Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds and Game Pick (2021)
As the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs each have talented young quarterbacks surrounded by loads of talent on both sides of the ball, perhaps we should get used to seeing the Bills and Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship game for years to come. The Chiefs are making their third straight AFC Championship game appearance, and Patrick Mahomes is 24-1 in his last 25 games as a starter. However, this game’s question all week will be if Mahomes can get cleared from a concussion he suffered last week to play this Sunday. Even if he does play, can the Bills continue their magical run and get back to the franchises’ first Super Bowl since making four straight appearances from 1990-1993?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Chiefs -2.5; O/U 54
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Start Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: October 19, 2020 – Chiefs 26, Bills 17
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BUF
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+3
-106
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o54
-110
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+143
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KC
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-3
-115
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u54 -110
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-165
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View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Bills vs. Chiefs >>
Overview
The Buffalo Bills have won 11 of their last 12 games, with the only loss in that span from a last-second loss on a Hail Mary to the Arizona Cardinals. Seven of Buffalo’s last eight wins have come by double digits, so it could be argued they are playing the best football of any of the four teams left at the moment. While their offense finished the regular season ranked second in the league in scoring at 31.3 PPG, their defense is the biggest reason they are still alive in the playoffs. The Bills held the Ravens to a season-low three points and did not let Lamar Jackson beat them with his legs, as they limited him to just 34 yards rushing on nine attempts. Buffalo made history on two separate accounts with their win over Baltimore. They are the second team in the last 10 seasons to win a playoff game after being held to fewer than 225 total yards. Also, they became the first team in NFL history to win a postseason game by 14 or more points after getting out-rushed by at least 120 yards. Josh Allen’s 62.2% completion percentage was his lowest in the last six games, and his 206 passing yards were his fewest in the last eight games. However, Bills optimists will point out that the wind and overall elements were a big factor in Buffalo’s inability to successfully throw the football against the Ravens.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the first team to host three straight conference championship games since the Philadelphia Eagles did it from 2002-2004. Patrick Mahomes is 24-1 SU in his last 25 games as a starter, but many have soured on the Chiefs given that they have not covered a spread since their 35-9 Week 8 win against the Jets. Since that win over the Jets, the Chiefs have won in a variety of ways. They have won shootouts (scoring 30 or more points four times) and defensive struggles (holding opponents to 17 points or less three times). Outside of Mahomes’s concussion, the Chiefs have other injury concerns worth monitoring this week. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not played since their Week 15 game against the Saints. Also, cornerback Bashaud Breeland suffered a concussion last week and is in concussion protocol similar to Mahomes. According to Adam Schefter, Mahomes some of the biggest steps in clearing the protocol and being activated for Sunday. However, whether or not he will play Sunday will likely not come until later in the week.
Trends
- The home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven AFC Championship games.
- The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Bills.
- The under is 4-1 in the last five games between Buffalo and Kansas City.
- The Bills have been leading at halftime in 10 of their last 11 games.
Bottom Line
To beat the Kansas City Chiefs, you need to be able to match them score for score. The Buffalo Bills are one of the few teams in the league that can do that, as they have averaged 34.7 PPG since Week 9 of the regular season. Buffalo has been a nightmare to scout lately, as they have seemingly morphed their offense completely in their two playoff games. In their first game without injured running back Zack Moss last week, the Bills attempted just three runs in the first half. It would behoove Buffalo to establish some semblance of a running game with either Devin Singletary or Josh Allen, considering Kansas City ranks 31st in run defense in terms of DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Defensively, look for Buffalo to employ a similar strategy to the one used in their first meeting in Week 6. The Bills refused to let the big-play ability of Tyreek Hill beat them, and two high safeties were used to keep the Chiefs’ vertical passing game from hitting big chunk plays. If the Bills can stay patient with their “bend but don’t break†philosophy, they can force Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker to beat them. Butker looked shaky against Cleveland last week as he missed a field goal attempt and an extra point. If Buffalo once again dares Kansas City to run the football, they will have to clog running lanes and tackle better than they did in Week 6. However, in a game of “pick your poison,†Buffalo’s coaching staff will certainly live with Kansas City’s running game securing yards than dealing with Patrick Mahomes’ arm.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott worked under Andy Reid in Philadelphia, so do not underestimate the importance of what their relationship means in this game. McDermott knows Reid’s tendencies and should adapt and find ways to exploit those tendencies this week.
The sign of a good football team is when they have the ability to win games in a variety of ways. In Buffalo’s 11 wins in their last 12 games, they have won in every conceivable fashion from shootouts to defensive struggles. Even if Kansas City’s offense is clicking and dominating time of possession, Buffalo has shown they are comfortable playing that way as well. In their two playoff wins over the Colts and Ravens, the Bills have lost the time of possession battle nearly 70:00-50:00. However, Buffalo’s defense is playing too well at the moment to bank on a third-straight game where they struggle to get off the field.
Even if Mahomes clears the concussion protocol, his toe injury will affect his mobility in the pocket and ability to extend plays. The Bills defense will capitalize on this, and Josh Allen will save his best playoff performance for the biggest stage. Take the Bills and the points.
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