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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/29)

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The last day of February has arrived, which means March and all the “madness” that comes with it is right around the corner. Most college basketball teams have three or fewer regular season games left after today, so time is running out to be able to bolster NCAA tournament resumes. 

There are three AP top 25 teams in action today, all who hail from the West Coast, as No. 21 Washington State hosts USC in a Pac-12 tilt, while No. 17 Saint Mary’s and No. 23 Gonzaga hit the road in advance of Saturday’s mammoth regular season finale.

Read on for Thursday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Thursday’s College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Northeastern @ Delaware (-5.5) | O/U 142.5 (-108/-112) 

Delaware comes limping into this matchup with three losses in its last four games, with two of those losses coming as outright favorites. The main issue has been an ineffective offense, as the Blue Hens have averaged just 65 points per game in that span.

Delaware thrives on using its positional size in the backcourt and post-up ability of Jyare Davis to do most of its damage offensively in the paint, as it leads the CAA (and ranks 75th nationally) with 54.8% of its points in league play coming on 2-point shots. However, Delaware’s three losses in the four-game stretch came against opponents that rank sixth or worse in 2-point percentage allowed in CAA games, and even though the Blue Hens shot 56.4% or better from inside the arc in two of those losses, they were undone by an overall stretch of 14-for-62 (22.6%) shooting from 3-point range combined in those three losses.

Delaware will find interior scoring hard to come by against a Northeastern defense that allows just 46.6% of its opponents’ points to come from inside the arc. While the Huskies’ 7-9 league record stems primarily from a defense that ranks 345th in 3-point shooting percentage allowed, we do not expect Delaware’s cold shooting of late to take advantage of that weakness. Conversely, Northeastern prefers to grind games to a halt with the 11th-slowest tempo in the conference, and turns the ball over at the highest rate (19.4%) in the league.

The Under has cashed in four of Delaware’s last five games and is 14-5 in the Blue Hens’ 19 games as favorites this season, and we expect it to cash once again.

Pick: Under 142.5 (-112)

Michigan @ Rutgers (-7) | O/U 137 (-108/-112)

Rutgers has been non-competitive during a three-game losing streak, losing by an average of 18.7 points per game. However, two of those losses came against teams that entered yesterday .500 or better in league play (Minnesota and Purdue), while Michigan is playing out the string at 3-14 in Big Ten action, and has lost 10 of its last 11 games. It also helps that this is a great situational spot for the Scarlet Knights, as they are playing their second straight home game against a Wolverines team that has this game sandwiched between two of their biggest rivals on the hardwood (Purdue and Ohio State).

Rutgers was happy to get Mawot Mag back for its last game after the senior missed two of the previous three. Mag had scored in double figures in three consecutive games before the injury, and even though he has been limited to 18 or fewer minutes in his last two games, his impact on the defensive end is immeasurable. He will likely draw Terrance Williams as his primary defensive assignment, one of three Wolverines averaging in double figures (12.4 points per game).

Overall, a Michigan offense that ranks 12th or worse out of 14 teams in Big Ten play in adjusted offensive efficiency and turnover percentage should find it tough sledding to score against a Rutgers defense that ranks fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and forces turnovers at the 17th-highest rate (21.6%).

The Wolverines are just 2-7 ATS as road underdogs and 8-20 ATS overall this season, and we expect their disappointing season to continue in one of the toughest road Big Ten environments at Jersey Mike’s Arena.

Pick: Rutgers -7 (-108)

Saint Mary’s (-15.5) @ Pepperdine | O/U 137 (-108/-112)

With a win tonight, Saint Mary’s will earn its first outright regular season West Coast Conference title since 2011-12. While that would normally serve as motivation to play their best basketball, the Gaels beat Pepperdine 103-59 at home just two weeks ago, and the 44-point margin of victory was their most against a D-I opponent this season. Thus, we expect Saint Mary’s to be caught in a lookahead spot to its home meeting with Gonzaga on Saturday night, a team that has dominated the league for much of this century. As a result, we do not expect the most dialed in defensive performance from a Gaels team that ranks in the top two nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, offensive rebounding percentage allowed, and 2-point shooting allowed.

In the February 15th blowout of Pepperdine, the Gaels scored a blistering 1.51 points per possession, making 63.2% of their 3-point attempts (12-of-19) and assisting on 23 of 42 made field goals. And while Saint Mary’s did an excellent job walling off the paint and holding Pepperdine to 36.1% shooting inside the arc, the Waves still shot better than 35% from 3-point range, and attempted 23 free throws. Thus, the Gaels had a difficult time staying in front of Pepperdine’s shot creators, and the Waves make the third-highest percentage of 3-pointers (36.8%) in WCC play, which helps to increase their offensive ceiling against one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the country.

The Over has cashed in eight of Pepperdine’s 11 road games this and is 9-5-1 in its 15 league games this season, and we expect it to be the right side of this total again in a game in which they should not have Saint Mary’s full attention.

Pick: Over 137 (-108)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.