Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds and Game Pick (2020)
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the availability of a number of key players in the Week 12 matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings. Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater likely had this game circled on his calendar at the beginning of the season in anticipation of getting to face the team that drafted him. In addition, running back Christian McCaffrey got in a limited practice on Wednesday and his status leading up to Sunday will have to be monitored.
On Minnesota’s side, wide receiver Adam Thielen was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list early in the week. He can be cleared to play if he has multiple negative tests throughout the week. Given all this uncertainty, are the Vikings the early value or should we get a jump on betting on Carolina if the band is indeed “back together†as Ian Rapoport suggests?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Vikings -4; O/U 48.5
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: December 10, 2017 – Panthers 31, Vikings 24
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CAR
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+3.5
-110
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o51.5
-110
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+170
|
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MIN
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-3.5
-110
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u51.5
-110
|
-195
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Overview
The Carolina Panthers are coming off what was arguably their most impressive win of the season last week. Mired in a five game losing streak and playing without Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers pitched a 20-0 shutout of the Detroit Lions. That loss was the only shutout loss of Matthew Stafford’s entire NFL career. If Bridgewater cannot go this week, ex-XFL star P.J. Walker showed he has full command of this offense. Walker was 24-for-34 passing for 258 yards against the Lions, and the final score could have been worse if not for Walker’s two red-zone interceptions. The Panthers continue to employ a “bend but don’t break†defensive philosophy as they are 18th in total defense but rank in the top half of the league with just 24.7 PPG allowed.
The Minnesota Vikings took a huge hit to their playoff chances with a surprising 31-28 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week. At 4-6, they enter this week two games behind the Arizona Cardinals for the seventh and final playoff spot. The loss to the Cowboys put an end to Minnesota’s three-game winning streak that saw them beat each of their divisional rivals in succession. The Vikings dominated the Cowboys statistically as they outgained them 430-376 while utilizing a balanced offense that threw for more than 300 yards and rushed for more than 100. However, two turnovers and eight penalties proved costly, and Minnesota allowed 5.8 YPC.
Trends
- The over is 6-0 in Minnesota’s last six home games.
- The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.
- Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.
Prop Bet (odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Pick: Even Total Points (+105)
A wager like this cannot be perceived as skill or reasoned using any analytics. However, the fact of the matter is that both of these teams’ final scores have ended in an even number of total points in three of their last four games. With not a lot of other props available early in the week as oddsmakers await clarity on the injury front, getting plus money on what is essentially a “coin-flip†bet is enticing.
Bottom Line
The Vikings-Cowboys game last week was a very physical and hard-hitting game. At one point, running back Dalvin Cook needed to have his facemask repaired after a vicious hit at the goal line by Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. That hit is not the only thing Cook will feel this week, as he had 32 total touches last week and at least 24 total touches in four straight games. Eventually, that usage will start to wear on Cook, and the Vikings will have to be smarter with using other backs like Alexander Mattison as a change of pace.
Per David Newton of ESPN, Teddy Bridgewater was medically cleared last week, but head coach Matt Rhule sat him in what he called the “hardest individual decision I’ve had to make in terms of game day.†Based on that information and the fact that Bridgewater is back at practice this week, it looks optimistic that he will return to action on Sunday. Thus, if the current four-point spread does not already factor in the chance that Bridgewater will suit up, bettors are getting great value in this line.
Regardless of the injury status of Carolina’s two best offensive players, one had to walk away impressed from their defense last week. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was under constant pressure from Brian Burns and the rest of the Panthers’ defense. They forced two three-and-outs and held Detroit to just ten first downs. They allowed more than one first down on just two drives the entire game, and both of those came when the game was already salted away. Look for the Panthers to trust their solid secondary in coverage against Minnesota’s receivers, and elect to stack the box against Dalvin Cook. Carolina has been great as underdogs this season, and that trend will continue this week.
Pick: Panthers +3.5, Under 51.5
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.