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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 3 (2026)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 25, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 25, 2026
NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 3 (2026)

Welcome back to yet another edition of NFL Betting Primer. Week 2 is done, and good riddance. Just so rough on injuries across the board, especially regarding quarterbacks.

And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games? Shiver me timbers, that’s horrendous. Todd Bowles’ hot seat just continues to get warmer in that Florida sun.

My Week 2 betting card was slightly positive because of player props (again), not sides/totals, going 6-5 overall (2-3 on game picks/totals, 4-1 on player props).

As for the Week 2 results, here’s the scoop.

  • Favorites went 8-8 ATS; underdogs went 8-8 ATS (16 games).
  • Home teams went 8-8 ATS; road teams went 8-8 ATS.
  • Overall O/U: 6-10 (unders bit back after a HIGH-scoring Week 1)

Full Season 2026 (through Week 2)

  • Favorites went 17-14-1 ATS; underdogs went 14-17-1 ATS (32 games).
  • Home teams went 15-15-1 ATS; road teams went 15-15-1 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 14-18.

For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 3 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube Channel.

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Week 3 NFL Betting Primer

Official Plays

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Bills’ Team Total over 29.5, Bills -7.5

Trends

  • LAC current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU losing streak now 5 games, Under streak now 5 games - extended badly by a 12-point home loss to Las Vegas as 6.5-pt favorites in Week 2 (failed to cover).
  • BUF current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win streak now 2 games, ATS cover streak now 2 games - extended by the Week 2 home win over Detroit (41-31, covered -4.5).
  • LAC is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
  • Bills are 9-0 toward the Over in their last 9 September home games.
  • Buffalo has scored 30+ points in 14 of their last 18 home games (78%).
  • BUF 11-5 toward the Over as a home favorite since 2024 (5-2 in 2025).
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in six of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Chargers are 3-6 ATS on the road since 2025; 4-3 ATS as road underdogs since 2024.
  • The Bolts are 2-6-1 toward the over/under on the road since 2025.
  • Under Jim Harbaugh, only the Chiefs have a lower total hit rate than the Chargers on the road (6-12-1).
  • Chargers' road games on the East Coast tend to go under the projected total. Since the start of 2024, when they have played on the East Coast, the point totals have been 19, 41, 39, 29, 30, 37, 30, 47, 47 and 56 – 3-7 O/; Well under 40 points per game.

Injuries

Overall

    From our Week 3 Early Lookahead Show: the game total going over was my favorite play in this game by a wide margin - Josh Allen at home off extra rest against a defense I haven’t been impressed by; I’d be shocked if Buffalo scores fewer than 30. They’ve been an essentially lock to go over the 30-mark at home over the last two years, and that shouldn’t change against the Chargers’ defense that has allowed 26 PPG to offenses led by Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins thus far.

    I’ve also been betting Buffalo’s team total straight up at home lately rather than messing with the side - they have scored 30+ points in 14 of their last 18 home games (78%).

    On the side, if forced to pick, I’d lean Buffalo, but I’m not comfortable betting it outright given how bad both defenses have looked at times. Even so, Justin Herbert’s teams have reportedly not performed well on the East Coast historically - an early-window, West Coast body-clock factor worth weighing for a Chargers team already in a spiral. This team is so banged up all over the place. I could see a scenario where they back-door cover in a similar way to the Bills-Lions game, when Detroit tried to crawl back into the contest.

    Ladd McConkey is the engine of this entire Chargers passing attack, and he has been practicing in full this week. As the primary slot receiver…he should FEAST. Per NGS, Dee Alford has served as the Bills’ primary slot defender this season following Taron Johnson’s offseason departure. Alford has logged a team-high 63 snaps as a slot cornerback, including 38 of 52 snaps (73.1%) in nickel personnel and 25 of 26 in dime personnel (96.2%). Overall, he has aligned in the slot on 80.8% of snaps, his highest rate since his 2022 rookie season with the Falcons (81.5%). He has allowed five receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets from the slot, making him one of just two defenders to allow more than 100 yards through two games (Justin Walley, 136 yards).

    I’d also note that, given the ineffectiveness of the Chargers’ rushing attack (31st in EPA/rush, 31st in yards before contact per attempt), this seems like a spot where they have to rely on Herbert’s arm to jump-start this offense. Buffalo has been selling out to stop the run under new DC Jim Leonhard. No.1 stuff rate in the NFL. (33%). Both starting RBs they have faced this season have failed to surpass 60 rushing yards despite a combined 36 carries.

