There are only three games on tonight’s MLB slate. There’s not much to choose from, but we’ll work with what we’ve got. Here are my top three MLB home run props for tonight.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Josh Smith (+830)
If you’ve been following along, you know I’ve bet on Josh Smith to launch one a few times now. We’ve come up short, but with not a ton of options available, he’s still got some of the best potential tonight.
Smith has hit a .385 ISO and a wOBA of .412 against his last 34 righties. Meanwhile, he’ll take on Shane Baz of the Orioles, who has allowed a .194 ISO and a wOBA of .374 to his last 83 lefties.
Baz continues to fall behind in counts against lefties. He’s also added just 14.5% of strikeouts, while allowing a 10.7% barrel percentage to lefties.
Smith has crushed righties over the last month. Let’s see if he can knock one out tonight.
Kody Clemens (+420)
Kody Clemens has added a .321 ISO and a wOBA of .407 against his last 65 righties. The left-handed power slugger has hit 43.2% of fly balls with 61.4% of hard contact. Additionally, he’s earned a 15.9% barrel percentage against righties.
He’ll battle Blade Tidwell of the Giants, who has really struggled against lefties lately. His last 62 lefties faced have hit a .260 ISO and a wOBA of .372. In fact, Tidwell has given up a 15.4% barrel percentage to lefties and has walked 14.5% of southpaws. Clemens should get hitters’ counts.
Tidwell has ultimately struggled against lefties all season long, but the power has been even worse in the last 30 days. Let’s try Clemens at +420.
Brooks Lee (+680)
Let’s keep attacking Blade Tidwell.
Brooks Lee is a switch-hitter who will bat from the left side against Tidwell. Lee has hit a .232 ISO and a wOBA of .354 with only 11% of strikeouts against righties in the last 30 days. He’s also walked less than 3% of the time. Lee is up there to swing away and put the ball in play.
Beyond that, Lee has added 38.7% of fly balls against righties, while earning 54.8% of hard contact.
Lee has also hit an 8.1% barrel percentage against righties.
Tidwell has escaped a lot against lefties in the last month, giving up a .200 BABIP to his last 62 lefties. But if the analytics continue to stay high in other areas, he’s going to be in trouble. Take Leee at +680 to hit one out.
