College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/24)
What a week it has been in college basketball! Purdue will likely be the unanimous No. 1 team in the country in next week’s AP poll after winning the Maui Invitational, and several other early season tournaments have their championships today, like the Battle 4 Atlantis, the NIT Season Tip-Off, and the ESPN Events Invitational.
Read on for Friday’s college basketball best bets.
Friday's College Basketball Best Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Villanova (-3) vs. Memphis | O/U 146 (-110/-110)
Villanova has allowed 72 or fewer points in all six games in regulation this season, and a big reason for that is a much improved interior defense that has been a weakness of Wildcats teams in the past. This year, Villanova is allowing opponents to shoot just 42% inside the arc (ranks 22nd in the country), and it entered the Battle 4 Atlantis allowing high-quality looks on 11% of its defensive possessions, per Synergy. The Wildcats also entered this tournament ranked in the top 15 in Haslam’s near-shot proximity denial. That will come in handy against a Memphis squad that is not overly reliant on the 3-point shot, ranking outside the top 115 in 3-pointers attempted per field goal attempt.
We also expect Memphis to use its length and defensive versatility to limit Villanova’s heavy pick-and-roll and isolation post-up offense, as the Tigers (like the Wildcats) rank in the top 30 in 2-point percentage defense. Memphis also does an excellent job of playing defense without fouling, ranking in the top 75 of free throws attempted per field goal attempt. That is essential when facing a Villanova squad that ranks third in the country in free-throw percentage.
Pick: Under 146 (-110)
Bryant vs. Xavier (-17.5) | O/U 147.5 (-112/-108)
Xavier head coach Sean Miller is not particularly known for his elaborate zone offenses, even back to his days in Arizona when his superior Wildcats teams struggled with Mike Hopkins' Washington 2-3 zone (Arizona was 3-1 against Washington in 2020 and 2021, but two of those wins were by three or fewer points). Now the Musketeers face a Bryant zone that was the driving force in one of the most surprising upsets of the college basketball season so far when the then-No. 10 FAU 61-52 as 23.5-point underdogs. In that game, the Bulldogs held the Owls to 0.76 points per possession and 0.68 points per possession at the rim.
Of Xavier's four players that have attempted 10 or more 3-pointers, just one (Gytis Nemeiksa) is knocking them down at better than 32.1%, and we expect Phil Martelli Jr.'s Bryant squad to cover as underdogs for the third time in three games this season.
Pick: Bryant +17.5 (-110)
UNC Asheville vs. Lipscomb (-1) | O/U 154.5 (-110/-110)
Many started to doubt UNC Asheville’s ability to compete outside of the Big South after losing its first two games to Michigan and UNC Wilmington by a combined 42 points. The Bulldogs have not done much to move the needle with their last two wins, neither of which was against D-I competition. However, we still have faith in the defending Big South champions, especially when facing a Lipscomb team that also lost its first two games to Wichita State and Drake by a combined 32 points and followed that up with two wins over teams ranked 318th or lower in KenPom.
Lipscomb ranks 32nd in the country in 3-point percentage (39.3%), but it has padded those statistics against the last two cupcakes on its schedule, as the Bisons shot 27.6% from beyond the arc in its first two losses. Lipscomb also only shot 19 free throw attempts compared to its opponents' 33 attempts in those first two games, which should prove troublesome against a UNC Asheville team that ranks in the top 13 in the country in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Reigning Big South Player of the Year, Drew Pember, has not even gotten going yet, failing to score 20 points in a game this year. Considering he had 19 games of 20 or more points last season, we believe this will be his break-out day offensively, and he will lead the Bulldogs to their first win over a D-I team.
Pick: UNC Asheville +1 (-110)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.