    Per Next Gen Stats, the Bills’ defense has allowed a league-low 2.6 yards per carry on zone-blocking schemes under Leonhard this season, down from 4.9 yards per carry on those attempts last season (2nd-most), ahead of only the Bengals (5.2). The Bills’ defense has recorded a tackle for a loss or no gain on 14 of 21 instances of contacting the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage this season (66.7%), the highest rate in the NFL, after doing so on just 36.5% of such instances last season (10th-lowest). Similarly, they have allowed just 2.9 yards after contact per carry after first contacting a ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, one full yard fewer than their league-high mark of 3.9 last season.

    Mike McDaniel is familiar with the Bills’ defensive personnel to a certain extent (having coached against them multiple times per year with Miami), so I think that does favor the Bolts’ overall offensive output.

    Regardless, you can easily same-game parlay the Bills’ team total with an alt line (-6.5, -2.5, etc.) to get plus-money payout.

    Props

    New York Jets at Detroit Lions

    Betting Lines & Odds


    Erickson’s Pick: Over 47.5

    Trends

    • NYJ current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win streak snapped (OT loss), but ATS cover streak now 2 games - covered as home dogs (+3.5) against Green Bay in Week 2.
    • DET current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU losing streak now 1 game (2-game win streak snapped by the Week 2 loss at Buffalo, 31-41); ATS non-cover streak now 2 games.
    • The Lions are 6-0 toward the Over in their last 6 home games - Ford Field Over (17 of their last 24 home games).
    • Detroit's covered the over as a favorite in 13 of its last 16 home games.
    • The Lions' last 35 home games have averaged over 55.1 points, with 72% of those games (26 of 35) hitting at least 51 points. Ford Field is still the Coors Field of the NFL.
    • The Lions are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games - worth weighing against them being heavily favored at home this week versus a HC familiar with the Lions’ coaching staff/personnel.

    Injuries

     

    Overall

    I’ll never take the under in games played at “the Coors Field of the NFL.”

    The Jets offense has shown potential through two games (ranking average to above average in most offensive team metrics, such as 16th in EPA/play and 9th in EPA/pass), and the Detroit Lions’ defense can’t stop a nosebleed. Both offenses have clear advantages here, given that Detroit is also coming off extended rest while the Jets are coming off an OT home loss to the Packers.

    Dan Campbell’s team has a track record of bouncing back hard after a bad loss like the one they just had at Buffalo. But I’m in the camp that believes it will be mostly offense-driven, as they should get back some of the starting OL pieces that missed Week 2’s loss to Buffalo.

    Jets HC Aaron Glenn is also no dummy. He can’t go into Ford Field thinking his defense will be the reason they win…even if they do create some takeaways. Glenn is still looking for his team’s first interception since becoming the Jets’ HC. In all seriousness, the Jets are well aware they need to come out firing if they have any chance of keeping pace with the Lions’ high-octane offense. Aggressive play-calling, downfield shots, etc. Take. The. Over.

    And therefore, bet the over on props. Originally, I was just going to pound the table for Adonai Mitchell, but he did pop up on the injury report this week with a finger injury. Not exactly an injury you want to see from a guy who doesn’t have the strongest hands. So instead, I am pivoting to the Jets’ uber-talented rookie TE, Kenyon Sadiq, to go over 26.5 receiving yards. 5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week.

    The Lions have been BUNS vs. TEs this season: dead last in yards and targets allowed. 93.5 yards per game and 12.5 targets per game. They have also allowed 4 TDs to TEs (including 3 TEs hitting over 33 yards). So yes, also bet the Sadiq anytime TD props at 4-1. He already scored once this year. The 16th-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft scored a rushing touchdown on an end around where he reached a top speed of 20.09 mph, per Next Gen Stats, the fourth-fastest mark by a TE on a rush in the NGS era (since 2016) in Week 1.

    If New York is going to have any chance at going to Ford Field and coming out with an upset, they have to involve their most explosive playmakers. Given that Mason Taylor might be out with a thumb injury (DNPs on Wed/Thurs), Sadiq should see an expanded role in Week 3 after running under 50% of the routes in his first two games (averaging 3 targets per contest).

