Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Packers vs. Buccaneers (Week 4)
The Green Bay Packers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4, and identifying worthwhile player props starts with understanding where each offense is likely to create opportunities. Rushing workloads, target distribution and scoring chances all factor into our best Packers vs. Buccaneers player props and picks.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet enters the week with approximately 95 units of profit and a 5.1% ROI from its three-, four- and five-star NFL bets through the season's first three weeks. Rushing-yard picks have supplied 25 units of profit, while passing-yard props have contributed another 7.4 units. Below, we examine the available markets using the tool's ratings and matchup analysis to help you narrow down your betting card.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Packers vs. Buccaneers
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Packers vs. Buccaneers. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 4.
Best Bets for Packers vs. Buccaneers
Two teams that can’t get out of their own way. Ergo…I don’t love betting either side of this one. Tampa Bay is now missing Baker Mayfield (thumb) for undrafted rookie Jaylon Daniels, and Green Bay, as a road favorite, has historically been close to an auto-fade angle for me.
If I had to pick a side for the show, I like Green Bay, but my real lean is the under — neither offense inspires much confidence right now, and the total was already sliding fast (42.5 down to 38.5) as the Mayfield news broke. With the total nuked to 38.5 points, I think I’d rather just bet on the wide range of outcomes in this game. Either alternate bet the Packers to smoke Tampa versus a rookie UDFA QB, or take the Bucs to win outright. No in-between. GB -9.5 pays out more than Bucs’ straight ML, so that would be my approach.
Erickson’s Picks
- Packers – 9.5
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Packers vs. Buccaneers
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Packers vs. Buccaneers. And you can view all of our Week 4 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Jalon Daniels 40+ Rushing Yards (-102)
- Leg 2: Bucky Irving 50+ Rushing Yards (-153)
- Leg 3: Tucker Kraft 40+ Receiving Yards (-123)
Jalon Daniels is slated to start at quarterback for Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield sidelined for the next few games. Daniels saw a handful of snaps at the end of last week's game but now gets a full week of prep as the starter. We shouldn't expect much from the rookie passing-wise, but his rushing ability could be on full display.
Daniels was a dual-threat QB in college, racking up 1,451 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns in his six-year career at Kansas. He had three different seasons of 400+ rushing yards when fully healthy. In his first NFL start, the youngster will likely use his legs when the pocket breaks down or if his receivers are covered downfield.
We got a glimpse of that running upside last week when Daniels scrambled for nine yards in his limited action. He also had 37 rushing yards on 14 attempts across three preseason games this year. That suggests he's willing to pull it down and run when needed. Plus, the Bucs could game plan a few designed runs for him.
With Mayfield out, Tampa will also likely lean on Bucky Irving and the run game. We should see the Bucs' lead back get 15-20 carries this week, which provides a safe floor. He ran for 89 yards on 17 attempts two weeks ago against the Browns. He's also averaging 4.5 yards per carry this year. Irving faces a Green Bay run defense that was just gashed for 242 yards by Atlanta last week.
The Packers' offense, meanwhile, could feature Tucker Kraft more than normal. The Buccaneers allow 61.0 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, which ranks 11th-highest in the league. Mike Gesicki (78 yards) and Harold Fannin Jr. (54 yards) were both productive in this matchup this year. Kraft can be next, as he's seen 17 targets through three games and had 65 yards back in Week 1.
Parlay Odds: +465
Best NFL Player Props for Packers vs. Buccaneers
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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