Big 12 College Football Sports Betting Preview (2019)
One more Saturday stands between the first college football action of the season. Part four of our five-part conference betting preview focuses on the Big 12 Conference. The Big 12 is different from all of the other major conferences in that it is not separated into two divisions. There is a true round-robin schedule in the regular season as every team plays all the other teams in the conference. The top two teams at the end of the season meet a second time in the Big 12 Championship game. Let’s take a look at each Big 12 team.
Odds to win 2019 Big 12 Championship (odds courtesy of Fanduel)
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| Team | Odds |
| Oklahoma | -135 |
| Texas | +300 |
| Iowa State | +850 |
| Baylor | +1600 |
| Oklahoma State | +1600 |
| TCU | +1600 |
| Texas Tech | +2400 |
| West Virginia | +4900 |
| Kansas State | +5500 |
| Kansas | +40000 |
The Favorite:
Oklahoma -135
Oklahoma has dominated the Big 12 Conference the last four years. They have compiled a 34-3 conference record and won four straight conference championships. They have their goals set higher than making the college football playoff semifinals for the third consecutive year. The Sooners begin the season ranked fourth in the Preseason Coaches Poll.
Under head coach Lincoln Riley, you know Oklahoma’s offense will be explosive. Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts looks to become Oklahoma’s third consecutive Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, following Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray’s impressive campaigns. Oklahoma ranked number one in the nation in total offense and yards per play for the last two seasons. The Sooners replace four starters on the offensive line, a unit that won the Joe Moore Award for top offensive line unit. The replacements have zero career starts between them, and only center Creed Humphrey returns with any starting experience. Hurts will look to establish a connection with receiver Ceedee Lamb, one of the most explosive players in the country.
Oklahoma returns eight starters from a defense that finished 101st in the nation in scoring defense. Adding to the defensive woes, they ended the year with the third-fewest takeaways in the country. To remedy these issues, the Sooners parted ways with longtime defensive coordinator Mike Stoops. They hired Ohio State’s former co-defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, whose aggressive style is predicated on taking the football away.
The Sooners have a favorable schedule outside of the neutral-site game against Texas. Oklahoma plays Iowa State and TCU both at home. It helps that these games are late in the season, as it will give the offensive line and defense running a new scheme some time to gel. Oklahoma will play on the road against Oklahoma State to conclude the season.
Other Contenders:
Texas +300
Texas endured an up-and-down season last year, en route to a 10-4 record (7-2 Big 12). They opened the season with an embarrassing loss to Maryland, but also beat Oklahoma in the regular season. They lost the rematch with the Sooners in last year’s Big 12 Championship game but finished the season on a high note with a win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Expectations are high for the Longhorns in head coach Tom Herman’s third season. Texas begins the season ranked tenth in the Preseason Coaches Poll. They will rely on strong recruiting classes from the last couple of years to replace a lot of starters on both sides of the ball. Five offensive starters return, including Heisman hopeful quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger gets his number two receiver Collin Johnson back and his offensive line should be a strength.
The concern for Texas is their defense which returns just three starters. One of the returning defensive starters is Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Caden Sterns. The safety will look to anchor a young defense that will be tested by the conferences high powered offenses.
Texas will have an idea of how good they can be after a Week 2 clash with LSU. Texas also travels to TCU and Iowa State later in the season. They look to win ten games in consecutive seasons for the first time in over a decade.
Iowa State +850
Iowa State is the third member of the Big 12 to appear in the Preseason Coaches Poll, starting the year ranked at number 24. The Cyclones have won eight games each of the last two seasons. Last year, they beat two top 25 teams but couldn’t get over the hump against the class of the conference in Oklahoma and Texas.
This year, Iowa State will once again be led by their defense. The Cyclones finished first in the conference in points per game allowed and second in the conference in total yards allowed. Iowa State has one of the best front sevens in the country, led by All-American hopeful defensive end Jaquan Bailey. Last year’s leading tackler Willie Harvey is gone but is replaced by the best middle linebacker in the conference in Marcel Spears Jr.
For Iowa State to challenge Texas and Oklahoma for a Big 12 championship, they will need more from quarterback Brock Purdy. He ended last season strong as the team won seven of their last nine games. The Cyclones replace their top rusher (David Montgomery) and top receiver (Hakeem Butler) who are both gone to the NFL.
