Big 12 Tournament: College Basketball Betting Preview (2020)

While the Big 12 conference is not deep as it has been in years past, the regular-season race was certainly exciting to watch. For much of the year, the conference boasted two of the country’s top teams in Kansas and Baylor. Baylor struggled down the stretch, allowing Kansas to win an unprecedented 15th regular-season championship in the last 16 years.

The Big 12 Tournament gets underway on Wednesday with two opening-round games. No. 8 seed Oklahoma State battles No. 9 seed Iowa State for the right to play Kansas. No. 7 seed TCU plays No. 10 seed Kansas State for the right to face Baylor. All games will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

Here is a breakdown of all the favorites, dark horses, and longshots to win the Big 12 Tournament.(odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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Favorites

Kansas (+105)
There is not a team in college basketball playing better right now than the Kansas Jayhawks. Not only is Kansas the favorite to win the conference tournament, but they also have the best odds to win the national championship. The Jayhawks finished the regular season on a 16-game winning streak. They lost just three games all year, including a two-point loss to Duke on opening night and a one-point loss at Villanova. The only other game they lost was at home to Baylor, and that came when point guard Devon Dotson was limited with a hip injury.

Kansas is the only team in the country ranked in the top ten in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Additionally, they are the best in the conference with a 52.5% shooting percentage from two-point range while holding opponents to a conference-best 40.8%. The Jayhawks have arguably the best point guard and big man combination in college basketball with Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. 

For as much praise as the Jayhawks have earned, they are not a lock to win the Big 12 Tournament. Kansas ranks 314th in the country in bench minutes, as their bench plays just 23.6% of their total minutes. In a tournament where they would have to play three games in three days, they could be worn out by the end. In addition, they are not the best three-point shooting team. The Jayhawks have been cold of late, shooting just 25% from long distance over the past three games. On a night where their outside shots don’t fall, they are vulnerable.

Baylor (+230)
Baylor spent the most weeks of any team in the country atop the AP Poll. However, those days seem like a distant memory as they lost three of their last five games down the stretch. A big reason for their poor performances was their inability to make shots. The Bears shot 4-for-17 from three-point range in a loss at TCU, and then they went 4-for-18 from three against West Virginia. 

The Bears have also been bitten by the injury bug down the stretch. MaCio Teague missed two games with a wrist injury. Mark Vital missed the Texas Tech game with a knee injury, and Tristan Clark has not played in three of the last four games. Baylor may be more focused on getting healthy and rested for the NCAA Tournament than winning three games in three days in the Big 12 Tournament.

Texas Tech (+700)
The Red Raiders’ struggles late in the year have them on the verge of not making the NCAA Tournament. Texas Tech lost its last four regular-season games to the top four teams in the conference. Last year’s AP Coach of the Year faces a big challenge in getting his team ready to overcome their latest struggles and building some positive momentum.

The NCAA Tournament committee will be closely watching their opening round quarterfinal game against Texas. Many bracketologists feel that this game has the making of a de facto play-in game, with the loser being sent to the NIT. Texas Tech may ultimately be saved by a NET ranking of 22, but it would still behoove them to win at least their opening round game to feel safe.

If Texas Tech were to get by Texas in the quarterfinal round, they could be a sneaky opponent for Kansas in the semifinals. The Jayhawks should feel relatively comfortable that the overall top seed in the NCAA Tournament is theirs even with a loss. However, the Red Raiders will be playing with desperation, looking to head into the tournament with a surge of momentum. They are the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament, but they have the third-best odds to win for a reason.

West Virginia (+900)
The Mountaineers came to life with two consecutive wins to end the regular season, including the finale against Baylor. This came after a stretch where they lost six of seven games and struggled mightily on offense.

West Virginia opens the conference tournament against No. 3 seed Oklahoma. The Mountaineers lost both games this year to the Sooners by double digits. They are built well for a stretch of three games in three days since they are so deep. However, I do not trust them enough offensively to be able to make a run to the championship.

Dark Horses

Oklahoma (+1300), Texas (+2000)
Outside of games against Baylor and Kansas, Oklahoma is 9-5 in conference play. However, winning a Big 12 championship is likely to come down to beating at least one, if not both of these teams. The Sooners have a talented trio in Kristian Doolittle, Austin Reaves, and Brady Manek. However, they do not have enough around them to pull off a Big 12 championship.

Texas coach Shaka Smart did a great job in turning the Longhorns’ season around. At one point, Texas was 4-8 in conference play. They won five of their last six games to finish 9-9 and earn the No. 4 seed in the conference tournament. The Longhorns are likely to expend so much energy in their important game against Texas Tech that they would not have much left in the tank against Kansas in the semifinals. 

Long Shots

TCU (+6500), Oklahoma State (+10000), Iowa State (+15000), Kansas State (+15000)
With as top-heavy, as the conference has been this year, there is no reasonable explanation for any of these teams to win four games in four days.

Best Bet: Fade an unmotivated Kansas team and banged-up Baylor team. Back Texas Tech at +700

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.