Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds and Game Pick (2021)

Last week, the Cleveland Browns were one of two AFC teams to earn their franchise’s first playoff win since the 1990s. While playoff success is something relatively new to the Browns organization, their opponent has known nothing but success over the past two seasons. The Kansas City Chiefs aim to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots accomplished that feat in 2003-2004. The Chiefs have only lost one of their last 22 games as favorites, so the Browns will have to play their best game of the season to beat them. Will Cleveland’s “cinderella” run continue, or is Kansas City’s appearance in the AFC Championship game a foregone conclusion?

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Details

• Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Chiefs -9.5; O/U 55.5
• Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Start Time: 3:05 pm ET
• Television: CBS
• Last Meeting: November 4, 2018 – Chiefs 37, Browns 21

	CLE	+10 -110	o56.5 -113	+420
JOIN NOW	KC	-10 -110	u56.5 -108	-530

View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Browns vs. Chiefs >>

Overview

The Cleveland Browns’ win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week was monumental, considering it was their first road victory at Pittsburgh in 18 tries. The result is even more impressive under the circumstances, given how much adversity they had to overcome. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski tested positive for COVID-19 earlier in the week and was forced to miss Sunday night’s game. Not only did they not have his leadership on the sidelines, but the team facility was closed for multiple days throughout the week out of an abundance of caution. Cleveland was also without Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio and starting cornerback Denzel Ward, who was forced to miss the game after testing positive for COVID-19. None of that mattered as the Browns became the first NFL team in postseason history to score 28 points in the first quarter. The Browns will look to attack Kansas City with a rushing attack that finished the regular season with the third-most yards per game. A ball-control offense is a smart move against the high-powered Kansas City offense, but the Browns know they will have to score points to win.

The Kansas City Chiefs had not played a meaningful game since Week 16 when they wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Thus, most of their starters have had two weeks off to rest and recover while they awaited who their opponent would be from Wild Card weekend. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has an outstanding record off bye weeks. His teams are 18-3 SU off bye weeks in the regular season and 5-2 SU in the playoffs. Cleveland fans hope that they will catch Kansas City on an off-week if they are rusty from having the last two weeks off. However, if Reid were worried about how his team would look after two weeks off, he likely would have played his starters more minutes in Week 17. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the sixth-highest scoring offense and were the only team in the league to average more than 300 passing yards per game. Defensively, they ranked 16th in total defense and 21st against the run, allowing 122.1 YPG on the ground.

Trends

• The Chiefs are 21-1 SU in their last 22 games as favorites.
• Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
• The over is 5-1 in the last six games the Cleveland Browns have played against AFC opponents.
• The Browns are the 10th team since 1997 to win 11 or more games in the regular season and be double-digit underdogs in the playoffs. The previous nine teams went 8-1 ATS and 4-5 SU.

Bottom Line

It may have seemed like the Kansas City Chiefs were sleepwalking their way through the last two months of the season, as evidenced by their 1-7 ATS record. However, this has less to do with any roster flaws and more to do with the defending champions’ complacency and running out of things to keep them motivated. A home playoff game and a chance to defend their Super Bowl title should do plenty to recharge their batteries.

This year, many of Kansas City’s opponents have tried a ball-control style of offense to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. Baltimore attempted runs on six of its first seven offensive plays but quickly needed to resort to a heavy passing attack after trailing by 17 at halftime. The next week, the Patriots had 35 rushing attempts and possessed the ball for 31 minutes. Josh Allen of the Bills attempted just 27 passes against the Chiefs, which was one of three times he played the whole game this season and attempted less than 30 passes.

The common denominator is that all those teams lost by more than a touchdown to the Chiefs, and Kansas City dominated most of them in time of possession. The Chiefs are thought of as a quick-strike offense, but the reality is it is tough to win the time-of-possession battle against them. In their only game against playoff competition in their last five games, they held the ball for more than 41 minutes against the New Orleans Saints. Thus, those that think the Cleveland Browns can just run all game long while killing the clock and limiting the Chiefs’ touches are likely to be wrong. Per Jared Smola’s tweet, the Chiefs are expected to run the most plays this weekend.

If Cleveland had a better defense, I would like their chances to stay in this game more. However, in the eight games they played against playoff competition this year, they allowed 32.5 PPG. One of those games includes the Week 17 regular-season finale when the Steelers rested Ben Roethlisberger and other offensive starters.

The Chiefs have thrown for 2,419 yards in eight home games this season. That 302.4 YPG average was the third-best in the league. Meanwhile, the Browns allowed 288.2 passing YPG on the road this season, third-worst in the league. Cleveland allowed the fourth-most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which bodes well for Travis Kelce’s chances for a big day. The Browns have also allowed opponents to be successful on 47% of plays this season, which is tied for the sixth-worst mark in the league.

Do not buy too much stock in the fact that the Chiefs will be rusty entering this week. They will move the ball all game long and score early and often. The Chiefs will emphasize getting out to an early lead so that Cleveland will be forced to throw the ball more with Baker Mayfield. All of this adds up to a big Chiefs win in a high-scoring game.

Pick: Chiefs -10, OVER 56.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.