Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Game Pick (2020)

Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield is an exciting battle that is sure to thrill AFC North fans for at least the next half-decade. Hopefully, the rivalry can span a decade or more, but Mayfield is going to have to start to show improvement after regressing from his impressive rookie season in order for that to happen. The Browns won pretty handily when these two teams met in Week 2, but the Bengals will be looking to split the home and home series and notch what could very well be their signature win of the season.

	CLE	-3.5 -110	o50.5 -110	-182
JOIN NOW	CIN	+3.5 -110	u50.5 -110	+155

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Overview

The Cleveland Browns sit at 4-2 on the season and have looked impressive outside of their two losses to divisional foes. Losing Nick Chubb to a knee injury has set them back, but they still have an elite backfield option in former Pro Bowler and rushing champion Kareem Hunt. The Browns secondary has not been healthy all year and it has shown up in the boxscore with the Browns hemorrhaging 31.2 points per game on the season. They are the only team in the bottom five of points allowed that currently has a winning record. They are the only team with a winning record with a negative point differential.

Luckily for the Browns, they have faced their Week 7 opponent before and have come away with the win. That was of course when Nick Chubb was healthy, and when Baker Mayfield was not dealing with a rib injury. Still, the most notable thing from that matchup was that Baker Mayfield looked highly engaged and had the missing swagger that carried him to his heralded rookie success. The Browns will look to sweep the season series with a win this weekend. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offense has been much improved. In 2019, with Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley under center, they averaged 17.4 points per game. In 2020 with first overall pick Joe Burrow they are averaging a much more respectable 21.5 points per game. Toss out the beatdown by the Ravens from the sample and they are averaging 25.2 points per game. Joe Burrow has been terrific for the offense, as has the first pick of the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft in Tee Higgins. A.J. Green has also returned to give Burrow a full arsenal of weapons at running back and wide receiver.

Cincinnati is 1-4-1 through six games of the season, but seem to be headed to picking in the top-10 once again. Sucking for Sewell should be their goal (he is much better than Jonah Wiliams), but the Bengals coaching staff would likely prefer to win a few games rather than mess with the bookends they have heavily invested in. The Bengals defense has consistently been an issue this year, they have talent on the defensive line and at safety, but neither has been good enough to hide one of the worst cornerback rooms in football. Week 7 will present a bigger challenge than Week 2 as the Bengals will be without superstar running back Joe Mixon. 

Trends

• Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road contests 
• Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests overall 
• Over is 6-0 in Browns last six contests as a favorite 
• Over is 4-0 in Bengals last four home contests against teams with winning records 
• Over is 4-0 in the last four contests between these two teams in Cincinnati 

Prop Bets

Tee Higgins 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tee Higgins has seen more than 60 receiving yards in each of his last three contests. He has averaged an elite 88 receiving yards per game and is poised to have another massive game against a banged-up Browns secondary. A.J. Green is expected to draw top corner Denzel Ward for most, if not all, of the contest, leaving Higgins to feast on the opposite side of the field. Higgins continues to emerge and has earned Joe Burrow’s trust, even prompting the quarterback to say that it is Higgins with who he has the best on-field chemistry. This is a two unit play at BetMGM.

Final Thoughts

The Browns at -3 seems like a steal, so much so in fact that this reeks of a trap game. The trends listed above suggest that the Bengals may be the better play, but recent on-field performance begs to differ. These two teams played already this season so we have data to go off, and the Browns were simply the superior team in that contest. The score was 28-13 late in the third before garbage time allowed the Browns to make the game look more respectable with a 35-30 final score. Tap the Browns for Week 7 at BetMGM, but keep it to a one unit play. 

The over/under full game is not generally my cup of tea, but the lean here is very clear. The trends tell the story for this one as these two teams combined for 65 points earlier this season. Furthermore, as mentioned above, the over is 6-0 in Browns last six contests as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in Bengals last four home contests against teams with winning records. Finally, the over is 4-0 in the last four contests between these two teams played in Cincinnati. 50.5 is indeed higher than one would like, but both offenses have proven that they cannot stop their opponents from scoring. There is no reason to think this contest will be any different. 

Pick: Browns -3 (-110) & Over 50.5 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.