Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Patriots vs. Jaguars (Week 3)
Sunday's Week 3 matchup between the Patriots and Jaguars offers several player prop markets worth exploring, but finding value requires separating the best opportunities from the rest of the board. The Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has done exactly that, producing +48 units in net profit from its four- and five-star picks, including +8.8 units on passing-yardage props and +8.7 units on receiving-yardage props. Let's use those data-driven ratings to uncover the best Patriots vs. Jaguars player props and bets.
NFL Player Props Rankings & Predictions: Patriots vs. Jaguars
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Patriots vs. Jaguars. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 3.
Best Bets for Patriots vs. Jaguars
I’m a Patriots fan, and I don’t like them in this spot - I think this is a strong bounce-back spot for Jacksonville off their Denver loss. The matchup that concerns me most: New England’s best defender is CB Christian Gonzalez, but the Jaguars have enough receiver depth (Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange) that shutting down one guy (or even just slowing down Parker Washington) doesn’t solve the problem the way it does against a team like Pittsburgh. This is a big test for the Patriots defense, given they have faced Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers to open the 2026 season. That’s why they have allowed the fewest points (8) and EPA/play allowed (-0.27).
Trevor Lawrence is on a completely different tier.
New England is also down a starting guard, which worries me against a Jacksonville front that generates real pressure and stops the run, especially on the road. I had Jacksonville favored by 4 in my early projections, so at just a field goal or so here, I’m comfortable laying points with the Jaguars at home given their strong track record in front of Duval County. The Pats also seem likely to be without two more defensive starters: EDGE Dre’Mont Jones and safety Craig Woodson. Jones leads the team with 7 pressures this season. Woodson ranks third on the team in tackles.
Chris Rodriguez had zero catches and targets this season. Last week, with LeQuint Allen back in the lineup, C-Rod ran just 4 routes. He has 7 career targets and 6 career catches in a total of 37 games. 0.16 catches per game. The Jags offense has thrown to RBs at a 12% clip this season (4th-lowest), at 3 per game.
Erickson’s Picks
- Jaguars -3
- Chris Rodriguez UNDER 0.5 receptions
Best NFL Player Props for Patriots vs. Jaguars
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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