Butler Bulldogs vs. Villanova Wildcats Odds & Game Pick

by Mike Spector |
Jan 21, 2020

The #13 Butler Bulldogs take on the #9 Villanova Wildcats in a Big East battle. Each team needs a win to keep pace with the Seton Hall Pirates, who remain the only undefeated team in the conference. If Villanova wins, they remain one game behind the Pirates in the loss column. If Butler wins, they would vault into a three-way tie for second place. These teams have met 13 times since Butler joined the conference in 2013-14. Villanova owns a 10-3 series edge.

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Details

Opening Lines: Villanova -4 (at FanDuel)
Current Line: Villanova -4
O/U: 129
Location: Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA
Start Time: Tuesday, January 21st- 7:00 ET
Last Meeting: March 2, 2019- Villanova def. Butler 75-54

Overview

Just last week, Butler was considered as one of the biggest surprises in college basketball. They were ranked #5 in the AP Poll, were undefeated in the conference, and controlled their own destiny for first place in the Big East as a home date with Seton Hall loomed. However, losses to Seton Hall and DePaul have sent them plummeting down in the polls and the conference standings. If Butler loses to Villanova, they would suddenly be three games behind Seton Hall in the loss column. Thus, they would not have much of a chance at a regular-season championship.

While Butler still ranks fifth in the country with 57.1 PPG allowed, they have played poorly in back-to-back games. They allowed Seton Hall and DePaul to score 78 and 79 points respectively. Seton Hall shot 41.4% from the field, while DePaul shot a staggering 48.9%. This included going 10-17 (58.8%) from three-point range. The lone bright spot is Butler hung tough on the boards in these two games, out-rebounding both the Pirates and Blue Demons. The Bulldogs need to find a consistent second scoring option behind Kamar Baldwin. Forward Sean McDermott is the only other player averaging double figures at 11.5 PPG.

It has not been pretty at times, but Villanova has won 10 of its last 11 games. This is a streak that includes a home win over then #1 Kansas, and on the road at Creighton who has spent some time in the top 25. Uncharacteristically, Villanova has shot 35.2% from three-point range on the season, though they continue to make that a staple of their offense. They rank 20th in the country with 27.6 three-point attempts per game.

This is the youngest team head coach Jay Wright has had in quite some time. They do not have any seniors on scholarship and give significant minutes to two freshmen (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Justin Moore). It seems like a different player steps up big every night for the Wildcats. They have five players averaging in double figures, led by Saddiq Bey (15.1 pts) and Colin Gillespie (14.9 pts). Villanova is about to enter its toughest seven-game stretch of the season. A win over Butler would be a big lift considering they play three of their next four games on the road.

Trends

Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Bulldogs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Wildcats are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Wildcats are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 home games.
Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games.
Under is 9-4 in Wildcats last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Bottom Line

Villanova looks to further their recent dominance over Butler. They have won the last four head-to-head matchups by an average of 14.8 PPG. The Wildcats play many of their biggest games at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. However, they will enjoy more of a home-court advantage playing in the friendly confines of their on-campus arena where they have won 12 straight games dating back to last year. Villanova has lost just once to Butler at the Finneran Pavilion in the last seven seasons.

On paper, Villanova looks to have more balanced scoring than the Bulldogs. Though it has not hurt them much to this point, Kamar Baldwin has attempted more than double the amount of field goals of every Bulldog except Sean McDermott. To beat a team like Villanova on their home floor, they will need someone else to help shoulder the load. Swingman Jordan Tucker is more than capable, as he averages nearly 40% shooting from three-point range.

The Wildcats will likely use a lot of different players to guard Baldwin. They will start with their tough point guard Colin Gillespie but will rotate guys like Saddiq Bey, Jermaine Samuels, and Justin Moore who provide more length and can alter his shot better. Villanova has won a majority of their games of late with their defense. In the last seven games, they have held more teams under 60 points (three) than they have allowed to score more than 70 (two).

Butler is no slouch on defense themselves. They rank 15th in the country, allowing just a 37.7% field goal percentage. More importantly against a team like Villanova, they rank 12th in the country in three-point field goal defense, allowing just 27.9% on the season. Villanova has scored more than 70 points just twice in the last seven games. Look for Butler to run Villanova off the three-point line as much as possible. They will force the Wildcats to do something they are not accustomed to doing: making tough twos.

Butler is too good of a defensive team to play the way they have played in the last two games. They will take advantage of a Villanova team that is in an offensive slump (by Jay Wrightâ€™s standards). This game has the makings of an old-school Big East grind. While the Wildcats are favored to win the game, the safer bet is the under.

PICK: UNDER 129