will also be forced to throw it more as Brown gets bottled up. Take the Under on his rushing yards prop. He was under 62.5 yards in 10 games last year, including against the Jaguars, when he had just 47 yards.
As noted, the Bengals could be a more pass-first offense this week. That sets up perfectly for Ja'Marr Chase to have a big day. He was quiet in Week 1 but had 98 and 75 receiving yards in the past two games. He's also seen 21 targets over these past two weeks combined. Jacksonville is allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. Chase, meanwhile, torched the Jags for 165 yards on 14 catches last season.
Parlay Odds: +455
Best NFL Player Props for Jaguars vs. Bengals
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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