Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev: 2024 Wimbledon Men’s Semifinals Picks
The Men’s Wimbledon semifinals are loaded with three former Grand Slam champions, and none of those are world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, as Daniil Medvedev crashed the party and denied tennis fans a French Open semifinal rematch between Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev had lost five straight matches to Sinner before his five-set quarterfinal triumph, and he now looks to deprive Alcaraz of the chance of becoming the ninth man in the Open Era to successfully defend the Wimbledon Gentlemen’s singles title.
Alcaraz’s potential history is not the only kind that can be made for the rest of the tournament, as Novak Djokovic vies for his record 25th Grand Slam and eighth Wimbledon title. He faces the only non-former Grand Slam champion left, Lorenzo Musetti, who had been 2-3 in five career matches at Wimbledon before this year.
Read on for 2024 Men’s Wimbledon picks and predictions for the semifinals match: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev.
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2024 Men’s Wimbledon Semifinal Picks: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Medvedev had +3000 pre-tournament odds to win Wimbledon, the eighth-shortest on the Men’s side, in large part because his path to a championship would likely have gone through Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic. While Medvedev was impressing in ousting Sinner in five sets in the quarterfinal, beating Alcaraz on grass, albeit his least preferred surface, is an arduous task, especially directly following a grueling four-hour marathon.
Alcaraz has won 41 of his last 44 Grand Slam matches, and his 12-1 career record in five-set matches is the best in the Open Era. Though Medvedev hit 13 winners in the fifth set alone against Sinner, that was likely a product of the Italian’s limited movement after needing two medical timeouts, which Medvedev noted in his post-match interview.
This is a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Alcaraz won in straight sets 6-3, 6-3, 6-3. The Spaniard broke Medvedev six times in that match (and had 14 break-point opportunities), while also boasting a much better first-serve percentage (71% vs. Medvedev’s 59%). Alcaraz should advance to a second straight Wimbledon final, but Medvedev does have two career victories in six head-to-head matches against Alcaraz. Thus, that experience as well as Alcaraz dropping at least one set in each of his last three matches means Medvedev should win a set, but the best value lies with Alcaraz winning in four.
Pick: Alcaraz to Win in Four Sets (+245)
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