College Football Best Bets: Week 1 (2019)

Betting on the first games of the season in any sport can be a risky proposition. A bettor needs to take into account offseason personnel changes and predict how strong a team will come out of the gates. This fact is especially true in college football. So often there are coaching changes, players leaving early for the NFL or graduating, new starters on both sides of the ball, etc. If the Miami vs. Florida game is any indication of how most Week One games will play out, we could be in for some ugly football. Both teams in that game had inexperienced offensive lines, and it shows how disruptive to an offense that can be.

For Week One, my card will be smaller than it will be in most weeks as I will take more time to evaluate teams and gather more information. However, the following are my five favorite plays from the first full slate of games of the college football season.

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Best Bets for Week One: NCAA Football
(odds courtesy of Fanduel)
Last Week: 0-0
YTD: 0-0

Cincinnati -3 vs. UCLA
Cincinnati went to the Rose Bowl and beat UCLA 26-17 in last year’s opener. The Bearcats return their top three rushers a year after they finished 15th in the country in rushing offense. Dark-horse Heisman candidate Michael Warren II, their running back, is ready to become a household name after he rushed for 1,329 and 19 touchdowns last year. Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder is back for his sophomore season after he led the team to 11 wins last year. The Bearcats also return seven starters from a defense that ranked 8th in the country in scoring defense last year. Given the fact that Cincinnati went 7-0 at home last year and beat UCLA on the road, I am confident that the Bearcats -3 is the right side in this year’s contest.

BYU +6 vs. Utah (game played on 8/29)
One of the biggest things I aim to be consistent with throughout the season is going against or “fading” the public. I live by the motto that “they don’t have all those fancy buildings in Las Vegas for nothing.” This bet is the first example I see where something seems off about the line. Most places I look, anywhere from 65-80% of bets have come in on Utah. Utah is a favorite to win the Pac-12 conference. They have one of the strongest defenses in the country, anchored by a defensive line littered with talent. The Utes return quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss, who are both finally healthy. Utah is ranked 15th in the preseason coaches poll.

Utah has won its last eight games against BYU and is 5-2 ATS in their previous seven against them. Why is this line only 6 points? BYU returns quarterback Zach Wilson who took over as the starter in the team’s seventh game last year. However, there are question marks about his health as he recovered from shoulder surgery in the offseason. 

If we dig deeper, there is plenty to like about BYU in this contest. They have one of the best offensive lines in school history. BYU also returns most starters from a defense that finished the year 18th in the country in total defense last year. These factors, combined with the fact that the line has held at Utah -6 as the majority of the bets have come in on Utah, make me love the Cougars in this matchup. BYU may not pull off the upset, but I am confident this will be a one-possession game in the final minutes. Take BYU +6.

Boise State +4.5 at Florida State (game played on 8/31 in Jacksonville)
I’ll buy that Florida State will rebound and be remarkably better than their 5-7 record last year. But do they deserve that much respect in Week One, to be 4.5 favorites over an excellent Boise State team? Though Boise State has some uncertainty at quarterback, they return all five starters from the offensive line. That is an enormous advantage to have in the first game of the season. Florida State returns a lot of players at the skill positions, but Boise State’s stout defense will be up to the task. Keep your eye on Tropical Storm Dorian as weather forecasters think it may have an impact on the game, possibly forcing them to move up the kickoff. If it looks like winds will be gusting, the under might be another strong play. 

Oregon +3.5 vs. Auburn (game played on 8/31 in Dallas)
How could I not place a bet on the only ranked vs. ranked game in Week One? This is a fascinating matchup that pits strength against strength: Oregon’s offensive line vs. Auburn’s defensive line. Auburn is going to cause many teams problems with their tough and physical defensive front. However, one team that is poised to handle their pressure is Oregon. Their offensive line is one of the best in the country, and they will be protecting one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, Justin Herbert. In all, Oregon returns ten starters on offense. I love their experience compared to the inexperience on Auburn. The Tigers will start true freshman quarterback Bo Nix, and I fear that the lights may be too bright for him in this marquee opener.

I love the narrative that Oregon is playing this game with the weight of the Pac-12 conference on its shoulders. If the Pac-12 is to have a member of its conference make the college football playoff, teams like Oregon need to win these high-profile non-conference games. I think they will be a motivated bunch and will ride their experience to battle a tough SEC representative in Auburn. More aggressive bettors could certainly look at betting the money line (+140), but I am comfortable taking the 3.5 points.

Houston vs. Oklahoma over 79.5 points (game played on 9/1)
This is by far the largest total of Week One, and I still wouldn’t hesitate to bet the over. Neither of these defenses could stop a nosebleed last year. Also, this matchup features a pair of dynamic quarterbacks going head-to-head. D’Eriq King is back for Houston (after passing for 2,982 yards and 36 touchdowns). Oklahoma replaces its last two Heisman-winning quarterbacks with Jalen Hurts, who already has a national title on his resume. Hurts will look to connect early and often with dynamic playmaker Ceedee Lamb. Oklahoma has finished first in the country in total offense each of the last two years.

Houston will look to keep pace on offense under new head coach Dana Holgorsen’s up-tempo “air raid” system. Holgorsen’s West Virginia teams finished in the top-25 in total offense each of the last four seasons. I’d be nervous about betting the over if I didn’t think Houston could keep pace. However, I am confident that the Cougars will do their part even though Oklahoma may cruise to victory.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.