Best NFL Season-Long Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Running Back (2022)
The 2021 NFL season is only a few weeks away, and the betting market is heating up fast. Some are betting on the preseason, while others have bets on division titles and Super Bowl winners.
However, player prop bets are my favorite type of NFL bets. You don’t have to worry about the score or if some random player on special teams costs his team the game. Instead, it’s all about that one player and his success or failure.
Below are six of my favorite season-long running back player prop bets for the 2022 NFL season.
Check out our NFL Futures Betting Guide >>
The Safer Bets
Najee Harris Under 1,600.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-120)
Life is too short to bet the under. Yet, I’m going to break that rule once in this article. Last year, Najee Harris was fourth in the NFL with 1,200 rushing yards and third among running backs with 467 receiving yards. His 1,667 scrimmage yards were the fourth-most in the NFL and the second-most among running backs, only behind Jonathan Taylor. However, it took an NFL-high 381 touches for Harris to end the year with over 1,600 total yards.
Harris averaged only 4.4 yards per touch last season, ranking 41st among running backs according to PlayerProfiler. While the Steelers slightly improved their offensive line from a year ago, don’t expect Harris to have a massive improvement in his yards per touch. More importantly, Harris led all running backs in receptions (74) and targets (94) last season. Without Ben Roethlisberger repeatedly checking the ball off to Harris, his receiving numbers will regress this year. Furthermore, the Steelers have three talented young wide receivers: Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and rookie George Pickens. Harris likely gets to 1,450-1,500 scrimmage yards this season, but he has little chance at hitting over 1,600.
Derrick Henry Over 1,350.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Over the past four years, Derrick Henry has been arguably the best running back in the NFL. Despite playing only eight games last season, Henry finished ninth in the NFL with 937 rushing yards. He finished with more rushing yards than Austin Ekeler despite playing half as many games. Furthermore, he averaged 117.1 rushing yards per game last season, making it the third year in a row that Henry averaged over 100 rushing yards per game. For the over to hit on this prop bet, Henry only needs to average 79.5 rushing yards per game over 17 games.
Since taking over as the starter in 2018, Henry has averaged 101.2 rushing yards per game and 1,390.8 rushing yards yearly. Furthermore, he has at least 215 rushing attempts each of those four seasons, including over 300 attempts twice. The Titans have ranked top 10 in rushing attempts in the past four years, including first last year, as Henry is the focal point of their offense. With A.J. Brown now in Philadelphia, the Tennessee Titans will lean on Henry even more. Unless he misses half the year with another injury, the over is the easy choice with this prop bet.
Aaron Jones Over 1,300.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
Many in the fantasy football community are excited about Aaron Jones this season after the Green Bay Packers lost Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the offseason. He had 1,190 scrimmage yards last season in 15 games. However, Jones had at least 1,459 scrimmage yards in 2020 and 2019. More importantly, Jones has averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt the past three years while averaging 13.5 rushing attempts per game. Without an elite No. 1 wide receiver on the team, the Packers will lean on their star running backs this season even more.
Furthermore, Jones has been a factor in the passing game the past few seasons. He has at least 355 receiving yards each of the past three years, averaging 27.1 receiving yards per game. More importantly, his receiving numbers drastically improve without Adams on the field. Over the past three years, Jones has played seven games without Adams. He has averaged 5.1 receptions on 6.7 targets for 55.4 receiving yards per game in those contests. Jones only needs to average 76.6 scrimmage yards per game for this prop bet to hit the over. He has done that twice in his career and will again this year.
Dalvin Cook Over 9.5 Rushing TDs (+100)
While he has struggled with injuries in his career, Dalvin Cook has been one of the top running backs in the NFL. Cook has never played a complete season in his five-year career, missing at least two games every season. However, he has been near the top of the rushing touchdown leaderboard the past few years. In 2019 and 2020, Cook had 29 rushing touchdowns in 28 games. He was fourth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2019 and second in 2020. Unfortunately, Cook had some bad luck last season, ending the year with only six touchdowns in 13 games.
Last year’s struggles are disheartening, but Cook’s touchdown rate should rebound this season. He had the second-most stuffed runs last season with 61, a 24.5% rate. In 2020, Cook had 45 stuffed runs, a 14.4% rate according to PlayerProfiler. The offensive line should improve this year. Christian Darrisaw has flashed during training camp after struggling with injuries as a rookie. The Vikings also used a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Ed Ingram. Cook has a career 3.8% rushing touchdown rate, scoring a touchdown once every 26.1 rushing attempts. Expect him to have a bounce-back year and score double-digit rushing touchdowns.
The Appealing Long Shots
Dameon Pierce to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1800)
The fourth-round rookie has been impressive during the Houston Texans training camp. More importantly, Dameon Pierce averaged nearly 10 yards per rushing attempt in the first preseason game. While he is competing with Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead for the starting role, Pierce has all but won the job. He has three-down ability, meaning he won’t come off the field on third downs or in the two-minute situation. Unlike Breece Hall, Pierce will have a featured role as a rookie. At 18-1 odds, Pierce has a real chance to win the award.
Rashaad Penny to Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards (+3000)
While he has struggled with injuries in his career, Rashaad Penny ended last season on fire. Over the final five games of the year, Penny averaged 134.2 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, he rushed for 170 yards or more twice. Over a 17-game pace at that average, Penny would have ended the year with 2,281 rushing yards, 470 more than Taylor for the league lead. With Kenneth Walker recently having hernia surgery, Penny could get off to a strong start and earn the featured role. While it is a long shot, it’s worth a small bet with a 30-1 payout.
Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.