    Props

    New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Jaguars -3

    Trends

    • NE current streaks (heading into Week 3): fresh 1-game SU win/ATS cover streak - covered comfortably as home favorites (20-3) over Pittsburgh in the Week 2 home opener.
    • JAC current streaks (heading into Week 3): active win streak SNAPPED - lost outright at Denver (13-20) in Week 2; fresh 1-game SU losing/ATS non-cover streak.
    • The Patriots are 4-0 toward the Under in their last four games.
    • Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS at home since Liam Coen took over (8-2 in the 2025 regular season, 0-1 in last year’s Wild Card loss to Buffalo, and 1-0 so far in 2026 after covering their home opener vs. Cleveland). Straight-up record is identical, 8-3.
    • New England won its last 9 of its last 10 true road games (9-1 SU, 100%; 7-2 ATS, 77.8%) before their Super Bowl loss and Week 1 loss to Seattle.
    • The Pats are 4-4 O/U as an underdog since 2025.
      New England is 4-4 SU (57.1%) as an underdog since 2025 and will be an underdog again here (4-1 as road underdogs).
    • The Patriots have covered five of the last six as road underdogs.

    Injuries

    Overall

    I’m a Patriots fan, and I don’t like them in this spot - I think this is a strong bounce-back spot for Jacksonville off their Denver loss. The matchup that concerns me most: New England’s best defender is CB Christian Gonzalez, but the Jaguars have enough receiver depth (Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange) that shutting down one guy (or even just slowing down Parker Washington) doesn’t solve the problem the way it does against a team like Pittsburgh. This is a big test for the Patriots defense, given they have faced Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers to open the 2026 season. That’s why they have allowed the fewest points (8) and EPA/play allowed (-0.27).

    Trevor Lawrence is on a completely different tier.

    New England is also down a starting guard, which worries me against a Jacksonville front that generates real pressure and stops the run, especially on the road. I had Jacksonville favored by 4 in my early projections, so at just a field goal or so here, I’m comfortable laying points with the Jaguars at home given their strong track record in front of Duval County. The Pats also seem likely to be without two more defensive starters: EDGE Dre’Mont Jones and safety Craig Woodson. Jones leads the team with 7 pressures this season. Woodson ranks third on the team in tackles.

    Chris Rodriguez had zero catches and targets this season. Last week, with LeQuint Allen back in the lineup, C-Rod ran just 4 routes. He has 7 career targets and 6 career catches in a total of 37 games. 0.16 catches per game. The Jags offense has thrown to RBs at a 12% clip this season (4th-lowest), at 3 per game.

    Props

    Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Seattle -7

    Trends

    • SEA current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win streak now 12 games - extended by a dominant Week 2 road win at Arizona (31-7, covered -4 easily).
    • WAS current streaks (heading into Week 3): 3-game ATS covering streak (as road team) SNAPPED - lost outright and failed to cover at Dallas (20-37) in Week 2; fresh 1-game SU losing/ATS non-cover streak.
    • Seattle has won 12 straight.
    • Seahawks ATS as favorites: 15-8-2. Seahawks ATS on the road: 14-4-1 – elite.
    • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
    • Commanders are 6-0 toward the Over in their last 6 games.
    • The Commanders’ 6-0 Over trend is a real signal on the total, but it’s a fresh angle not yet weighed against Seattle’s own defensive numbers - worth checking whether that Over trend was built mostly against weaker opponents/offenses before leaning on it here.

    Injuries

      Overall

      From our Week 3 Early Lookahead Show: this is my most confident side play of the week - I’m laying the points with Seattle. Their defense is the best unit on the field by a wide margin, especially now that Washington is down to Marcus Mariota at quarterback, and I think this defense travels as well as any in the league under Mike McDonald.

      I get that it's (probably) Drew Lock as a road favorite for the second straight week. But Seattle's defense will be the reason why this team covers the point spread every week and wins. Macdonald's squad is built to travel.

      Road Warriors. Arizona could do nothing on offense last week.

      Jacoby Brissett completed 17 of 28 for 95 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception (63.8 rating), and was sacked twice.

