Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 8 (2021)
Check out my best bets for Week 8 of the college football season!
- Week 7 Record: 6-4
- Season Record: 38-31-1
LSU @ Ole Miss Under 76
Ole Miss is a scoring machine, 5th in the nation averaging 43.7 PPG, and LSU is no slouch at 32.4 PPG, but there are a lot of factors that lead me to the under in this game. The first one is that Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, the leader in Heisman odds right now, is very doubtful to play in this game. Corral had 30 carries and left with an undisclosed injury late in the game. In a Monday press conference, Lane Kiffin said that Corral is ‘not in good shape’ and ‘I don’t feel good about him playing as of now.’ Corral has a shot at playing, but he will not be 100% even if he can give it a go. LSU had a big win against Florida, and they ran the ball 43 times to do it, with RB Tyrion Davis-Price getting 36 carries for 287 yards. The Florida game went way over, but for the most part, running the ball is going to eat the clock and put pressure on the opposing offense to score fast. Ole Miss has played only two games to this total throughout this season, and LSU has only made it to 76 total once. The Ole Miss offense is carrying this over, but so far this season, they and LSU have hit 3 Overs and 3 Unders. I think the number is too high and I’m going to take the Under!.
East Carolina @ Houston (-13.5) AND Over 58
The Cougars have been dominant in the last five games, going 5-0 and winning by an average of 28.6 points and are 4-1 ATS in that span. East Carolina has also been good against the spread at 3-2-1 on the season. My trust here is in the Cougars offense as they are 17th in scoring and averaging over 37 points and have a balanced attack at just below average running and above averaging in passing. QB Clayton Tune is the force that drives the Houston offense, and they should be humming against ECU, which ranks 124th in the nation against the pass. I’m also taking the over in this game as the Cougars are 4-1 on the Over, and while ECU is only 2-3 against the Over, they shouldn’t need to score much to get this game to go Over. I think the big mismatch in the Houston passing game against the ECU pass defense plays for both sides of this game!
UTSA (-6.5) @ Louisiana Tech
Why is UTSA not getting a little more respect? UTSA is 7-0 on the season, ranked for the 1st time ever, AND most importantly, 6-1 against the spread! UTSA gets more dangerous every week on offense with a balanced attack led by QB Frank Harris (39th Passing Offense, 266.3 YPG) and RB Sincere McMorkick (45th Rushing Offense, 188 YPG) that puts up POINTS (13th in Scoring, 38.6 PPG)! LA Tech has played some teams tough. They only lost to Mississippi State by 1 point, lost to #21 ranked SMU by only 2 points, and only lost to NC State by 7. LA Tech also beat FCS SE Lousiana by a field goal, beat North Texas by 1 TD when they were favored by ten, and lost straight up to UTEP by 16 as 6.5 point favorites, so there have been some wild swings for the Bulldogs. I think the public is on LA Tech because UTSA hasn’t been great against the pass this season (92nd against the pass, 242 YPG), and LA Tech is ranked 36th in passing (266.8 YPG) but, UTSA is 7-0, and that is a lot of garbage time passes that haven’t added up to many points (22nd in scoring defense, 19.1 PPG). I think this will get ugly pretty quick, but even if it doesn’t, UTSA only has to win by seven, and I think they have that in the bag!
Rice @ UAB (-23)
Picking on Rice is a bettors’ standard operating procedure! UAB is 5-2 on the season and against the spread, and Rice is a total mess 2-4 on the season and 1-5 against the spread. Rice has already dropped games against the spread of 19.5 (38-17 @ Arkansas), 26 (58-0 to Texas), and 17 (45-0 to UTSA). The only game against the spread that Rice won against the spread was 24-19 against Southern Miss, who is in the bottom 5 of many places 130 team Power Rankings. UAB isn’t great on offense, but they are so good on defense (20th in scoring, 19 PPG), and Rice is so bad on offense (126th, 16 PPG) that I don’t think it will take them much to get to 23 points, and I’m not sure if Rice will score at all. Rice has been shut out twice and only gone over 17 points once against an FCS school. This is a lot of points to lay for a team that is only averaging 26 points, but Rice is epically bad, and I have faith they’ll be bad enough to lose by 23!
Other Bets I Like:
- SMU-14 vs. Tulane
- Clemson @ Pitt Under 48
- Memphis (-1.5) @ UCF
- Cincinnati @ Navy Over 49
- Alabama -25 vs. Tennessee
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Scott Bogman is a featured writer for BettingPros. For more from Bogman, check out his archive and follow him @BogmanSports.