The 7-3 Buffalo Bills are set to take on the 3-7 Denver Broncos. Josh Allen versus Brandon Allen is not exactly going to get anyone’s juices flowing, but this contest still has its appeal. Both teams have exciting young runners in their backfields and came into the season with what many thought were two of the best defenses in the AFC. Despite the Broncos already being out of the hunt, the Bills will be playing to all but secure a playoff berth. A win against the Broncos will put them at 8-3 with the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers still on the schedule.
- Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -5.5 on the Buffalo Bills. The consensus over/under total opened at 36.5 points. The point spread has seen significant sharp action on Denver at +5.5, causing the line to drop all the way to +3.5. The over/under total has increased to 37.5.
- Current Line: Buffalo -3.5
- O/U: 37.5
- Location: New Era Field, Orchard Park, New York
- Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, November 24th
- Last Meeting: Buffalo defeated Denver 26-16 – September 24, 2017
The Denver Broncos continue their trend of disappointing seasons under John Elway. Content to settle on Joe Flacco as a veteran stopgap, the Broncos predictably offered one of the worst aerial threats in the league. This was despite having weapons like Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and two versatile running backs in Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Bradley Chubb was lost for the season, and the Broncos, possibly looking to do a little depth tanking of their own, traded star receiver Emmanuel Sanders to the San Francisco 49ers. Not five days later, starting quarterback Joe Flacco would call out the coaching staff for not being aggressive enough, and playing “not to lose.” After his remarks, Flacco would suddenly pop up on the injury report and be placed on season-ending injured reserve. The Broncos are now starting a quarterback named Brandon Allen while taking things careful with rookie quarterback Drew Lock. Lock could very well be the future of the franchise under center, but the team seems content to let him redshirt his rookie season. While Brandon Allen has kept the team competitive in his two starts, he has a very tough schedule to contend with to close the season. The Broncos could very well end up with a 3-13 record and a shot at Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Burrow, or Justin Herbert.
As the Buffalo Bills have done for years, they are riding the hot play of their defense. Josh Allen has made some improvements as a sophomore, and while he still has a way to go before he becomes someone they can trust under center, he has found a way to help the Bills win games. He has not yet reached the stage where he can carry the Bills to wins, but that is the hopeful next step in his development. The Bills have upgraded the weapons around Allen in his second year despite releasing long-time starting running back LeSean McCoy. They added an exciting rookie running back in Devin Singletary, and they added two reliable receivers in John Brown and Cole Beasley. If the Bills can win this game, they have the schedule to reach the double-digit win mark, a threshold that should all but assure them a wildcard spot in the AFC.
- Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests against Denver.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams.
- Over is 5-2 in the last seven contests between these two teams.
- Denver is 6-4 ATS on the season.
- Denver is 3-2 ATS on the road this season.
- Buffalo is 6-3 ATS on the season.
- Buffalo is 2-3 ATS at home this season.
- Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests.
- Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with a winning home record.
- Denver is 4-0 ATS in their last four November contests.
- Denver is 4-1 in their last five contests against the AFC.
- Buffalo is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 contests.
- Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five November contests.
- Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home contests against teams with a losing road record.
- Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up win.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Denver’s last 10 road contests.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Denver’s last 11 contests against teams with winning records.
- Under is 8-3 in Denver’s last 11 contests following a straight-up loss.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Denver’s last 11 contests following a win ATS.
- Under is 5-2 in Denver’s last seven November contests.
- Under is 7-3 in Buffalo’s last 10 contests.
- Under is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven contests against the AFC.
- Under is 5-1 in Buffalo’s last six contests following a win ATS.
- Under is 7-2 in Buffalo’s last nine contests following a straight-up win.
- Over is 8-3 in Buffalo’s last 11 November contests.
Devin Singletary over 50 rushing yards (-238)
Devin Singletary comes into this weekend’s contest averaging a robust 6.1 yards per carry on the season. He has cleared 50 rushing yards in two of his last three contests, a time frame he is averaging 70.66 yards per game on the ground. While he is functioning as the team’s lead back, he will still likely need volume or a big run to clear this number against a Broncos defense that surrenders just 3.72 yards per carry. Singletary is one of the best at forcing missed tackles in his rookie class, and is one of the top running backs in the league in broken tackle percentage according to Sports Info Solutions, coming in at 19 percent. His ability to break tackles will be critical to him reaching the posted total. The juice on this prop is high, but with PointsBet being an over only, choose your line book, win probability and bankroll building trump chasing plus money with a much lower win probability.
Phillip Lindsay over 50 rushing yards (-286)
Phillip Lindsay has cleared 50 rushing yards in seven of his last eight contests. After outplaying Royce Freeman for much of the year, he is now officially the lead back and saw 65 percent of the snaps in Week 11. -286 may feel like a baseball line, but sometimes that is how you have to treat player props. The heavy juice reflects the high win probability. We could go to 75 yards at even money, but the win probability drops drastically. Instead, lay one unit for a partial unit return and collect your winnings.
The two-point swing from the opening spread to the current consensus point spread ensures that there is now some value on the Buffalo Bills. Moneyline is obviously the safer play, but since we are already eating juice on our player prop plays, we will take some spread action for the full game. Brandon Allen is going to have a tough time navigating the Bills’ secondary, and he is likely to have his worst game as a pro against the best group of defensive backs he has faced to date. The spread of -3.5 is much more appetizing than the opening line of -5.5. The Bills have struggled against the spread at home this season, but the sharps and early bettors accounted for that and pushed this line down to where it now sits. An alternative point spread play of -3 at -145 has much more appeal, but it may not be worth the excess juice when we can get -3.5 at -110 at FanDuel or PointsBet as opposed to the -120 it sits at elsewhere. Tap the Bills as a one-unit play in what should be an easy home victory.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-110)
Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 12
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5)
Detroit Lions at Washington (+3.5)
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (+3)
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6)
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)