      Per NGS,  Brissett was under pressure on 41.9% of dropbacks in Week 2 against the Seahawks, completing 4 of 11 passes for 9 yards with an interception under pressure, and 13 of 17 for 86 yards and a touchdown from a clean pocket. Seattle nearly doubled its pressure rate from the first half (33.3%) to the second half (60.0%), tying for the highest second-half pressure rate Brissett has faced since 2021.

      With the Commanders trotting out a banged-up offensive line, I think it’s going to be tough sledding for their offense.

      And there’s nobody on Planet Earth that can cover Jaxson Smith-Njigba…let alone anybody on the Commanders’ defense.

      This game is a rematch of when these two teams played last season. The Commanders were 3-point road underdogs with Jayden Daniels under center. They lost 38-14.

      Dann Quinn mentioned Rachaad White’s uptick in snaps in Week 2 was due to his “hot hand.” OC David Blough was also impressed. The pass-catching back commanded a 16.2% target share (Wk1: 5.7%) - up, driven almost entirely by second-half checkdown work once Jayden Daniels left the game. White finished second on the Commanders in total routes run, catching all six of his targets for 40 yards. Tied for the second-most targets (6) on the team. He also picked up 43 rushing yards on his seven carries - the same yardage total as Jacory Croskey-Merritt, but on five fewer attempts - with a 71.7% success rate (NGS). He also out-snapped Croskey-Merritt 52% to 37%, was hot on his tail with 6 carries for 39 yards in the first half, and played 93% of the snaps on 3rd down.

      The Seahawks defense BLEEDS targets to RBs in the passing game. Through two games, Seattle ranks third in receptions (6) and 10th in targets to RBs in the passing game (two straight overs to opposing starting rookie RBs). Last season, they ranked first in catches/targets to RBs. Smash the over on White’s 2.5 receptions.

      Props

      Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

      Betting Lines & Odds


      Erickson’s Pick: Dolphins +12

      Trends

      • KC current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win streak now 2 games (OT win over Indianapolis, 33-30), but the marquee 6-game Under streak SNAPPED hard - Week 2 finished 63 total points, the highest O/U result. KC also failed to cover as a home favorite.
      • MIA current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU losing streak now 3 games, ATS non-cover streak now 3 games - extended by a 22-point home-favorite loss at San Francisco (13-35) in Week 2.
      • Underdogs have covered in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 11 games.
      • The Chiefs are 0-6 in their last six road games. 1-6 ATS as a road favorite.

      Injuries

        Overall

        My lean was always going to be Miami getting the points - I trust the process (or maybe I’m just a total suck) of always taking the double-digit home underdog, and I don’t think it matters much that Miami just got blown out on the road last week.

        According to Teamrankings.com, since the start of the 2021 NFL season, 20 games have had a closing line that favored the away team by 10 to 12 points. In these games, home underdogs went 12-7-1 (63.2% ATS).

        They moved the ball pretty well last week versus the 49ers in the first half, but they just stalled out in the red zone.

        The Chiefs are coming off an overtime game, and teams in that spot have traditionally struggled against the spread the following week.

        KC is riding high after two big prime-time wins, and I feel like this is a potential let-down spot for them playing on the road for the first time in the hot September Miami heat at 1 PM ET.

        The PrizePicks & Underdog DFS Optimizers at BettingPros help you build the best pickem slips, with a focus on finding value on the board.

        Remaining Week 3 Matchups

        Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

        Betting Lines & Odds

        Erickson’s Pick: Browns +2.5, Under 42.5

        Trends

        • CAR current streaks (heading into Week 3): 4-game SU losing streak SNAPPED - Carolina won outright (34-3) and covered as a road favorite in Week 2; fresh 1-game SU win/ATS cover streak.
        • CLE current streaks (heading into Week 3): 1-game SU losing/ATS non-cover streak SNAPPED in dramatic fashion - won outright on the road as ~8.5-pt underdogs at Tampa Bay (23-19); fresh 1-game SU win/ATS cover streak.
        • The Panthers’ last 4 road games have gone Under the total - stacks with my own lookahead-show Under lean on this game (see Overall).
        • Cleveland has covered the spread in 4 of its last 5 games.
        • The Browns are 5-1 ATS as home underdogs in their last 6 games (6-2 ATS at home).
        • Cleveland is 2-4 O/U at home since 2025.
        • The Browns are 1-6 ATS after a win since 2024.