Baylor +1600
Baylor head coach Matt Rhule brings back one of the most experienced teams in the conference. They return 15 starters including quarterback Charlie Brewer. He leads an offense that finished 20th in total offense last year. Baylor also returns their top three rushers and three of their top four receivers. On the defensive side, leading tackler Clay Johnston anchors the linebacking corps while most of the starters from their defensive line and secondary also return.
Matt Rhule is on the verge of big things in Baylor. After a 1-11 first year with Baylor, last year’s team improved drastically finishing 7-6. It may take a couple more solid recruiting classes to challenge Texas and Oklahoma, but Baylor’s program is clearly on the rise.
Oklahoma State +1600
The Cowboys were a tough team to figure out a year ago. They beat four ranked teams, including Texas in a 38-35 thriller and came within a point of knocking off Oklahoma (48-47) in Norman. However, they lost five games to unranked teams and needed a victory over Missouri in the Liberty Bowl to avoid a losing season.
Leading rusher Justice Hill is gone to the Ravens, but leading receiver Tylan Wallace is back. Oklahoma State’s offensive line is a strength as they return four of five starters. On the defensive side, half of Oklahoma State’s top tacklers at the end of the year were freshmen or sophomores. Oklahoma State enters the year with somewhat of a quarterback controversy, as redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and Hawaii transfer Dru Brown are battling for the starting job.
TCU +1600
TCU always seems to play a different style than the rest of the conference, foregoing a high powered offense and winning with a physical and rock-solid defense. Last year, TCU ranked first in the conference in total defense and second in points per game allowed. Head coach Gary Patterson should once again have the strongest defense in the conference. While they replace a lot of production in the front seven, their secondary should be one of the best in the country.
Seven offensive starters return for the Horned Frogs. They get back leading rusher Sewo Olonilua, top receiver Jalen Reagor, and their entire offensive line. Coach Patterson can choose from any one of five quarterbacks to start the year. One of these quarterbacks returning has some experience with Michael Collins starting the entire second half of last year. He led TCU to a 4-1 record in their last five games with the lone loss coming to ninth-ranked West Virginia.
Longshots:
Texas Tech +2400
Texas Tech fired head coach Kliff Kingsbury and will replace his air-raid offense with former Utah State head coach Matt Wells. Wells inherits a team who finished 5-7 and lost their last five games. Quarterback Alex Bowman is back, but the Red Raiders replace their top two receivers and top three safeties.
West Virginia +4900
West Virginia is headed for a rebuild under first-year head coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers replace quarterback Will Grier along with their top five receivers from a year ago.
Kansas State +5500
Kansas State replaces college football legend Bill Snyder with new head coach Chris Klieman. Klieman won four of the last five FCS titles at North Dakota State. Quarterback Skylar Thompson is back but will be handing the ball to two transfer running backs. The defense is experienced with ten starters that are juniors or seniors.
Kansas +40000
Those who bet the Jayhawks must think it’s basketball season. Their football team has not won more than three games in a season since 2010.
Best Bets: Oklahoma -135, TCU +1600
I don’t mind laying big odds with Oklahoma to win the Big 12 championship given the way the conference is structured. Since the top two teams make the championship game, a team like Oklahoma is less prone from being left out because of an upset. They can avoid a slip-up during the regular season and still play for a title.
Oklahoma is the most talented team in the conference. While I usually prefer teams with more consistency at quarterback and offensive line, Jalen Hurts is no average quarterback. He started for two seasons in the rugged SEC and also has a national championship on his resume. I trust Lincoln Riley and the rest of the coaching staff to get him acclimated to the new system just as they did with Kyler Murray.
Though the defense is young and inexperienced, Oklahoma has done just fine living dangerously and winning shootouts the last two years. Their overall resume may keep them out of the playoffs for the third consecutive year, but I fully expect them to win the Big 12.
TCU is a team that is worth a bet at their odds. Many people may be down on TCU after a 7-6 year, but they were one of the most unlucky teams in the country with injuries. Gary Patterson is one of the best coaches in the country and I love the experience they bring back on offense. Though they travel to Oklahoma and Iowa State, they play other pivotal conference games against Texas and Baylor at home. You know TCU will always possess a strong defense. If they can exceed finish the year in the top two in the standings, I will take my shot with Coach Patterson in a championship game scenario at great odds.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.