Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick (2021)
This weekend Sunday Night Football offers us a potential preview of the AFC Championship Game. The 3-1 Buffalo Bills will head to Kansas City to play the 2-2 Chiefs at Arrowhead. This game needs no introduction, so we’ll get right into the analysis below.
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Details
- Opening Line: O/U: 57 |KC -3
- Current Line: O/U: 56.5 | KC -2.5
Overview
After dropping their season opener, Buffalo has rattled off three-straight wins in dominant fashion.
The Chiefs have had a tepid start to the year, but they got back on track in Week 4 by defeating the hapless Philadelphia Eagles 42-30. Patrick Mahomes threw for five touchdowns, three of those going to Tyreek Hill, who went bonkers with 11 receptions for 186 yards.
The offense won’t be an issue for either of these teams, as both possess explosive units featuring several weapons. Below, we’ll compare how these two teams match up metrically.
Numbers Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
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Average Offensive Snaps
- BUF: 76.5
- KC: 66.8
% Run Plays
- BUF: 39%
- KC: 35%
% Pass Plays
- BUF: 61%
- KC: 65%
EPA Per Run
- BUF: -0.07
- KC: -0.09
EPA Per Pass
- BUF: 0.05
- KC: 0.37
Both teams’ running games have looked subpar on paper. That’s what happens when your team starts Allen or Mahomes.
Mahomes currently leads the NFL in passing touchdowns with 14, while Allen has thrown for nine. Despite the gaudy numbers, both these quarterbacks haven’t played to their full potential. They have been plagued by turnovers and uncharacteristically missed throws to start the year.
Trends
- Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC
- Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. AFC
- Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings
Bottom Line
This game will come down to whose defense can withstand the offensive onslaught. The Bills are PFF’s No. 1 rated defense; however, these are the quarterbacks they have faced: The corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills, and Taylor Heinicke. The Chiefs rank No. 31 in defense according to PFF, and they have gotten shredded routinely in the first four games. All signs point to the Bills in this spot on paper, but we know they haven’t faced anyone as talented as Mahomes. At less than a field goal at home, I’ll back the Chiefs here.
Pick: Kansas City -2.5
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.