After a wild and exciting Wednesday in the NBA, we’re left with just two games today. Still, there’s plenty of value on the board. Check out the market-based +EV NBA picks I’ve added for today’s slate.
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Thursday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Will Richard Under 2.5 Rebounds (+110 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -116
- Market EV: +13%
Will Richard has earned just 3.8 rebound chances per game over the last five games. He’s also averaged around 18 minutes per game and has a 7.6% usage rate. He’s not incredibly active on either end of the floor.
Meanwhile, his under 2.5 rebounds line is +110 at Fanatics Sportsbook. The fair value is -116, giving this a 13% market EV. Richard already has two zero-rebound games this season. It could be another day like that against the Miami Heat.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 29.5 Points (+127 at Polymarket)
- Fair Value: +102
- Market EV: +12%
Giannis Antetokounmpo has found his footing with Miami, even if the rest of the team hasn’t. He’s scored at least 27 points in four of his last five games, including 30+ points in two of those five games. He’s averaged more than 19 field-goal attempts per game over this five-game stretch and will face a Warriors team ranked 19th in points allowed to power forwards this season.
The Warriors also rank 28th in transition defense. If the Heat can get long rebounds or force turnovers, Antetokounmpo will score points easily at the rim.
You can hit this bet at +127 at Polymarket while the fair value is +102. You can’t go wrong with a 12% positive-expected-value play.
Franz Wagner Over 6.5 Assists (+127 at Polymarket)
- Fair Value: +107
- Market EV: +9%
Franz Wagner has stepped up with Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs out. He’s dished out at least nine assists in three of his last five games, including multiple games with 11+ assists. In his last five gams, Wagner has averaged nearly 15 potential assists per game, along with 8.6 assists per game. The Magic are running the offense through their best player.
The Suns rank 21st in assists allowed to power forwards this season and most recently allowed Georges Niang, Yaxel Lendeborg, Aaron Gordon and Jaylin Williams to hit their assist overs.
Consider grabbing Wagner to go over 6.5 assists at +127 on Polymarket. The market EV for this play is 9%, with a fair value of +107.
