Last week, Aaron Jones rushed for 105 yards, giving us our first longshot win of the season. This week, I have my eye on Adonai Mitchell in an excellent matchup against the Lions, Omarion Hampton against the Bills and the Seahawks' defense against a hapless Commanders offense. Here are the best longshot NFL Week 3 picks.
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NFL Week 3 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adonai Mitchell 90+ Receiving Yards (+445)
Adonai Mitchell has very quietly racked up 123 receiving yards this season. But what's most exciting about his production is its consistency. He caught three passes for 60 yards in Week 1, then followed it up with six catches for 63 yards in Week 2. Now he faces the Lions' 31st-ranked pass defense.
The Lions have allowed an average of 310.5 passing yards per game through two weeks. Unfortunately for them, their defense won't be much better this week with Avonte Maddox out for the season and Thomas Harper dealing with an injury that has him listed as questionable.
While Garrett Wilson is expected to have a bigger game than Mitchell, the two players have the same number of targets (14) through two games. In what should be a high-scoring game where the Jets are chasing the Lions' offense, I'm expecting Mitchell, who Geno Smith clearly feels comfortable with, to get plenty of opportunities against a bad defense.
Omarion Hampton 2+ Touchdowns (+450)
It may seem crazy to take the running back of a 0-2 team heading on the road as 7-point underdogs to have a huge game on the ground, but this is a great matchup for Omarion Hampton. He rushed for 94 yards last week in a 12-point loss, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He's also scored in each of his first two games.
While the Bills are 2-0, they've allowed 31 points in each of the first two weeks. They've also struggled to stop running backs from finding the end zone on the ground and through the air. In Week 1, David Montgomery scored three touchdowns, including one receiving touchdown, and last week Jahmyr Gibbs scored a receiving touchdown.
While the Bills have been good against the run this season, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, they've struggled with running back screens and underneath routes. Considering they've allowed two rushing scores even when stopping the run effectively, I'll back a running back with a knack for finding the end zone to score one rushing and one receiving touchdown this week.
Seahawks to Shut Out the Commanders (+1900)
The Seahawks have allowed just 17 points this season, as the defense once again looks poised to be one of the best units in the league. Now, they face an offense led by Marcus Mariota after Jayden Daniels injured his elbow last week.
After the Daniels injury, the Commanders scored just 10 points against a Cowboys defense that looked terrible in a 28-20 loss to the Giants in Week 1. While Mariota didn't throw an interception last week, he threw seven in limited action last season. I expect multiple interceptions from him on Sunday against a Seahawks defense that leads the league with four interceptions this season.
Even if the Seahawks play perfectly, there's always a chance that they allow a long field goal. However, kicker Drew Stevens is tied for the second-worst field-goal rate (60%) among kickers with at least five attempts this season. He's just 1-of-3 from 50+ yards, so the Commanders will need to get deep into Seahawks territory to have any chance of scoring.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.