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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/13)

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The cream is starting to rise to the top in the SEC, and those teams comprise many on the short list of National Championship contenders. This week alone, the top three teams in the AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll (Auburn, Alabama, Florida) all easily won conference road games by 12+ points. And while No. 5-ranked Tennessee lost by 11 at Rupp Arena, it was to a Kentucky team that has Final Four aspirations of its own.

There are no SEC games on Thursday’s loaded college basketball slate, so we focus our attention on the most significant power conference game out of the Big Ten, as well as more under-the-radar games from the WCC and CAA.

Continue reading for a detailed breakdown of our college basketball best bets and top picks for Thursday, February 13th.

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    Thursday's Best College Basketball Bets

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Charleston (+6.5) @ UNC Wilmington (-6.5) | O/U 149.5 (-115/-105) 

    This is a matchup of two of the top three teams in the CAA as Charleston and UNC Wilmington are two of four teams who enter the day 9-3 or better in league play.

    UNC Wilmington won a thrilling 85-83 road game against Charleston on January 23rd, despite that game being played at the Cougars’ pace as one of the most up-tempo teams in the country (33rd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom).

    I expect this rematch on UNC Wilmington’s home court to be played much more methodically at its pace, as the Seahawks rank 251st in adjusted tempo.

    During UNC Wilmington’s eight-game winning streak, it has allowed just 70.8 points per game, despite its last game against Drexel going two overtimes. But the Seahawks allowed just 61 points in regulation in that matchup and the Dragons finished with fewer than one point per possession while shooting just 43.8% from inside the arc.

    In the first Charleston-UNC Wilmington matchup, the two teams shot a combined 90.7% (39-of-43) from the free-throw line. But these are typically the fifth- and 10th-best free throw shooting teams in conference play. There should not only be regression from the charity stripe, but I expect a cleaner game with fewer fouls overall as well.

    Pick: Under 149.5 Points (-105)

    Maryland (+1.5) @ Nebraska (-1.5) | O/U 147.5 (-110/-110) 

    Last Thursday we backed Ohio State as two-point home favorites against a newly ranked Maryland team and cashed while taking advantage of the Terrapins’ public perception, as the Buckeyes won by three points. Granted, the Buckeyes stormed back from a 17-point first-half deficit to secure the win and cover. But this is once again a great spot to fade Maryland, as winning on the road in the Big Ten is a difficult task.
    To beat Maryland, one has to be confident in their ability to negate Derik Queen, who is averaging 15.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game this season. While Nebraska lost 69-66 at Maryland on January 19th, it did as good a job as one can do on Queen, limiting him to zero field goals and just three points (all on free throws) over 26 minutes.
    Nebraska comes in hot having won four straight games following a six-game conference losing streak. And the Cornhuskers’ offense tends to come alive in home games, scoring 79+ points in three of their last four games at home.
    Maryland is just 2-5 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, while Nebraska has covered in 10 out of 15 games following a win.

    Pick: Nebraska -1.5 (-112)

    San Francisco (+14.5) @ Gonzaga (-14.5) | O/U 153.5 (-108/-112) 

    This is the only one of our three picks that is not a rematch of a game played earlier this season, as these two teams do not meet again until the regular season finale on March 1st in San Francisco.
    We have gotten so accustomed to Gonzaga dominating WCC play over the last couple of decades that it seems unfathomable for it to have three league losses in mid-February. However, the Bulldogs still rank eighth or better nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, turnover percentage and free throw percentage.
    While San Francisco defends the three-point line at the best rate in league play (25.1% allowed), the Bulldogs are not overly reliant on perimeter shooting, as they get just 25.8% of their points (11th-fewest in conference play) from beyond the arc.
    With this being the first matchup of the season between these teams, I am siding with the more talented Bulldogs, who are due positive regression after covering in just three out of 12 league games thus far.

    Pick: Gonzaga -14.5 (-105)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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