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Matthew Freedman’s Best Receiving Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft

by May 2, 2022
AJ Brown

The NFL draft was glorious. More importantly, it was profitable. In total, I tracked 120 wagers in my draft prop bet card, and the results were good: 70-50, +29.3 units.

Overall, I had a strong read on the 2022 draft class.

And just because the draft is over, that doesn’t mean we can’t still bet on rookies right now.

On Day 1 of the draft, six wide receivers were selected in the first 18 picks, and veterans A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown were also traded for first-rounders.

Of these eight players, four have season-long receiving yardage props that I’m betting.

As I make more bets, I will post them first in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my 2022 prop bets as quickly as possible, join Discord.

You can see the current odds for all 2022 player props on our BettingPros odds page. All odds via DraftKings.

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2022 NFL Player Props: Receiving Yards

A.J. Brown Over 909.5 Yards Receiving

  • Odds: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: May 2
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: The Titans trading Brown to the Eagles was the story of the draft — and this was a draft filled with storylines. It’s easy to be skeptical about Brown’s situation in Philadelphia: He has to compete for targets with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and Jalen Hurts is less of a polished passer than Ryan Tannehill — but the Eagles traded for Brown because they want to use him. Despite never seeing more than 106 targets in a season, Brown has gone over 909.5 yards in two of three seasons, and last year he had 869 yards in just 13 games. With a career mark of 10.2 yards per target and what should be the most targets he’s ever had, Brown is a good bet for the over.

Drake London Over 739.5 Yards Receiving

  • Odds: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: May 2
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: For season-long player props, unders tend to be sharp — circumstances change, players underperform and injuries happen. With an under, you have a lot of outs. But this line is monstrously low. Drake is a top-10 pick with great production (88-1,084-7 receiving in eight games last year) and size (6-4 and 219 pounds), and he’s not yet 21 years old. The Falcons have no other wide receivers of consequence on the depth chart.

Chris Olave Over 739.5 Yards Receiving

  • Odds: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: May 2
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Veteran Michael Thomas (ankle) is expected to be ready for the season — but we’ve heard that before, and even if Thomas does return he’s unlikely to command the target share he once did given that he has played just seven games in the past two years and the Saints traded up twice in the draft to acquire Olave, who has proven himself to be an NFL-ready pass catcher (163-2,505-32 receiving in 31 games over past three years). Wide receivers Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith are unlikely to challenge Olave for targets.

Jahan Dotson Under 709.5 Yards Receiving

  • Odds: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: May 2
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: Outside of the draft capital (No. 16 overall), there’s little about Dotson that stands out. He’s not especially fast (4.43-second 40-yard dash) for his size (5-11, 178 pounds). He’s not notably young (22 years old). He didn’t break out until his junior year. He didn’t declare early for the draft. He’s certain to play behind wide receiver Terry McLaurin in the passing game and maybe even wide receiver Curtis Samuel and tight end Logan Thomas. And the quarterback experiment that is Carson Wentz might blow up the entire Commanders offense. This line is egregious, but I’m far too pessimistic of a realist not to see all the ways the under could hit.

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