College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (2/16)
The weekend is loaded with several highly anticipated college basketball matchups, and none are bigger than the AP top 4 matchup between Marquette and UConn. Before we get there, we still have a solid 15-game college basketball slate heading into the weekend, including a Friday night Big East tilt, and plenty of Ivy League action, as the top four of who will be invited to the conference tournament continues to round into form.
We went 3-0 with yesterday’s best bets and 2-0 with last Friday’s college basketball plays, and we are back once again to build our bankroll heading into the weekend.
Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.
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Friday’s College Basketball Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yale (-6.5) @ Penn | O/U 138 (-108/-112)
Yale was projected to win the Ivy League in the preseason media poll, even being voted ahead of a Princeton squad that made a historic Sweet 16 run last season. So far, the Bulldogs have looked every bit the part of the projected champion, going 7-0 in their first seven league games, and two of their last three wins were against Princeton and Cornell, the two teams right below them in the standings and the only other two with a winning league record.
Yale showed some vulnerability in its last home game against Cornell, trailing by 15 in the first half and by seven with seven minutes to go, with its largest lead in the game being three points. While the Bulldogs did well to out-muscle the Big Red on the backboards with a 41-20 rebounding advantage, one could argue they also benefited from a generous home whistle, attempting 27 free throws to Cornell’s 11.
Penn may be just 9-13 on the season, but most of its struggles have come on the road, as it is 8-2 at home and 1-9 through 10 road games. One of those road losses came two weeks ago at Yale (74-58), but unlike Cornell, Penn hung tough on the backboards with 34 rebounds compared to Yale’s 35. Freshman Sam Brown was the only Penn player to score in double figures that day, but we expect more from the Quakers supporting cast playing in the friendly confines of the Palestra. We also do not expect Penn to shoot 28.6% again from 3-point range, as it has shot 38.7% or better from deep in six of its last eight home games, which includes an eye-popping non-conference win over Villanova.
This is a great situational spot for Penn, as it comes home for the first time after playing four consecutive road games, while Yale may get caught looking ahead to a massive road tilt at Princeton on Saturday. The Quakers are 5-3 ATS at home this season, and have covered 84.6% of their games as home underdogs (11-2 ATS) since 2018. We are willing to back the Quakers once again as home ‘dogs against a Yale team that beat them by just two points at the Palestra last season.
Bet: Penn +6.5 (-108)
Niagara @ Fairfield (-6)| O/U 146.5 (-105/-115)
It is not often that one team is a sizable favorite over another after losing by 24 points in the initial meeting, but that is the situation Fairfield finds itself in after losing at Niagara 96-72 on January 12. Fairfield never led in that first contest, but we expect it to be much more competitive in the rematch, as two of its players averaging in double figures (Jalen Leach and Brycen Goodine) were held to a combined eight points.
Since the lost to Niagara, Leach has been on a tear, averaging 21 points per game and shooting 60.9% from beyond the arc (14-of-23) in his last four. Leach’s shooting prowess is a big reason the Stags have won three of their last four, and seven of their last eight wins have been by seven-plus points.
Fairfield does an excellent job of playing defense without fouling, as it ranks 63rd in free throws attempt rate per field goal attempts allowed, which is a vital statistic when facing a Niagara offense that leads the MAAC in league play in that metric (40.1% FTA/FGA). And in the Purple Eagles’ last two losses, they have combined to shoot 9-for-37 (24.3%) from 3-point range, so that is Fairfield’s path to victory, as Niagra has five of its top seven scorers shooting 38.2% or better from beyond the arc.
Niagara is 10-1 ATS on the road and has covered eight of its nine games as road underdogs this season, which makes us even more intrigued by the fishiness of this line.
Bet: Fairfield -6 (-115)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.