College Football Best Bets: Week 10
Last week provided a valuable lesson in the world of sports betting. The timing of when you place your bet matters. The difference between a profitable 3-2 week versus a 2-3 week was the Appalachian State-South Alabama game. We tipped South Alabama would be able to cover the 26.5-point spread early in the week, yet the closing number at many books was 27.5 or 28 points. After a 30-3 Appalachian State win, those who waited for the number to climb higher won their bet, while others who pounced early lost. Let this serve as a reminder to do your research and get as much of a feel as you can for how the line will move throughout the week.
We are exactly one week from the first reveal of the college football playoff rankings (November 5th). Oklahoma was dealt a crushing blow to their playoff chances after a 48-41 loss at Kansas State. While the Sooners can keep a glimmer of hope alive, fans of Wisconsin and Notre Dame cannot as their playoff hopes were ended with losses on Saturday.
Let’s take a look at some of the marquee games this week. One theme you will notice in many of this week’s picks, the “letdown game.â€
Here are my five best bets for Week 9 of the college football season.
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Best Bets for Week 10: College Football
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 20-23-2
Kansas State at Kansas (+6.5)
This game marks the 117th meeting of the Sunflower Showdown. It is also the first of our “letdown game†alerts of the week. Kansas State is riding high after a thrilling 48-41 upset of Oklahoma. The Wildcats were actually up 48-23 before a furious Oklahoma rally stalled. Kansas is coming off a big win (they are all big wins for Kansas) of their own. They kicked a field goal as time expired to beat Texas Tech 37-34.
Two games ago, Kansas made a switch to Brent Dearmon as their new offensive coordinator. In his first game in the role, the Jayhawks scored 48 points and totaled 569 yards in a near-upset of Texas. Last game, Kansas gained 527 total yards. Kansas quarterback Carter Stanley is clearly loving his new play-caller, as he has thrown for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games. Kansas State will surely attract more of the money in this matchup given their signature win last week. That is just the way we like it. Expect Kansas to pounce on an emotionally-drained Wildcats team and cover the 6.5 points.
TCU at Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Another Big 12 game and another prime “letdown spot†to cash in on. TCU is riding high after an exhilarating 37-27 win over their in-state rival, Texas. Freshman quarterback Max Duggan had his best game of the season, as he threw for 273 yards and ran for 72 more. However, one must realize that this came against the Big 12’s worst pass defense, and Duggan has looked ordinary in his other starts. Before this win, TCU lost two straight road games to Iowa State and Kansas State.
TCU now hits the road again to play an Oklahoma State team who also beat a ranked team last week. The Cowboys edged Iowa State on the road 34-27. Freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders committed eight turnovers in the prior two games but showed what he is capable of when he takes care of the ball. TCU has forced just nine turnovers in seven games and ranks 76th in the country in turnover margin. Look for Oklahoma State to protect the ball and find success on offense against a TCU defense that is still thinking about last week.
Virginia Tech (+17.5) at Notre Dame
The first two picks featured bets against teams that were “letting down†off of big wins. This is a pick against a team in a letdown spot off a big loss. Notre Dame’s playoffs hopes vanished after an embarrassing 45-14 loss at Michigan last week. This was the third 30+ point loss for Notre Dame in the Brian Kelly era. How much motivation will the Irish have in this one after such a defeat?
Virginia Tech comes into this contest rested off a bye. The Hokies are in the midst of a three-game winning streak that includes two impressive wins over ACC Coastal rivals Miami and UNC. In Virginia Tech’s first-ever visit to South Bend in 2016, which was also head coach Justin Fuente’s first season, they beat Notre Dame 34-31. They know what it takes to play well in Notre Dame Stadium, and they will do it again against a team with a lot less motivation than they had a week ago.
Georgia vs. Florida (+6.5)
This matchup between the Bulldogs and Gators may ultimately serve as an SEC Championship play-in game. Georgia and Florida both suffered their only loss of the season in Week 7, and both teams had byes in Week 9. Florida’s loss at night in Baton Rouge is much more forgiving than Georgia’s loss at home to South Carolina. The Gators also beat the same South Carolina team (38-27).
Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Though the favorite in this series is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, I am happy to buck this trend. Georgia has not played like a team that is a touchdown better than this Florida team. Take the points with the ‘dog in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.â€
SMU at Memphis OVER 70.5
Though it might seem counter-intuitive, many sharp bettors abide by the rule you should bet over the highest total on the board, and under the lowest total. That is exactly what we are doing by taking the over in this matchup. The AAC gets a rare night in primetime as the 8-0 Mustangs play the 7-1 Tigers. These two teams will put on a show on national television, as they combine for 82.5 PPG. This game features the sixth and 10th-ranked teams in the country in terms of total offense. The over is 5-0 in Memphis’ last five games and is 7-1 in SMU’s last eight games. Don’t be scared by the high total, as the over should once again hit with ease.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.