        Injuries

          Overall

          My early instinct was that Cleveland’s defense gets a real boost at home even if the crowd doesn’t love Deshaun Watson under center - I noted their D has been notably worse on the road than at home over the last several years, and I leaned toward the Under. Carolina’s hot start (1-1, second in the league in points scored) is the complicating factor, and there’s a fair counter-case for laying just a field goal with a team playing this well. Bryce Young is a short man that’s cooking under the new play-caller in Carolina.

          But Cleveland is a spot where weather can wreck totals as the season goes on. Potential for rain showers in the forecast.

          The Browns are notoriously tough outs at home, given how well they have performed ATS in this underdog role in Cleveland (even against how bad they are after they win ATS).

          My co-host on the BettingPros Best Bets Show for Week 3, Seth, also likes the Panthers as small road favorites.

          I think I like the props most in this game…particularly Browns RB Quinshon Judkins.

          Judkins earned a 67% snap share (39/58), with Raheim Sanders (19%) and Jaleel McLaughlin (14%) very far behind last week. His rushing workload held roughly steady (12 official carries both weeks), but his receiving role grew meaningfully - true target share up from 8.7% (Week 1) to 16.7% (adjusted) this week, on 5 catches for 27 yards on 5 targets. A real role expansion given the injury to Dylan Sampson. Judkins has had brutal matchups to start the year, so I’m not shocked he has struggled thus far. But Carolina’s run defense at home might be a GREAT get-right spot for him (they have allowed 70-plus rushing yards to three different RBs in two games).

          Props

          Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

          Betting Lines & Odds

          Erickson’s Pick: Over 39.5, Titans ML

          Trends

          • TEN current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU losing streak now 4 games, though they picked up a backdoor ATS cover (+7, lost by 4) against Philadelphia in Week 2.
          • NYG current streaks (heading into Week 3): marquee 3-game SU/ATS/Over streak SNAPPED - lost outright and failed to cover as road underdogs at the Rams (6-28) in Week 2, extending their road-underdog trend to 0-13.
          • The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games - stacks with my own early lookahead-show lean toward the Giants laying more than a field goal here (before the Jaxson Dart injury).
          • The Titans also have the third-highest game OVER rate since Cam Ward became the starting QB in 2024 (12-5 O/U, 70.6%).
          • In Jameis Winston’s last eight full starts: 6-2 toward the over (2-0 toward the over last season).

          Injuries

            Overall

            Tennessee’s offensive line is a real problem, and bad offensive lines historically don’t travel well, which “should” give the Giants’ defense a good matchup. Unfortunately, they will be without edge rusher Brian Burns on top of losing starting QB Jaxson Dart.

            There’s a little gamesmanship angle too, with Brian Daboll knowing the Giants’ personnel as their former HC and potentially helping slow down his own former offense while exposing issues on the defensive side of the ball.

            On top of that, Famous Jameis Winston was not good in his debut last week. Not good might be even too generous.

            Winston struggled badly (11-of-27, 111 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT) - New York’s offense was essentially a no-show for the final three-plus quarters once Dart was out, managing just two field goals and 182 total net yards.

            Per BetMGM, in 29 games as a market favorite, Jameis owns an 8-20-1 ATS record. Yikes. 27.5% cover rate.

            Per NGS…Winston went 0-2 in his two starts for the Giants in 2025, extending his losing streak to five consecutive starts dating back to 2024 (last win: Week 12, 2024 with Cleveland).

            Short week. Bad defense that has a flurry of injuries. OT Andrew Thomas is banged up. What could go wrong?

            Meanwhile, the Titans should have beaten the Eagles in Week 2. And if they can run the football behind Tony Pollard (coming off a strong Week 2 performance) versus a bad Giants run defense…we could very well see a small upset in New York. Co-signing with Seth as this game being the premier “upset special” of the week.

            The Giants have allowed the most rush yards over expected per carry (1.7) and the highest rate of rushes over expected (57.9%) to running backs in the league in 2026, setting up for a favorable fantasy matchup for Pollard in Week 3.

            Pollard leads all qualified RBs with a 66.7% rush over expected rate in 2026, while his 4.7 yards per carry and 1.1 yards over expected per carry each rank in the top-12. 1st TD odds listed a 7-1. Pollard has 5 total red-zone attempts/targets in the first two games without a TD yet (all last week with four coming in the form of goal-line carries).

