Boston Red Sox Team Preview (2020)

The Boston Red Sox are an interesting team to handicap for the 2020 season, as their future is in flux. Commissioner Rob Manfred is still in the process of investigating the team’s role in the sign-stealing scandal. What Major League Baseball finds and what repercussions would follow both remain a mystery. What we know is that manager Alex Cora was fired as a result of his role while with the Astros. Cora is replaced by interim manager and former bench coach Ron Roenicke, who has four years of managerial experience, as he spent 2011-2015 with the Brewers.

The Red Sox seemingly enraged their fans after dealing former MVP Mookie Betts and former Cy Young winner David Price to the Dodgers. In return, the Red Sox acquired a package that included outfielder Alex Verdugo, pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol, and shortstop Jeter Downs. Yes, the Red Sox acquired a player named after Derek Jeter! Many scouts around baseball say Boston made out pretty well in the deal. The young players are promising, and the team was able to shed Betts’ $27 million salary and most of the $96 million still owed to Price. However, that will not make Red Sox Nation happy in the short-term. The Red Sox now enter 2020 with a much less realistic chance of contending.

Here is a look at all futures odds for the Boston Red Sox. We make predictions on which are the best bets and others that offer little value (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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Win Total: 84.5

After their World Series campaign of 2018, in which they won 108 games, the Red Sox came back down to earth with 84 wins in 2019. Those 84 wins happened with Mookie Betts and David Price on the roster. Now, oddsmakers have set their win total around that mark even though their two studs are gone. If there is one thing oddsmakers know, it’s how to take advantage of the public’s mindset when setting their lines. The average bettor is looking at how the offseason played out and assuming there is no way the Red Sox exceed their 84 wins from a year ago. However, a deeper dive would tell you it’s a strong possibility. 

The Red Sox return an outstanding trio in J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. The projected top two teams in the division (Yankees and Rays) are strong contenders. However, Boston will still play 36 games against the lowly Orioles and Blue Jays. Red Sox fans also have to love the news coming out of the Bronx in the last few days. Luis Severino will miss the 2020 season as he undergoes Tommy John surgery. In addition, Giancarlo Stanton may not be ready for opening day, as he deals with a calf strain. Perhaps the Yankees will not run away with the division as many projected. 

The biggest question mark for Boston is pitching, specifically, whether they have enough depth behind Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez. Sale is apparently over his illness and is ready to throw in spring training. Rodriguez is coming off his best season ever, as he won 19 games and had a career-low 3.81 ERA. Boston will need rebound seasons from Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez in order to stay in contention for a Wild Card spot.  

Verdict: Fade the public, bet the over 84.5 wins

AL East Winner: +1100

It’s not common to see the Red Sox with such inflated odds to win the division. However, that’s what happens when the Yankees win 103 games the year prior, then add ace Gerritt Cole to the top of their rotation. The Rays were no slouches either last year, as they won 96 games and ran away with a Wild Card spot. Tampa Bay’s top three pitchers (Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow) are so formidable that they should be able to avoid long losing streaks with them pitching multiple times a week. The Red Sox need a lot to go right for them to keep pace in the division all year long. While contending for a Wild Card is possible, winning the division does not seem likely.

Verdict: Pass, not enough value with the Yankees and Rays being so strong

AL Winner: +1900

At +1900, the Red Sox are the ninth-highest favorite in the American League to win the pennant. A lot of factors are at play with odds like these. First, oddsmakers are not giving the Red Sox a realistic chance of winning the division. While we have seen many Wild Card teams get hot and go on to win the World Series (the Nationals did it just last year), Boston does not appear deep enough to contend with the league’s best. Those that take a shot on this bet are assuming that the Red Sox stay in contention long enough to add pieces at the trade deadline. However, the Mookie Betts and David Price deal tells us the front office’s mentality heading into the season. They appear happier maneuvering for financial flexibility than they are with “going for it” this year.

Verdict: Pass, they are only the ninth-highest favorite for a reason

World Series Winner: +3300

If we are not picking the Red Sox to win the division or the pennant, we are certainly not buying that they have a World Series run in them. Think about the gauntlet of teams they would have to beat en route to a championship. The Yankees, Astros, Rays, and Twins are certainly all better teams on paper. Then it’s likely a rematch with their old teammates in Betts and Price with the Dodgers. Even if it’s not the Dodgers, the next three to four National League contenders all possess better starting rotations and bullpens than the Red Sox. All is not doomed for the future of the Red Sox, but Boston fans should be thrilled with simply contending for 85-90 wins and a Wild Card berth.

Verdict: Pass

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.