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College Basketball ACC Tournament Championship Game Preview (2023)

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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Game Info

Virginia Cavaliers (25-6, 15-5 ACC) vs. Duke Blue Devils (25-8, 14-6 ACC)

  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 11, 2022
  • Start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Greensboro Coliseum — Greensboro, NC
  • Coverage: ESPN
  • Last Meeting: February 11, 2023 — Virginia defeated Duke 69-62 in Charlottesville.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

  • Moneyline: UVA: (+125) | DUKE: (-150)
  • Point Spread: UVA: +2.5 (-105) | DUKE: -2.5 (-115)
  • Total: 123.5 — Over 123.5: (-105) | Under 123.5: (-115)

Betting Trends

  • Virginia 2022-23 Betting Trends: 12-17-2 ATS; 16-15 to the Over
  • Duke 2022-23 Betting Trends: 14-19 ATS; 13-19-1 to the Over
  • Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games
  • Virginia is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games against teams with a winning percentage over .600
  • Duke is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning straight up record
  • Duke is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win
  • The under is 7-2 in Virginia’s last nine neutral site games
  • The over is 19-6-1 in Virginia’s last 26 Saturday games
  • The under is 5-2 in Duke’s last seven neutral site games
  • The under is 7-3-1 in Duke’s last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over .600

Overview

This was the championship matchup oddsmakers predicted, as the Blue Devils (+280) and Cavaliers (+300) were the top two teams with the shortest odds pre-tournament. These two teams are also heavyweights of the conference in recent years, as either Duke or Virginia has competed for an ACC tournament championship in five of the last six years. This is the first time these two teams have met in the conference championship since 2014 when Virginia beat Duke 72-63 in Greensboro.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

Virginia started to raise some doubts that it was a serious ACC tournament contender with how it played for much of February. After a seven-point home overtime win against Duke, the Cavaliers beat ACC bottom-feeders Louisville and Notre Dame by a combined five points. They then lost consecutive games at Boston College and North Carolina by a combined 23 points and had won just one game away from home entering this tournament since the calendar turned to February. In addition, even Virginia’s win over Duke was not without controversy, as a foul that would have sent Duke’s Kyle Filipowski to the free-throw line to win the game with no time left in regulation was overturned, as it was ruled that it came after the buzzer.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

After losing consecutive road games to the league’s top two teams (Miami and Virginia) by a combined 29 points, the Blue Devils finished the regular season with six consecutive wins. Its eight-game winning streak is now its longest of the season (its previous high was four), and Duke has covered three straight games with an average cover margin of 11.7 points in that span.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Pick and Prediction

Duke’s season-long winning streak largely coincides with head coach Jon Scheyer’s decision to move Jeremy Roach off the ball and hand the lead guard duties over to Tyrese Proctor. But perhaps no team in the country is better at preventing dribble penetration than Virginia, led by the feisty backcourt combination of Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman.

We love Virginia’s experience in this situation as the fourth-oldest team in the country, as it should be able to withstand the pro-Duke Greensboro crowd. The Cavaliers entered last night’s semifinal win over Clemson with the lethal combination of a 60.4 points per game against average (best in the ACC), 16.0 assists per game (most in the ACC), and 8.5 turnovers per game (fewest in D-I).

The underdog is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings between these teams. And while we would not put anyone off opting for more value by backing Virginia’s moneyline odds, we are taking the added insurance with the small point spread.

Pick: Virginia +2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.