            Props

            Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

            Betting Lines & Odds

            Erickson’s Pick: Under 43.5, Colts ML

            Trends

            • HOU current streaks (heading into Week 3): ATS non-cover streak now 3 games, SU losing streak now 2 games - extended by the Week 2 home loss to Cincinnati (6-20) as a 3-pt favorite.
            • IND current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU losing streak now 9 games, though they DID cover as road dogs (backdoor, lost by just 3) in the Week 2 OT loss at Kansas City.
            • The Colts have lost 9 in a row (confirms the current SU losing streak already logged above).
            • 5 of the Texans’ last 6 road games have gone Under - directly applicable since Houston is the road team this week.
            • The road team has covered in each of the Colts’ last 6 games.
            • Without Nico Collins, the Texans are 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, and 3-5-1 to the over/under.
            • Houston has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games in September

            Injuries

              Overall

              I was genuinely torn on this one - I don’t fully trust either team right now. My early lean, for what it’s worth, was the Colts as a home division underdog, which is usually a process I want to follow, and Nico Collins’ injury status is the swing factor for Houston - this offense has won essentially one game against a non-backup quarterback whenever he’s missed time. Given he’s opened the week with back-to-back DNPs, he probably won’t be playing while dealing with the nagging hamstring injury.

              If I had to pick the total, I’d lean Under, but I said directly I don’t feel great about either side of this game. Colts defense has been a train wreck through two games that Houston can probably take advantage of.

              I’ll roll with the home divisional underdogs against a Collins-less Texans team. Either way, one of these teams is falling to 0-3 after this matchup.

              Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

              Betting Lines & Odds

              Erickson’s Pick: Bengals -3.5

              Trends

              • CIN current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win/ATS cover streak now 2 games - extended by a Week 2 road upset win at Houston (20-6 as a 3-pt road PIT current streaks (heading into Week 3): 2-game SU win/ATS cover streak SNAPPED - lost outright as road underdogs (3-20) at New England in Week 2; fresh 1-game SU losing/ATS non-cover streak.
              • The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games - stacks with CIN’s active win/cover streak and is one of the cleaner side signals on the Sunday slate.

              Injuries

                Overall

                From our Week 3 Early Lookahead Show, this was another one of my most confident picks of the entire slate - the Bengals.

                I went in optimistic about their defense this offseason after all the additions they made, but they’ve genuinely won me over through two weeks; meanwhile, the Steelers’ offense has looked non-functional, and I don’t trust DK Metcalf to beat a corner like DJ Turner.

                Per Next Gen Stats: Dexter Lawrence has been double-teamed on 52.5% of his pass rushes this season, the ninth-highest rate among defensive tackles (min. 30 pass rushes). The Bengals have generated pressure on 45.2% of dropbacks with Lawrence on the field, compared with 35.1% without him. Against the run, they have allowed 2.9 yards per carry with Lawrence on the field, compared with 5.6 without him, and have contacted the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage on 58.3% of carries, compared with 21.4% without him.

                All in all, Cincinnati’s defense ranks third in EPA/play allowed on defense. 8th in pressure rate.

                If Mike Tomlin still coached Pittsburgh, I’d be sprinting to the other side, but with this Mike McCarthy/Aaron Rodgers combination not even scoring a touchdown last week, I like Cincinnati even on the road in a division game.

                Cincy has been good as a road team ATS, and their defense helping them win games is just another out you get to help them cover a 3.5-point spread. And if the offense continues to get into its groove…this could end up being a total no-contest.

                Chase Brown could play a big part in the offensive output for Cincy. Gone over 63.5 rushing yards in seven of his last 10 games. Averaged over 100 rushing yards per game versus the Steelers in 2025. He’s averaged 68 rushing yards per game this season while the Steelers have allowed an opposing RB to hit at least 76 rushing yards in two straight contests.

                Props

                Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

                Betting Lines & Odds

                Erickson’s Pick: Over 47.5

                Trends

                • ARI current streaks (heading into Week 3): fresh 1-game SU win streak (post 9-game skid) SNAPPED - lost at home to Seattle (7-31) in Week 2; fresh 1-game SU losing/ATS non-cover streak.
                • SF current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win/ATS cover streak now 2 games - Week 2 home cover over Miami (35-13, -13.5) also BREAKS SF 1-15 ATS in last 16 games following a win trend.
                • The 49ers have failed to cover ATS in each of their last 8 home games against NFC West opponents.
                • The 49ers’ last 4 games as a favorite have gone Over the total.

