Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Steelers vs. Buccaneers (Week 6)
The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Raymond James Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, October 18, at 1 p.m. ET. Our best NFL player props for Steelers vs. Buccaneers use player workloads, matchup analysis and projections to evaluate betting value. Through Weeks 1-5, the BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet produced +25 units of profit across 803 picks, led by passing yard props at +37.8 units with a 59.2% win rate and 19.3% ROI. Explore our top Week 6 prop bets below.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Steelers vs. Buccaneers. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 6.
Best Bets for Steelers vs. Buccaneers
I like the Steelers laying the points, even on the road. I think the Buccaneers are getting a little overinflated after the big Thursday night win over Dallas, whose defense is atrocious, and teams often get overvalued after a prime-time island-game performance. That game just says more about Dallas than Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay does come in with extra rest, but Pittsburgh is doing things right offensively, starting with feeding Jaylen Warren as the workhorse back. He is balling out. Aaron Rodgers is taking more hits, but he gets the ball out quickly, which helps mitigate the effects of a Todd Bowles blitz.
In the early look, I would have been happy to take Pittsburgh with more than a field goal, so I saw some value. With the lines unchanged (ie, no Baker Mayfield), I’ll take the road favorites in Jalon Daniels’ third career start. Tampa won last week because they could run the ball on Dallas. The Steelers held Jonathan Taylor in check last week.
The Bucs have played opponents close this season (1-4 in one-score games), but you only need the Steelers to win by a field goal to cash this bet.
Erickson’s Picks
- Steelers -2.5
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Steelers vs. Buccaneers. And you can view all of our Week 6 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Jaylen Warren Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
- Leg 2: Jaylen Warren 25+ Receiving Yards (-157)
- Leg 3: Kenneth Gainwell Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Jaylen Warren has been extremely productive for Pittsburgh lately. He has three straight games with at least 125 total yards, including a whopping 188-yard performance last week. Warren now gets an interesting matchup against Tampa Bay. Let's focus on both his rushing and receiving props to anchor our parlay.
The Buccaneers boast a stout run defense, allowing just 72.8 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Both marks rank second in the NFL. Meanwhile, the defense is allowing the fourth-most receptions per game to running backs. Teams are looking to get their ball-carriers involved in the passing game, while those same players struggle to find space in the rushing attack.
That brings us to the under on Warren's rushing yards, but banking on him still being involved as a pass-catcher. The Steelers' tailback should get 25+ receiving yards in this matchup, especially since he's done so in every game this year and is averaging 46 receiving yards per week. Conversely, Warren could be limited in the run game. His carries could also take a hit with Rico Dowdle back from injury.
Meanwhile, a Tampa Bay running back can also produce as a receiver. Not Bucky Irving, but pass-catching specialist Kenneth Gainwell. The latter only has 54 receiving yards through five games, but he's also seen 15 targets over the last four weeks. More importantly, the Steelers are allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game to backs this year. Gainwell should benefit in this matchup.
Parlay Odds: +430
Best NFL Player Props for Steelers vs. Buccaneers
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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