Navigate

Browns vs. Chiefs NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 15)

by |

Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Browns vs. Chiefs.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 19 games.
  • The Chiefs have won 18 of their last 19 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 19 of the Chiefs’ last 26 games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last nine road games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 25 home games
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games.
  • The Chiefs have scored last in five of their last six home games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games.
  • The Browns have lost 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Browns are 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 road appearances as underdogs and 6-3 as home underdogs (5-2 over the last seven games as home underdogs).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 home games.
  • Cleveland is 10-5 on the ML at home.
  • The Browns have won five of their last six home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last nine home games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns have scored last in 12 of their last 13 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Browns’ last nine games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites and 9-6 as a favorite.

Totals:

  • Each of the Chiefs’ last three road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Chiefs’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line (15 of the last 22).
  • Nineteen of the Chiefs' last 24 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just two teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11 and the Panthers in Week 12).
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 3-4 toward the over at home this season (Under 43 points per game).
  • The Browns are 4-2 toward the over in their last six games with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback (50-point average). He is 2-1 toward the over on the road.
  • Seven of the Browns’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns' last 17 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 17-13-1 toward the over in their last 31 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8, Week 12, and Week 13, both division home matchups).
  • The Browns are 3-3 toward the over at home (over 42.2 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 10-5 toward the under at home.

Overall:

What else is there to say about the Kansas City Chiefs? They play to win but not to cover. I backed them last week and felt great after the first half against the Chargers. But ultimately, they fell short of the cover, winning 19-17 for the second straight week.

Ten of their 12 wins have been in one-score games, and they have won all the close games they have played this season. The Chiefs haven't covered the spread as a favorite since the start of October.

KC is so overdue to cover a game (and potentially blow another team out) after failing to do so in their last seven contests. Part of that has been related to overinflated spreads. But KC has covered two of their three games this season as small favorites. And on the road - where the line favors the home team - KC is 3-3 ATS.

Four points hardly seem enough (even for KC) on the road against a 3-10 Browns team.

Cleveland's defense is the exact matchup for the Chiefs to start generating explosive plays.

As for the total, I like the over. Each of the Chiefs’ last three road games has gone OVER the total points line.

I expect explosive offensive plays for KC against the Browns’ defense that ranks 7th in yards per play. Jameis Winston is a human over machine and should be able to do enough offensively against the Chiefs’ defense, which has struggled since they lost cornerback Jaylen Watson. In Week 14, KC also suffered a major defensive injury, losing CB Joshua Williams to a chest injury (although he has practiced in full).

I will note that there is expected to be some weather in this game, with some rain and wind. The total has not moved too much, though, so I don’t think it influences my outlook on the contest. If anything, I would hope for an overreaction by the market on the total and back the over. Also, rainy, wet conditions hardly seem to favor the team with a turnover machine as their starting QB.

Props:

What is one of the Chiefs’ biggest weaknesses? Stopping tight ends.

The Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season. Will Travis Kelce finally score a TD this week? Yes.

Last week, Kelce had six targets, five receptions, and 45 yards, leading the team in receptions. Two red-zone targets were caught for 13 yards and no touchdowns. Kelce is running ice cold in the TD department, but it likely won't last. He is seeing too many red-zone targets every week not to score soon (+130 for anytime TD, +750 first TD)

Xavier Worthy: 6 targets, five receptions, 41 yards. The rookie led the Chiefs in snaps played and routes run.

The rookie has been coming on as of late, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards (203) since Week 11. He has four catches or more in four straight games, with 40-plus yards. Keep taking his overs on with the receiving line set at 38.5 receiving yards. OVER. Especially against a leaky Browns secondary that ranks second in deep passes faced this season.

David Njoku: The main target, seeing 13 targets (35% Target share), catching seven passes for 42 yards and a touchdown. Njoku was targeted three times in the red zone and caught one for a touchdown.

Njoku continued his dominance in the short-yardage game but struggled to capitalize on his team-leading Target share. He had 112 air yards but finished with just 42 yards on the seven grabs. He should stay hot against the Chiefs. They have allowed the most yards to TEs this season. Take the MORE THAN on Njoku's 47.5 yards on Prizepicks. He went MORE THAN in three of his last five with Jameis Winston as the Browns QB1.

However, Njoku is questionable to play this week. If anything, I’d shift props to Cedric Tillman, who should be returning from his concussion this week.

My Picks:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App