                Injuries

                  Overall

                  The Niners have a real history of being overrated as heavy home favorites in these spots, especially against divisional foes (0-8 ATS at home vs. NFC West teams). The case for trusting them: this is the healthiest version of San Francisco we’ll see all season, and nobody would be surprised if they continue their Death Star march on opposing defenses.

                  Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

                  Betting Lines & Odds

                  Erickson’s Pick: Vikings -1.5

                  Trends

                  • MIN current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win streak now 7 games - extended by a major Week 2 road upset win at Chicago (9-3) as an underdog; under streak now 9 of last 11 games.
                  • Vikings have won 7 straight, and 9 of Minnesota’s last 11 games have gone Under.
                  • TB current streaks (heading into Week 3): marquee ATS non-cover streak - extended by a stunning home loss to Cleveland as an 8.5-pt favorite in Week 2.
                  • Bucs are 0-11 ATS

                  Injuries

                    Overall

                    I alluded to it in the intro…but I cannot get to Tampa Bay in this spot - they just extended the longest ATS non-cover streak in the Super Bowl era to 11 games, and on principle I won’t back a team the week after a home loss to Cleveland. I’m with the Vikings laying the points with Kyler Murray back under center.

                    On the total, I also like the Under - Brian Flores is one of the best defensive minds in football, and I think both offenses stall out in the red zone here, which is where unders are usually made. The Vikings have the 3rd-best red-zone defense this season, whereas the Buccaneers rank 7th. Minnesota ranked first in red-zone defense last season, whereas the Buccaneers ranked 32nd (WOOF).

                    Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

                    Betting Lines & Odds

                    Erickson’s Pick: Under 52.5

                    Trends

                    • BAL current streaks (heading into Week 3): fresh 1-game SU losing streak, 1-game ATS non-cover streak - lost outright as 8.5-pt home favorites to New Orleans in Week 2 (17-24); their 4-game Over streak also snapped.
                    • DAL current streaks (heading into Week 3): 6-game ATS non-cover streak SNAPPED - covered comfortably as home favorites over Washington (37-20) in Week 2; fresh 1-game SU win/ATS cover streak.
                    • In 14 of the Ravens’ last 16 games following a loss, the total has gone Over.
                    • The Ravens have dropped 7 of their last 10 games ATS.

                    Injuries

                       

                      Overall

                      Without Zay Flowers’ availability (logged back-to-back DNPs), it’s hard to justify a play toward the over on a neutral international site (when international games typically lean toward the under). The number is massive because the Cowboys defense has played poorly, and they have more injuries in their secondary. But with no Flowers and OT Ronnie Stanley also questionable, we might see the trenches steal the show on both defensive sides in Brazil. Firm no play, but under would be my move.

                      Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

                      Betting Lines & Odds


                      Erickson’s Pick: Saints -3

                      Trends

                      • LV current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win streak now 3 games - extended by a major Week 2 road upset win at the Chargers (26-14, also an ATS win).
                      • NO current streaks (heading into Week 3): marquee ATS cover streak now 8 games, including a Week 2 upset win at Baltimore (24-17 as 8.5-pt road dogs).
                      • Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games.
                      • The Saints’ last six home games have gone Under.

                      Injuries

                        Overall

                        I really like the Saints here - enough that I said the line itself feels like a trap because I like it so much. It was hard to include them as potential 6th best bet on the Week 3 NFL Best Bets show. New Orleans has been a bad overtime call away in Detroit from possibly being 2-0 with true road wins over two potential playoff teams (even though they likely got a make-up call versus the Ravens on Tyler Shough’s rushing TD), and this is their first home game of the year. If I were ranking these two teams top to bottom in power rankings, I’d still have roughly a much larger gap between them. I like New Orleans laying the field goal at home. The 3-point line suggests that this would be a coin-flip matchup on a neutral field. Give me the Saints. Who Dat. 8-0 ATS. Tyler Shough as a starter is 9-2 ATS. Don’t need to twist my arm to fade Kirk Cousins in his first “true” road start of the season. I guess what kept it from a best bet is the fact that Cousins went 2-0 versus NO last season (1-1 ATS). Although he did intercepted in both games and has thrown at least one pick in his two starts this year.

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