Champions League Matchday 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
The Champions League is back in action after a three-week hiatus, and we have several heavyweight matchups on the schedule. Most notably, a 2023-24 UCL title rematch between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund headlines the slate. Below I'll dive into that match and two others from a sports betting perspective, and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch.
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Champions League Matchday 3 Preview & Best Bets (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Real Madrid (-235) vs. Borussia Dortmund (+550), DRAW (+425) | O/U 3.5 (+105/-130)
The reigning champions faltered in their matchday two appearance, losing outright in a 1-0 tie with Lille. The defeat pushed them to 1-0-1 (3 points) in the Champions League, and they'll be looking to bounce back against a 2-0-0 (6 points) Dortmund club on Tuesday. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain.
We've become accustomed to Los Blancos dominating teams both domestically and on the continental stage. However, this team hasn't really found its footing just yet in 2024-25. They're a solid 7-3-0 in La Liga, but the destruction of inferior competition hasn't been there. In their last five matches across all competitions, Carlo Ancelotti's men are 3-1-1, posting only one multi-goal victory.
Being that this is a pretty big step up in competition, I'm looking to fade Real Madrid in some capacity. I'll back Borussia Dortmund getting a full goal at plus-money. The BVB have been decimating their opposition during this UCL term, out-scoring them 10-1 (W: 3-0 at Club Brugge; W: 7-1 vs. Celtic). Furthermore, of their 10 matches across all competitions, Dortmund has only suffered one defeat by more than one goal (L: 5-1 at Stuttgart). Nuri Sahin's men should be able to at least keep this game within one goal, but I think they're live to draw, or maybe even pull off an outright road victory.
Bet: Dortmund +1.0 (+120)
Stade Brest (+500) vs. Bayer Leverkusen (+370), DRAW (-200) | O/U 2.5 (-170/+135)
We have a pair of early matches on Wednesday, one of which pits a couple of undefeated clubs against each other, as Bayer Leverkusen (2-0-0, 6 points) takes on Stade Brest (2-0-0, 6 points). This contest kicks off at 12:45 p.m. ET from Stade Municipal de Roudourou in Guingamp, France.
Rather than lay the juice with the over at 2.5 goals, I'm going to bump this total up to 3.0 goals and play the over. Leverkusen has played 11 competitive matches this year, and they've seen at least three goals in eight of those games. Seven of them have cleared this threshold and featured at least four goals. The German club's offense has been excellent, as they're ranked eighth in goals scored (5) in the UCL, while sitting at a respectable 15th in xG (3.5) this term.
As for Brest, they're a perfect 2-0-0 during Champions League play, but they've gone just 3-1-4 in eight Ligue 1 competitions. However, on the continental front, the French side has netted six goals (3rd) while posting an xG score of 4.1 (8th). I think we'll at least get a 2-1 victory for the visitors, but in my opinion, the ceiling for goals could be much higher. As I said, Leverkusen is clicking offensively, so I could see them pouring it on this mid-tier opponent.
Bet: Over 3.0 (-115)
Barcelona (+130) vs. Bayern Munich (+175), DRAW (+295) | O/U 3.5 (-115/-110)
The marquee match on Wednesday afternoon features a clash of two juggernauts, as Barcelona hosts Bayern Munich in Spain. Both sides are out to 1-0-1 (3 points) starts, with Barca losing 2-1 to AS Monaco in their opener, while the Germans were edged out in a 1-0 road contest with Aston Villa on matchday two. Kickoff is slated for 3:00 p.m. ET from Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys in Barcelona, Spain.
There are some familiar faces in this match, as long-time Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski will face his old club. Also, Hansi Flick, who coached Bayern to a continental treble in 2019-20, is now at the helm for the Spanish side. Flick is off to an electric start with his new club, managing them to a 10-0-2 start across all competitions. The aforementioned Lewandowski has netted a La Liga-leading 12 goals, and the team's offense ranks first in both goals scored (33) and xG (26.5).
Meanwhile, I think the best word to describe this year's Bayern Munich team is inconsistent. They've had some majestic blowout wins, but they've also suffered a couple of letdown performances in the early going. This is another tough road spot for a somewhat inexperienced coach in Vincent Kompany, so I'm going to fade the German giant in this spot. I'll take a flier on Barcelona to secure the three points in front of their home crowd.
Bet: Barcelona Moneyline (+130)