Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick
The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots are the class of the NFL. As for the Cleveland Browns…we still don’t know what to make of them. After an offseason in which they were hyped as a legitimate playoff contender, the Browns are what their record indicates, 2-4. They’re fresh off a bye week with a chance to change the course of their season, but the fact that wide receiver Jarvis Landry came out and guaranteed a win suggests this team hasn’t grown much in the off week.
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Details
- Opening Line: New England -11
- Current Line: New England -13 at PointsBet
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Start Time: 4:25 PM ET
- Last Meeting: Patriots 33 at Browns 13 (10/9/16)
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Overview
The Browns are truly a desperate team heading into this Week 8 matchup. Cleveland, which is 2.5 games back of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, simply can’t afford to fall to 2-5. The bad news for the Browns is that New England is 59-3 straight up in home games against AFC opponents dating back to 2009.
The key for the Browns will be to get their offense going, but the Patriots lead the NFL with an average of 6.9 points per game allowed this season. New England also leads the league with an average of 31.9 points per game and just added Mohamed Sanu from the Atlanta Falcons via trade. While it will take some time for Sanu to get up to speed, there is no doubt that he will provide an immediate upgrade for the Patriots’ wide receiving corps. Tom Brady has produced a passer rating over 100 in three of his last four games at home, and he should have another strong day against a Browns’ defense that’s underachieved. Meanwhile, running back Sony Michel is coming off a career-high three rushing touchdowns in last week’s 33-0 win over the New York Jets.
The biggest question heading into this matchup is whether Baker Mayfield can move the football consistently on offense without turning it over against this top-ranked New England defense. Mayfield has more turnovers than any other quarterback in the NFL since the start of 2018 and simply put, the Browns aren’t winning this game if they’re coughing up the football. The Browns have posted a minus-six turnover differential through their first six games.
Cleveland needs to get their running game going with Nick Chubb, keep the Patriots off-balance, and find a way to allow their star receivers to star. Both receivers, Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., have produced muted efforts this season, for the most part.
Trends
- Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games
- Browns are 4-1 ATS in last 5 games following an SU loss
- Cleveland is 5-20-1 ATS in last 26 games vs. opponents with a winning record
- Patriots are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games when favored by double digits
- New England is 59-3 SU at home vs. AFC opponents since 2009
Bottom Line
The Patriots have allowed 14 points off a pick-six and a special teams touchdown this season. If you take away those 14 points, the actual New England defense has allowed an average of just 3.7 points per game. That defense combined with an offense that actually leads the NFL in points per game and just added another weapon in Sanu makes the Patriots even scarier. While the Browns had the benefit of the bye week, there is nothing we have seen from them so far this season that would indicate they can hang with New England on the road this weekend. Bill Belichick is eyeing his 300th win and who better to get it off of than his former franchise.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Browns 16
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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 8
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Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+7)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6)
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5)
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.