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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Odds & Game Pick

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The Saints and Panthers meet this week in a game that could all but clinch the NFC South for the Saints. The Saints are 8-2 while the Panthers are 5-5, and though this is the first meeting between the teams, if the Saints win, the Panthers would essentially need to win out in order to win the division.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Saints -7; O/U 48.5. The line has shifted more than a point toward the Saints and the under.
  • Current Line: Saints -8.5
  • O/U: 47
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: December 30, 2018 – The Panthers defeated the Saints 33-14 in New Orleans.

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Panthers at Saints >>

Overview

The Panthers season is slipping away. Before their bye week they rattled off four straight wins, but since the bye, they have lost three out of four and covered the spread in only one of those matchups. During their four-game winning streak, quarterback Kyle Allen threw zero interceptions, but in the last four weeks, he has thrown nine. That’s the worst mark in the league, putting him one interception ahead of the Buccaneers’ Jameis Winston who has eight in that span.

While the offense has been struggling, the defense hasn’t done much to help the cause. They’ve given up 20+ points in the last four games, including 29 to the Falcons last week. They’ve allowed opponents to rush for 142.5 yards per game in that four-game span, which could point to a big day from Alvin Kamara this week. If there is one place where the Panthers’ defense has a decided advantage it is in the trenches against the Saints’ offensive line. The Panthers are tied for first in the league with 39 sacks, and while the Saints have only allowed 19 sacks all season, seven of those have come in the last two weeks.

The Saints’ offense rebounded nicely last week against Tampa Bay, after struggling greatly against the Falcons the week before. They put up 34 points against the Bucs and the defense didn’t let them back within two scores after the offense jumped out to a 13-0 lead. The Saints are fourth in the league in turnover differential at +8. Drew Brees has thrown only three interceptions all season, and just one of those has come since returning from injury.

The defense ranks third in the league in rushing yards against, which could bode very well for controlling the damage that Christian McCaffrey is able to do this week. It’s likely the Panthers will try to utilize McCaffrey in the passing game, but without many weapons on the outside, and with Kyle Allen suddenly turning the ball over at an alarming rate, the Saints should be able to focus on McCaffrey and force then Panthers to beat them elsewhere.

Trends

  • The Panthers are 5-5 ATS this season.
  • The Saints are 7-3 ATS this season.
  • The Saints are 3-2 ATS at home this season.
  • The Panthers are 3-2 ATS on the road this season.
  • The over has hit in six of the Panthers’ ten games this season.
  • The over and under have both hit five times this season for the Saints.
  • The over has hit in four of the last five meetings between the teams.

Prop Bet

Panthers under 17.5 points (-110)
While I expect the Saints to blow out the Panthers, I could see the desperate Panthers’ defense keeping Carolina in this game. This game could end up being a defensive struggle, but I don’t see any situation where it’s a shootout, especially with how Kyle Allen has played recently. Christian McCaffrey had nearly 200 yards of total offense last week and yet Carolina scored only three points. Something very similar could happen this week. The Panthers would need multiple big plays and maybe even a defensive or special teams touchdown to go over this number.

Bottom Line

The Panthers have been bad ATS lately, going just 1-3 in their last four games. They’ve been a sharp bet week after week but continue to fail to cover. They got blown out by the 49ers, couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone late against Green Bay and were absolutely embarrassed by Atlanta last week. The Saints were destroyed by the Falcons two weeks ago but bounced back nicely against the Bucs last week. Kyle Allen is starting to play sloppy, throwing four interceptions last week, and will be facing off against a Saints’ defense that has forced 14 turnovers this season. The Saints got their wake up call two weeks ago and have the talent to rebound. The Panthers only have Christian McCaffrey.

Pick: Saints -8.5 (-110)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 12

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5)
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Detroit Lions at Washington (+3.5)
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (+3)
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6)
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)

Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.