Champions League Picks & Predictions: Semifinals (Leg 1)
Trophies are up for grabs at this time of year, from domestic leagues to countries' annual knockout tournaments. But nothing compares to your favorite club lifting the UEFA Champions League (UCL) trophy and being crowned the Kings of Europe. We're down to the final four teams in this year's Champions League tournament. Below, I'll dive into each semifinal matchup from a betting perspective, laying out my favorite wagers for the contests. Here are my top Champions League picks and predictions for Leg 1 of the semifinals.
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Champions League Picks & Predictions: Semifinals (Leg 1)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Paris Saint-Germain (+135) vs. Bayern Munich (+175), DRAW (+290) | O/U 3.5 (-110/-115)
It was an instant classic in Germany two weeks ago when Bayern Munich fended off Real Madrid, winning their aggregate 6-4. Up next, they'll take on reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), who cruised past England's Liverpool in a 4-0 aggregate. Bayern's a slim -135 favorite to advance, while the champs currently sit at +110. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Parc des Princes in Paris, France.
I'm never rushing to the window to bet an under in a Bayern Munich match, but this feels like a great spot to do so at an elevated number. For starters, we saw these teams meet in Paris during the League Phase in November, and the Bavarians prevailed 2-1. They've now topped PSG five consecutive times in UCL play, and all five of those matches have featured three goals or fewer. Bayern Munich has blanked the French club in four of those five games.
These have been two of the best defensive teams in the Champions League this season. Bayern ranks third in goals allowed per 90 minutes (1.08), while Paris Saint-Germain is fifth (1.21). The Parisians have also been in elite defensive form, posting clean sheets in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. Bayern Munich can score in droves, but I think with both defenses playing so well, it's worth a flier on the under at an inflated number.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals (-115)
Atletico Madrid (+185) vs. Arsenal (+155), DRAW (+225) | O/U 2.5 (+120/-155)
They didn't make it easy on themselves, but Atletico Madrid managed to knock off Barcelona in a 3-2 aggregate to punch its ticket to the semifinals. They'll battle Arsenal this round. The London-based club shut down Sporting CP 1-0 in their two-leg battle in the quarterfinals. This match gets underway on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid, Spain.
I'm not surprised to see Arsenal as a favorite in this match, albeit by the skin of their teeth. Still, at plus-money, I think it's worth backing the Gunners to emerge with a road win in the opening leg. Mikel Arteta's men have been nearly perfect this Champions League campaign, going an unbeaten 10-2-0. The defense remains masterful, with eight of those 12 matches resulting in clean sheets.
On the other hand, well, Atletico Madrid isn't in solid form. In all competitions, they're 2-1-6 across their last nine outings. Additionally, we've already seen Arsenal smash Atletico 4-0 this term, although that match was in London. Still, just a one-goal deficit against Arsenal can feel insurmountable, and with Atletico Madrid's defense in shambles - allowing 2.1 goals per match across the aforementioned nine-game sample - the hosts could have a tough time finding a result here. I like the +155 play on Arsenal in this spot.
Bet: Arsenal Moneyline (+155)