Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The Buffalo Bills are off to a 2-1 start. In Week 1, they lost a close game to a tough Pittsburgh Steeler defense. The offense has been on fire ever since. The Buffalo Bills are averaging 33 points per game, and the surprising part has been the balance. Last year the Buffalo Bills struggled running the ball. This year they rank #7 in rushing offense with an average of 127 rushing yards per game. The duo of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary has been a big part of this, along with the beefed-up offensive line. This team is good all around. They rank #4 overall in total defense and #10 in total offense.
Houston Texans are in for a rough patch. They placed Tyrod Taylor on injured reserve this week and have no plans of starting Deshaun Watson anytime soon. Rookie QB Davis Mills had his first start last week, and it was underwhelming. They played the best defense in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers, but this week they will be playing another top defense in the Buffalo Bills. Houston is in the bottom half of the NFL in almost all statistical categories, and Tyrod Taylor being out will make those statistics drop even more.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Buffalo Bills -14, Total 49
- Last Game: January 4, 2020, Houston 22-19
- Current Winning Streak: Houston Texans (2)
- Houston Texans lead series 6-4
- Houston Texans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five away games
- Buffalo Bills are 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games.
- The over has hit in 4 of Cleveland’s last six games
- NFL: Away underdogs are 19-8 covering the spread this year
Overview
Buffalo has been great against the spread. 11-3 in their last 14 games against the spread is remarkable. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the reason for this. He is the second-best offensive play-caller in the NFL. He is creative in getting the ball out in different ways. That is crucial for this game. We know Buffalo is going to score. They are averaging 33 points per game this year, and they are going up against a defense that is giving up an average of 25 points per game. Two of the teams Houston played were the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers. Both are in the bottom half of the NFL offensively. That means Buffalo is going to be able to score points against this Houston Texans team. They have the potential to score 35 + points this week.
The Texans are going to struggle to score against the Buffalo Bills. Currently, the Texans run the ball 60% of the time. This week they are going up against the #7 rushing defense in the NFL. Both times the Texans play a top ten rushing defense this year, they have averaged under 2.9 yards per rush. In both of these games, their running backs failed to find the endzone as well. The Texans will struggle to move the ball when they rely on Davis Mills to throw against this tough Buffalo secondary. That looks great for Buffalo to cover the spread. They have an elite offense that will put up points, and they have the defense to prevent the Texans from scoring.
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Bottom Line
Buffalo is great against the spread. 11-3 is a 79% hit rate. That winning percentage is fantastic for any bettor. Throw in Buffalo’s ability to score and Houston’s lack of defense. This turns out to be a great play. Houston also has a rookie QB starting who will make mistakes. That gives Buffalo more opportunities to score on offense. I am going to tease the spread down to 13 points. That is just in case Buffalo gets two field goals instead of a touchdown. This play has too much value to avoid this week. I am on the Bills Mafia train this week.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -13 (-120)
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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.