Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Game Pick (2021)
The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers meet for the second time in two weeks and the third time overall this season. The Browns beat the Steelers last week to earn their first playoff berth since 2002. However, they will face a much different Steelers team this week as Pittsburgh was able to rest several key starters. The Browns will also look a lot different this week as head coach Kevin Stefanski will miss the game after testing positive for COVID-19. Can the Browns overcome adversity and earn the franchise’s first playoff win since 1994? Or will Pittsburgh win their 18th straight home game against Cleveland and earn a spot in the Divisional Round?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Steelers -4; O/U 47.5
- Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
- Start Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Television: NBC
- Last Meeting: January 3, 2021 – Browns 24, Steelers 22
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CLE
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+6
-113
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o47.5
-110
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+220
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PIT
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-6
-108
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u47.5 -110
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-265
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Overview
The Cleveland Browns won 11 games for the first time since 1994 when Bill Belichick was roaming the sidelines. Their success was mostly because of a mammoth offensive line that paved the way for the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 1,908 rushing yards and 23 total touchdowns. Their rushing attack allowed head coach Kevin Stefanski to ease off of Baker Mayfield’s passing attempts, as his yardage, yards per completion, and touchdowns were the lowest of his three-year career. However, his eight interceptions were also the lowest of his career, while his QBR was a full 18 points higher than last year. Three of Cleveland’s losses have come on the road this season, but they also have four wins over playoff teams. In particular, Pittsburgh has been a house of horrors for the Browns, as their last road win against the Steelers was in 2003.
2020 was a tale of two seasons for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They started the season 11-0, which included three wins in consecutive weeks against the Browns, Titans, and Ravens. However, they ended the regular season losing four of their last five games and are a team with many question marks entering the postseason. One of those questions is the health of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Though Pittsburgh had a chance to play their way into the AFC’s No. 2 seed last week, the organization thought it was best to rest Roethlisberger, who has been dealing with knee issues. Pittsburgh ranked last in the league in offensive efficiency from Weeks 13-17. Entering Week 17, the Pittsburgh offense went without a first down on a league-high 37.4% of their drives. Pittsburgh will look to start this week’s game against Cleveland much stronger than they have started games in the past. Since Week 14, the Steelers have averaged a league-worst five PPG in the first half.
Trends
- The Steelers have won 17 straight home games against the Browns.
- Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against AFC North opponents.
- The under is 8-1 in Pittsburgh’s last nine night games.
- Cleveland has been leading at halftime in six of their last eight games.
Bottom Line
The narrative surrounding this game is that the short-handed Cleveland Browns are going into a building where they have not won in 17 tries. Not only will Cleveland be missing their head coach, but two key starters on both sides of the ball will be out on Sunday.
Pass-rusher Olivier Vernon tore his achilles last week and is out for the remainder of the season. In addition, three-time Pro Bowl left guard Joel Bitonio will also miss this week’s Wild Card game after testing positive for COVID-19. However, the Cleveland Browns have been dealing with adversity all year and are more than capable of being competitive in this game without the services of Vernon and Bitonio.
Many people wrote off Cleveland’s postseason chances after losing star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to a torn ACL. Instead, the Browns responded by becoming a more physical football team and won six of their last nine games without Beckham. Besides, COVID-19 issues are not anything new to the Browns organization. Two weeks ago, they faced the New York Jets without their top four wide receivers and their leading tackler after issues related to COVID-19. Cleveland did not find out they would be without their wide receivers until less than 24 hours before kickoff, so they had no time to put in a game plan without them. At least they have four days to prepare for life without Vernon and Bitonio, and Kevin Stefanski can remain an integral part of the game planning despite being quarantined.
Though the Browns have not had much success in Pittsburgh over the last two decades, they will not be afraid of their division rivals entering this matchup. The fact that they are playing a division rival bodes well under the current circumstances, as they should not need much time to prepare for an opponent they have already faced twice this season.
The Steelers will be one of the most heavily-bet favorites of Wild Card weekend because of all the negative news surrounding Cleveland. Look for the Browns to welcome these challenges with the same blue-collar mentality that earned them 11 wins in the regular season. Cleveland is a fantastic contrarian play, and they will keep this game closer than oddsmakers predict.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.