Champions League Matchday 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
We're onto matchday four of the 2024-25 Champions League campaign, which means we'll be halfway through the "league phase" when play wraps up on Wednesday afternoon. Below I've listed my three favorite bets across Europe for this midweek action on the pitch.
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Champions League Matchday 4 Best Bets (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bologna (+180) vs. Monaco (+155), DRAW (+235) | O/U 2.5 (-110/-115)
Tuesday's nine-match slate concludes with an intriguing contest between Italy's Bologna (0-1-2) and France's Monaco (2-1-0). Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Renato Dall’Ara in Bologna, Italy.
It has been a serious struggle for Bologna offensively this UCL term, as they have yet to score a goal over their winless three-match stretch. They drew 0-0 against Shakhtar Donetsk in their opener, before losing 2-0 on the road to both Liverpool and Aston Villa. All three of these matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, and I'm going to bet this trend continues here - give me the Under.
The low-scoring matches aren't just a feature of their continental play, as the Italian side has seen six of its 10 Serie A matches stay below 2.5 goals. This is very much a defense-first organization, which is exemplified by the fact that they own the 12th-best xGA (3.3) in the Champions League. As for Monaco, they've been sound defensively, logging an xGA mark of 2.4 during the UCL season (seventh). Neither of these offenses has been much to write home about, and with Bologna having a home-field advantage, they should be able to implement their defensive, low-scoring style in this match.
Bet: Under 2.5 Total Goals (-115)
Club Brugge (+235) vs. Aston Villa (+115), DRAW (+260) | O/U 2.5 (-125/+100)
Wednesday's nine-game schedule opens up with a pair of early matches, one of which pits Club Brugge (1-0-2) against undefeated Aston Villa (3-0-0). This contest kicks off at 12:45 p.m. ET from Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge, Belgium.
The Villans have looked very impressive to start the UCL campaign, going 3-0 against Young Boys (3-0), Bayern Munich (1-0), and Bologna (2-0). As you'll notice, goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has logged clean sheets in all three matches. From an xGA standpoint, the English side is ninth in the Champions League with a mark of 3.0.
As for Club Brugge, they've struggled to drum up offense this term, scoring only twice throughout their 1-0-2 start. Their xG is a measly 2.5 goals, which is 31st out of 36 competing clubs. Being that the Belgian side hasn't been dialed in offensively and Aston Villa is playing well on the defensive side of the pitch, I think it's worth a flier on the plus-money payout that comes with Aston Villa. They're averaging 2.0 goals per game this UCL season, and I expect them to pull out a 2-0 or 2-1 victory in this spot.
Bet: Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)
Shakhtar Donetsk (+100) vs. Young Boys (+255), DRAW (+270) | O/U 2.5 (-145/+115)
The other early match on Wednesday features a clash between Ukraine's Shakhtar Donetsk (0-1-2) and Switzerland's Young Boys (0-0-3). This contest gets underway at 12:45 p.m. ET from VELTINS-Arena in Gelsenkirchen, Germany.
Personally, I don't believe that the Ukrainian side is as bad as their 0-1-2 record suggests. They've had a few tough matches out of the gate, losing to Atalanta (3-0) and Arsenal (1-0), while also drawing against Bologna (0-0) in their opener. Young Boys, on the other hand, have not been sharp on either the domestic or continental fronts. They're 0-0-3 in the UCL, while also logging an underwhelming 3-4-6 record in the Swiss Super League back home.
I'll back Shakhtar to get off the schneid and break into the win column at +100. Even though they've yet to score a goal this term, this will be a great breakout spot for the Miners' offense. They'll host a Young Boys side that's 34th in xGA (8.7) and 33rd in actual goals conceded (nine). Give me Shakhtar Donetsk on the moneyline to round out matchday four.
Bet: Shakhtar Donetsk Moneyline (+100)