Champions League Round of 16 (Leg 1) Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
Just like that, we're down to the final 16 teams of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League (UCL). Action resumes today. I'll dive into my three favorite Champions League bets over the next couple of days.
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Champions League Round of 16 (Leg 1) Preview & Best Bets (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dortmund (-155) vs. Lille (+425), DRAW (+300) | O/U 2.5 (-130/+100)
Lille is back in action after earning a bye to the Round of 16, where they're set to take on a Dortmund side that defeated Sporting CP (3-0) last round. This first-leg competition is set for Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, Germany.
Being that Dortmund is playing at home and in great form, I don't mind laying the juice with them in this spot. They've played two Bundesliga matches since last month's 0-0 second-leg draw against Sporting CP, going 2-0-0 and out-scoring their competition 8-0. They've found plenty of offensive success during this UCL term, averaging 2.5 goals per game during the 10-game sample size.
Meanwhile, Lille just played in a marquee Ligue 1 match against Paris Saint-Germain last time out. They were slaughtered on the road in a 4-1 affair. During the League Phase, the French side posted a +7 goal differential (17:10), but their expected goals (xG) told a different story.
Lille logged an xG mark of just 9.5 while adding an expected goals against (xGA) of 13.5. I'm not sure Lille's ready for this big-time road matchup against a Dortmund squad that's been heating up. I'll take the home team on the Moneyline.
Bet: Dortmund Moneyline (-155)
Feyenoord (+475) vs. Internazionale (-185), DRAW (+340) | O/U 2.5 (-135/+105)
Wednesday's four-match slate opens up with a fun contest between Netherlands' Feyenoord and Italy's Internazionale. The Dutch side just bested AC Milan (2-1) last round, while visiting Inter was idle courtesy of a 6-1-1 League Phase record. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET from Stadion Feijenoord in Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Even though Inter goalkeeper Yann Sommer (hand) is sidelined and will miss this match, I'm still going to play the under with a plus-money payout. The Italian side's defense continues to be impenetrable, as they've allowed only four goals in their last five domestic matches. During the League Phase, Inter was the best defense in terms of goals against (one), while ranking fourth in xGA (7.3). Yes, you read that currently, they only gave up one goal across eight League Phase contests.
On the flip side, Feyenoord can score. However, they just brought in a new manager (Robin van Persie). I'm a bit skeptical to see if the Dutch side can run up the goals under new management. In terms of recent form, they've scored just three total goals across their last four matches in all competitions. This feels like a match where a 1-1 final score is the ceiling. I'll play the under.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (+105)
Paris Saint-Germain (+135) vs. Liverpool (+180), DRAW (+270) | O/U 3.5 (+125/-160)
The marquee match on Wednesday comes in the capital city of France, where Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) is set to host Liverpool. PSG decimated Brest 10-0 last round, punching their ticket to face a Liverpool squad that went 7-0-1 in the League Phase, earning a bye. This match gets underway at 3:00 p.m. ET from Parc des Princes in Paris, France.
This Liverpool team is on a tear right now. They're coasting to a Premier League title back home, and they also cruised through the League Phase on the continental stage over the last few months. Furthermore, the Reds had this past weekend off since the FA Cup was taking place in England, so they're well-rested entering this clash of the titans. Being that this is the case, I think it's worth sprinkling on Liverpool to win the first leg outright.
I don't have much anti-PSG data because the truth is they've been heating up and playing well. The French side is just running into an opponent that allowed only five goals during the League Phase while ranking third in xGA (7.1). Liverpool has loads of talent in each third of the pitch. I can’t pass up on playing them with a nearly 2/1 payout.
Bet: Liverpool Moneyline (+180)