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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/1)

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February has arrived, which means that college basketball’s postseason, with loaded slates of conference tournaments and March Madness games, is right around the corner. For much of the next month we will hear about teams’ tournament resumes, and the NCAA Tournament selection committee has its hands full this year, as seemingly every bubble team will have big wins on their resume with the rate that top 25 teams have fallen. The Wisconsin Badgers will look to avoid being the latest AP top-10 team to fall victim to an unranked team on the road, and we preview that matchup along with two others from the Sun Belt and CAA to round out our three-pack of picks.

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UNC Wilmington at Charleston (-3.5) | O/U 155.5 (-112/-108) 

Charleston gets a chance at revenge against CAA rival UNC Wilmington after losing to the Seahawks 78-69 on the road just 12 days ago. One knock against picking the Cougars in this rematch is that Pat Kelsey's team is just 1-4 in the second game against opponents they had lost to earlier in the season. However, instead of choosing sides, we expect a high-scoring rematch, as both teams should continue to take advantage of the others' deficiencies. 

Seeing the Seahawks 12 days ago will help Charleston prepare for their full-court pressure, and the Cougars will have no path to victory if it cannot sure up its isolation defense. 

UNCW managed a nine-point victory in the first matchup despite getting out-rebounded 46-38, and surrendering 17 offensive rebounds. The Cougars lead the Colonial in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, and are in the top 46 in the country in offensive rebounding rate, which keeps its offensive ceiling high for this rematch. Meanwhile, Charleston was consistently beat off the dribble by UNCW's backcourt tandem of Shykeim Phillips and KJ Jenkins. The duo combined for 38 points on 45% shooting from inside the arc, and they were largely responsible for the team's low turnover rate (four total). 

Perhaps the Cougars will benefit from a friendlier whistle playing at home, but 21 fouls in the first matchup suggests they cannot keep the Seahawks in front of them, and we expect the Over to cash for the seventh time in nine games that Charleston has been a home favorite this season.

Pick: Over 155.5 (-112)

South Alabama at Texas State (-2) | O/U 142.5 (-108/-112)

South Alabama is amid a three-game losing streak and is entering its third game of a four-game road trip. However, while the scheduling circumstances may be against the Jaguars in this matchup, we still expect them to compete well against a Bobcats team that has lost nine of 10 games and is just 1-8 in Sun Belt play.

South Alabama may not believe in moral victories, but it should come away from a four-point road loss at Troy (who is now 7-2 in the conference) as eight-point underdogs with confidence, especially since it won the turnover battle and scored a respectable 1.13 points per possession on the heels of one of its better shooting performances of the season (it made 11 of 21 3-point attempts). The Jaguars now rank third in Sun Belt play in 3-point shooting (35.2%) while Texas State's defense is last in the conference in effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage allowed (54.8%). Thus, the Bobcats will be forced to pick their poison defensively, and South Alabama has covered 60% of its road games (6-4 ATS), while Texas State is 1-4 ATS at home.

Pick: South Alabama +2 (-112)

Wisconsin (-1.5) at Nebraska | O/U 144 (-112/-108)

This college basketball season is historic from the standpoint of the sheer volume of AP top-10 teams that have lost road games to unranked opponents. CBS's Gary Parrish pointed out that those teams top-10 teams are under .500 (27-29) in road games against unranked opponents this season, and that 48.2% win percentage is 13.8% lower than the all-time worst win percentage in those matchups. While we do not like to makes picks game by game based on trends, that cannot be ignored, and there is much evidence pointing to the Cornhuskers that they should be able to stay within the number even if they do not pull the outright upset.

Cornhuskers forward Juwan Gary has missed the last three games with a calf strain, but his injury was considered day-to-day 12 days ago when he first injured it, and we are optimistic he will return to face the Badgers tonight. Even in Gary’s absence, the Cornhuskers have won their two home meetings with Northwestern and Ohio State, scoring 1.12 and 1.30 points per possession, respectively. Nebraska employs one of the most unique dribble hand-off offenses in the country (they ranked in the 99th percentile in frequency used entering the Ohio State game, per Synergy), and ranked in the 90th percentile in efficiency. In addition, Nebraska’s four healthy leading scorers (excluding Gary) all shoot 35.8% or better from 3-point range, and they should be able to score over the top of a condensed Badgers defense that ranks 11th in Big Ten play in allowing 38.7% from 3-point range.

The Cornhuskers are 10-4 ATS at home this season, and are 9-6 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of last season. We give them the upper hand against a Wisconsin team that has failed to cover the spread in any of its three games as road favorites this year.

Pick: Nebraska +1.5 (-112)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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