Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints Odds and Game Pick (2021)
This weekend’s game between the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints is one of four Wild Card matchups that is a rematch of a game played in the regular season. In Week 8, the Saints beat the Bears in Chicago 26-23 in overtime. That was the second of six consecutive losses by the Bears, who defied the odds and clawed their way back to the playoffs after falling to 5-7. One significant difference between the first meeting to now is that Mitchell Trubisky was re-inserted as the Bears quarterback, while Nick Foles was under center in the loss to the Saints. Can the Bears avenge their loss to the Saints, or will New Orleans beat Chicago for the seventh consecutive time?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Saints -9; O/U 48
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
- Start Time: 4:40 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: November 1, 2020 – Saints 26, Bears 23 OT
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CHI
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+10
-112
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o47.5
-107
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+400
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NO
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-10
-109
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u47.5 -114
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-500
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View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Bears vs. Saints >>
Overview
The Chicago Bears won three of their last four games to end the regular season. They were humbled in a 19-point loss in the regular-season finale but still earned a playoff berth via the Rams’ win over the Cardinals. One of the biggest reasons for Chicago’s ascent from 5-7 to a playoff berth was the improved play of Mitchell Trubisky. Though he went just 3-3 as a starter after taking over for Nick Foles, Chicago’s offense was markedly improved with Trubisky under center. The Bears averaged 30.2 PPG over the final six weeks after scoring 30+ points once in their first ten games. Trubisky was aided by a running game with David Montgomery that was much more explosive down the stretch. Montgomery averaged better than four yards per carry in five of the final six games and scored eight total touchdowns in that span. Montgomery’s 142.5 yards from scrimmage are the third-most among running backs over the past four weeks, and another big game from him is vital for Chicago’s chances to pull the upset.
The New Orleans Saints weathered the storm of Drew Brees’s four-game absence and still had an outside chance of earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed entering the last week of the regular season. More so than ever before, the Saints’ offensive success can be credited to their running backs and is less about Drew Brees’s arm. Saints running backs averaged 5.7 yards from scrimmage per touch this season, which was tops in the NFL. Meanwhile, Brees’s 245.2 YPG was his lowest since 2005, and his 70.5% completion percentage was his lowest in the last four seasons. However, this may be the most talented defense Brees has ever had in New Orleans. They finished the regular season ranked fourth in total defense and fifth in points per game allowed. The defense was particularly stingy against the pass, as their 60% completion percentage allowed ranked second-best in the league.
Trends
- The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the Saints’ last eight playoff games.
- The Saints are 6-0 SU in their last six games against the Bears.
- The under is 4-0 in New Orleans’s last four games played in January.
Bottom Line
Of all 12 playoff teams, no one had a worse winning percentage against other playoff teams than the Chicago Bears. Chicago went 1-6 against playoff teams this season, while New Orleans won three of the five games they played against playoff competition. Whereas the Bears backdoored their way into the playoffs, I will take the team that looked like a Super Bowl contender all season.
Do not read too much into the fact that Chicago took New Orleans to overtime in their first matchup, as both coaches will make several adjustments this week. For starters, this game will be played in the Superdome, where Drew Brees is more comfortable than outdoors. Also, I do not see Sean Payton calling 41 pass attempts for Brees in this game. Alvin Kamara was fed 12 carries in their first matchup though he averaged 5.6 YPC. Kamara still needs to be cleared to play this week as he is scheduled to come off the reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday, but keep in mind he is coming off a six-touchdown performance against the Vikings in his last game played.
Chicago did all they needed to do to earn the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC, but the way they finished the season was not at all impressive. Their three wins from Weeks 14-16 were against teams with a combined 12 wins. Yet when they stepped up in class and faced the Packers at home in a “win and in†situation, they were utterly outclassed. The Packers averaged 7.2 yards per play and held Chicago to 3.5 YPC. Green Bay is not known for their stout run defense, so one should expect New Orleans to have similar success given that they were the fourth-best run defense all year.
The Bears will need many long and methodical drives to keep the Saints offense off the field. However, Chicago’s offense had a 31% third-down conversion rate over the second half of the season. That is the second-worst rate in the league, and not being able to keep drives going on third down will spell doom for Chicago in this game.
New Orleans has seen their playoffs end at home each of the past three seasons. Knowing that this could be their last realistic chance to win a Super Bowl with Drew Brees under center should provide all the motivation they need to avoid another early upset. Ten points is a lot to lay in a playoff game, but New Orleans’s defense will force Chicago to abandon the run early, and the Saints will coast to a comfortable victory.
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