There are only two games tonight - Atlanta versus New York and Dallas versus Phoenix. Below, I explain why both home teams are being undervalued and why I expect the Wings and Mercury to find themselves in a defensive struggle. Here are the best WNBA picks for Monday, September 21st.
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Monday's Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty
The Liberty and Dream haven't met since the Liberty won 114-90 in Atlanta in early June. This time, the teams will meet in New York, and the Dream being favored on the road seems like a major overreaction to their two performances since the WNBA returned from break.
The Dream have won each of their last two games by at least 25 points. However, those two performances came against the Sun and the Sky, who are the second- and fourth-worst teams in the league, respectively. Meanwhile, the Liberty have won back-to-back home games, including a 12-point win over the Lynx.
The Dream have won five consecutive road games, but four of those contests were against teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention. Additionally, the Liberty average 10.3 made three-pointers per game. This will be the difference as New York shoots over a Dream defense ranked third-worst in opponent three-point rate.
Pick: Liberty Moneyline (+102)
Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury
These two teams just played on Saturday, with the Wings escaping with an 87-82 win. While that game featured 169 points, I'm surprised to see this total listed higher than 170. After all, the first meeting between these two featured just 155 combined points.
The Wings are averaging 89.1 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. And while they've scored at least 91 points in five of their last six games, the Mercury's defense has been a bit of a problem for them this season. The reason is that the Wings aren't a high-volume three-point shooting team, so they can't exploit the Mercury's main defensive weakness. The Mercury have the worst three-point defense in the league.
With the Wings sporting the fifth-best defense in the league, and holding six of their last seven opponents to 82 points or fewer, I don't see how the league's 11th-best offense scores enough to push this over the projected total.
Pick: Under 171.5 Points (-105)
Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury
With just 2:26 remaining in Saturday's game, the Wings led by just one point. Their largest lead in the game was nine points, and it occurred in Dallas. Tonight's contest will be played in Phoenix, giving the Mercury home-court advantage. Still, oddsmakers are reluctant to give the Mercury too much of a chance tonight.
That said, the Wings are just 10-10 in road games this season, having lost their last five away games. Their last three road losses were by at least eight points, with two of those defeats coming by double digits.
If there weren't 11 games separating these two teams in the standings, this spread would be much smaller. But the Wings' current six-game winning streak means nothing entering tonight. This is a team that hasn't traveled well. Until they prove they can compete on the road, I'll always take their opponents, especially when they're underdogs.
Pick: Mercury +6.5 (-115)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.